The bootstrap applied to power spectral density function estimation
Bootstrap 在功率谱密度估计中的应用AI 解读 ↓
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Bootstrap 在功率谱密度估计中的应用AI 解读 ↓
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A shortcoming in the use of autoregressive spectral estimation has been the lack of methods for placing confidence intervals or bands on estimated spectral density. The bootstrap method is applied to obtain nonparametric confidence bands and intervals. It is the aim of this paper to indicate how this can be done and to report on the outcome of some Monte Carlo studies of the properties of the resulting procedures. Some asymptotic theory concerning the properties of the bootstrap confidence band is also discussed.
非线性时间序列的同时推断:筛法 M 回归方法
This paper studies simultaneous inference of conditional distributions in nonlinear time series from a sieve M-regression perspective. Existing literature on sieve M-regression has primarily focused on pointwise asymptotics, leaving the development of uncertainty quantification over the entire predictor space unexplored. We address this gap by establishing a uniform Bahadur representation for the sieve M-estimator, accommodating dependent data and a growing number of sieve…
宏观与金融即时预测中的可解释机器学习:面向商业与政策决策的框架
Macroeconomic nowcasting sits at the intersection of traditional econometrics, data-rich information systems, and AI applications in business, economics, and policy. Machine learning (ML) methods are increasingly used to nowcast quarterly GDP growth, but adoption in high-stakes settings requires that predictive accuracy be matched by interpretability and robust uncertainty quantification. This article reviews recent developments in macroeconomic nowcasting and compares…
复杂时间动态下单调且平滑时变函数的同时推断
We propose a new framework for the simultaneous inference of monotone and smoothly time-varying functions under complex temporal dynamics. This will be done utilizing the monotone rearrangement and the nonparametric estimation. We capitalize the Gaussian approximation for the nonparametric monotone estimator and construct the asymptotically correct simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) using designed bootstrap methods. We investigate two general and practical scenarios. The…
复杂时间动态下单调平滑时变函数的同时推断
We propose a new framework for the simultaneous inference of monotone and smoothly time-varying functions under complex temporal dynamics. This will be done utilizing the monotone rearrangement and the nonparametric estimation. We capitalize the Gaussian approximation for the nonparametric monotone estimator and construct the asymptotically correct simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) using designed bootstrap methods. We investigate two general and practical scenarios. The…
谱密度函数的实用区间估计方法
The spectral density function can play a key role in time series analysis, where nonparametric interval estimation of the spectral density is a fundamental issue. However, the prevailing pointwise interval methods for spectral densities, including chi-square approximation and frequency domain bootstrap (FDB), can be misleading in practice, perhaps more so than appreciated, as confidence intervals often exhibit low coverage accuracy as well as high sensitivity to tuning…
局部平稳函数型时间序列均值的置信曲面
The problem of constructing a simultaneous confidence surface for the 2-dimensional mean function of a non-stationary functional time series is challenging as these bands can not be built on classical limit theory for the maximum absolute deviation between an estimate and the time-dependent regression function. In this paper, we propose a new bootstrap methodology to construct such a region. Our approach is based on a Gaussian approximation for the maximum norm of sparse…