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AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类:摘要明确研究观察性因果推断中协变量平衡权重及处理效应的区间推断。

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关注这篇论文的作者
Erin Hartman
Chad Hazlett
Arisa Sadeghpour

加权推断:不同估计目标与重抽样机制下的残差化区间

研究问题
观察性因果推断中加权回归的稳健标准误可能过于保守时,如何在不同估计目标和重抽样框架下改善区间精度?
方法与思路
作者建议在结果对处理的加权回归中加入平衡协变量及其处理交互项,通过残差化构造稳健标准误并分析不同抽样框架。
材料陈述的贡献
摘要称精确平衡时该标准误在多种框架下渐近正确且更精确;近似平衡时,参数模型增广也能通过缩小残差改善精度。
阅读关注点
应核对各抽样框架的估计目标、权重估计不确定性的处理,以及精确平衡和近似平衡下有效性结论的区别。
阅读边界
这是 arXiv 预印本,不能据此认定已同行评审或获期刊接收;摘要未列出完整条件,不能将精确平衡结论直接推广。

原文摘要

Weighting procedures are used in observational causal inference to adjust for covariate imbalance within the sample. Common practice for inference is to estimate robust standard errors from a weighted regression of outcome on treatment. However, it is well known that weighting can inflate variance estimates, sometimes significantly, leading to standard errors and confidence intervals that are overly conservative. We instead examine and recommend the use of robust standard errors from a weighted regression that additionally includes the balancing covariates and their interactions with treatment. We show that these standard errors are more precise and asymptotically correct for weights that achieve exact balance under multiple common resampling frameworks, including design-based and model-based inference, as well as superpopulation sampling with a finite sample correction. Gains to precision can be quite significant when the balancing weights adjust for prognostic covariates. For procedures that balance only approximately or in expectation, such as inverse propensity weighting or approximate balancing weights, our proposed method improves precision by reducing residuals through augmentation with the parametric model. We demonstrate our approach through simulation and re-analysis of multiple empirical studies.

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