Alcohol abuse and employment: a second look
酒精滥用与就业：重新考察AI 解读 ↓
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AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类：摘要处理问题饮酒的内生性和异质效应，并以非线性模型分析就业与失业概率。
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酒精滥用与就业：重新考察
- 研究问题
- 在同时考虑问题饮酒的内生性、劳动市场结果的非线性和个体异质性后，酒精滥用对就业与失业概率的估计如何变化？
- 方法与思路
- 作者提出兼顾内生性与非线性的新估计方法，沿用既有研究的数据和变量设定分析男性样本，并计算两个差异较大群体的效应。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要称问题饮酒降低就业概率并提高失业概率，其中就业效应达到统计显著；两个群体的估计差异显示异质性可能重要。
- 阅读关注点
- 应核对内生性处理的识别依据、非线性模型和异质效应的定义，以及与既有 IV 结果比较时标准误和推断方式的变化。
- 阅读边界
- 仅据所给 Crossref 摘要，不能验证因果识别条件或效应大小；新分析聚焦男性，不能将结果直接推广至女性或其他群体。
原文摘要
Abstract Based on data from the 1988 Alcohol Supplement of the National Health Interview Survey, Mullahy and Sindelar ( 1996 ) (M&S) find, for both men and women, that alcohol abuse results in reduced employment and increased unemployment. The estimates from which they drew these inferences were obtained via the instrumental variables (IV) method, which was implemented in order to account for the potential endogeneity of problem drinking. Though these IV estimates qualitatively supported the prior expectation that problem drinking damages individuals' labour market prospects, they were not found to be statistically significant. The present paper revisits this research and offers a new estimation method which, in addition to accounting for endogeneity, explicitly allows for the inherent non‐linearity of the underlying regression structure. The new method is applied to the same data and variable specifications as those used by M&S for the male subpopulation. Consistent with their results, problem drinking is found to have a positive effect on the probability of unemployment and negative effect on the likelihood of being employed. Unlike their result, however, the latter estimate is statistically significant. An appealing feature of the new method is that it accommodates the likely possibility that alcohol abuse effects are heterogeneous with respect to the observed and unobserved characteristics of individuals in the population. To illustrate this fact, abuse effects are computed for two widely differing subgroups of the population. The large differential between the estimated effects for these two subpopulations demonstrates the potential importance of accounting for heterogeneity. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.