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分类依据与纠错

AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类:摘要研究随机试验中的处理效应推断,以及协变量平衡预检验和回归调整对推断有效性的影响。

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关注这篇论文的作者
Anqi Zhao
Peng Ding

随机试验协变量平衡预检验的随机化理论

研究问题
随机试验出现基线协变量不平衡时,先检验平衡、仅在不平衡时调整的策略,会怎样影响处理效应推断的效率与覆盖率?
方法与思路
作者从随机化视角分析两种基于平衡预检验的回归调整策略,分别采用协方差分析与完全交互规格,并结合模拟进行评价。
材料陈述的贡献
摘要称前一种策略可能低效且区间反保守,后一种较始终调整低效且区间过保守,因此作者不推荐平衡预检验调整程序。
阅读关注点
应核对两种回归规格、平衡判定标准和随机化渐近条件,并分别比较不调整、预检验调整与始终调整的效率及覆盖率。
阅读边界
这是 arXiv 预印本,同行评审及期刊接收未获核实;摘要未说明完整试验设计条件,结论针对所研究的预检验调整与区间构造。

原文摘要

Randomized trials balance all covariates on average and provide the gold standard for estimating treatment effects. Chance imbalances nevertheless exist more or less in realized treatment allocations and intrigue an important question: what should we do in case the treatment groups differ with respect to some important baseline characteristics? A common strategy is to conduct a {\it preliminary test} of the balance of baseline covariates after randomization, and invoke covariate adjustment for subsequent inference if and only if the realized allocation fails some prespecified criterion. Although such practice is intuitive and popular among practitioners, the existing literature has so far only evaluated its properties under strong parametric model assumptions in theory and simulation, yielding results of limited generality. To fill this gap, we examine two strategies for conducting preliminary test-based covariate adjustment by regression, and evaluate the validity and efficiency of the resulting inferences from the randomization-based perspective. As it turns out, the preliminary-test estimator based on the analysis of covariance can be even less efficient than the unadjusted difference in means, and risks anticonservative confidence intervals based on normal approximation even with the robust standard error. The preliminary-test estimator based on the fully interacted specification is on the other hand less efficient than its counterpart under the {\it always-adjust} strategy, and yields overconservative confidence intervals based on normal approximation. Based on theory and simulation, we echo the existing literature and do not recommend the preliminary-test procedure for covariate adjustment in randomized trials.

笔记与分组