Model selection in irregular problems: Applications to mapping quantitative trait loci
非规则问题中的模型选择:数量性状基因座定位应用AI 解读 ↓
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非规则问题中的模型选择:数量性状基因座定位应用AI 解读 ↓
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Two methods of model selection are discussed for changepoint-like problems, especially those arising in genetic linkage analysis. The first is a method that selects the model with the smallest p-value, while the second is a modification of the Bayes information criterion. The methods are compared theoretically and on examples from the literature. For these examples, they are roughly comparable although the p-value-based method is somewhat more liberal in selecting a high-dimensional model.
Google Play 用户评论情绪指数的统计基础:信号融合、收缩、分布验证与动态平滑
The decision problem is whether valence among the users who write reviews of an app has changed enough to warrant investigation of a release, outage, or support issue. We propose a statistical specification for that decision, applied to written Google Play reviews collected under a declared locale, language, sort order, retrieval cap, and window rule. That endpoint returns a selected collection rather than a random sample, so the index describes review writers under the…
用收缩先验建模动态相关矩阵
Estimating time-varying correlation matrices is challenging because existing methods may adapt slowly to structural changes, impose insufficient regularization, or produce diffuse posterior uncertainty. In moderate dimensions, an additional difficulty is summarizing the estimated evolving dependence structure for downstream decision-making tasks. We propose a Bayesian approach based on a low-rank factor representation, with latent states evolving under a dynamic shrinkage…
用非线性因子扩展贝叶斯 VAR 的灵活方法
This paper proposes a vector autoregression augmented with nonlinear factors that are modeled nonparametrically using regression trees. There are four main advantages of our model. First, modeling potential nonlinearities nonparametrically lessens the risk of misspecification. Second, the use of factor methods ensures that departures from linearity are modeled parsimoniously. In particular, they exhibit functional pooling where a small number of nonlinear factors are used to…
配对多元分类结局的关联 Tucker 分解个体化回归
We propose a joint individualized hurdle-ordinal regression model for paired zero-inflated ordinal outcomes with subject-specific, spatially varying, and time-varying covariate effects, motivated by the Iowa Fluoride Study (IFS). The two outcomes, dental caries and dental fluorosis, are measured repeatedly across ages at fine spatial resolution, yielding nested longitudinal data with substantial zero inflation, ordinality, and heterogeneity across individuals and locations.…
大型贝叶斯张量自回归
The availability of multidimensional economic datasets has grown significantly in recent years. An example is bilateral trade values across goods among countries, comprising three dimensions -- importing countries, exporting countries, and goods -- forming a third-order tensor time series. This paper introduces a general Bayesian tensor autoregressive framework to analyze the dynamics of large, multidimensional time series with a particular focus on international trade…
函数型时间序列结构畸变的检测
In the era of modern data science, the rapid proliferation of high-dimensional and functional datasets has fostered increasing interest in the investigation of paradigm shifts and structural breaks. Unlike classical univariate time series, structural changes in functional data need not occur simultaneously across the entire domain; instead, they may emerge locally, producing heterogeneous distortions across the underlying functional structure. The patterns of instability…