Spectral Method and Regularized MLE Are Both Optimal for Top-$K$ Ranking
谱方法与正则化极大似然均可实现最优前 K 项排序AI 解读 ↓
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This paper is concerned with the problem of top-$K$ ranking from pairwise comparisons. Given a collection of $n$ items and a few pairwise comparisons across them, one wishes to identify the set of $K$ items that receive the highest ranks. To tackle this problem, we adopt the logistic parametric model --- the Bradley-Terry-Luce model, where each item is assigned a latent preference score, and where the outcome of each pairwise comparison depends solely on the relative scores of the two items involved. Recent works have made significant progress towards characterizing the performance (e.g. the mean square error for estimating the scores) of several classical methods, including the spectral method and the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). However, where they stand regarding top-$K$ ranking remains unsettled. We demonstrate that under a natural random sampling model, the spectral method alone, or the regularized MLE alone, is minimax optimal in terms of the sample complexity --- the number of paired comparisons needed to ensure exact top-$K$ identification, for the fixed dynamic range regime. This is accomplished via optimal control of the entrywise error of the score estimates. We complement our theoretical studies by numerical experiments, confirming that both methods yield low entrywise errors for estimating the underlying scores. Our theory is established via a novel leave-one-out trick, which proves effective for analyzing both iterative and non-iterative procedures. Along the way, we derive an elementary eigenvector perturbation bound for probability transition matrices, which parallels the Davis-Kahan $\sinΘ$ theorem for symmetric matrices. This also allows us to close the gap between the $\ell_2$ error upper bound for the spectral method and the minimax lower limit.
We propose a dynamic multiplicative factor model for process data arising from complex problem-solving items, an emerging type of data in large-scale educational assessment. The proposed model can be viewed as an extension of the classical frailty models developed in survival analysis for multivariate recurrent event times, but with two important distinctions: (i) the factor (frailty) is of primary interest; (ii) covariates are internal and embedded in the factor. It allows…
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Perturbed Utility Models (PUMs) represent discrete choice as utility maximization under convex perturbation or regularization, encompassing a broad class of choice models, including Multinomial Logit (MNL) and models that permit zero choice probabilities. Because, for general perturbations, maximum likelihood may be non-convex, and the negative log-likelihood is infinite when a sparse model assigns zero probability to an observed choice, we specialize the Fenchel--Young…
结合协变量与稀疏内在得分的实体排序
This paper addresses the item ranking problem with associated covariates, focusing on scenarios where the preference scores can not be fully explained by covariates, and the remaining intrinsic scores are sparse. Specifically, we extend the pioneering Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model by incorporating covariate information and considering sparse individual intrinsic scores. Our work introduces novel model identification conditions and examines the statistical rates of the…
可扩展的 VARMA 模型估计
Vector autoregressive moving-average (VARMA) models have long been considered impractical beyond moderate dimensions: the likelihood is non-convex, the parametrization is identified only up to equivalence, and every evaluation costs a pass over the entire series. Yet their moving-average term captures with a few parameters what a pure autoregression matches only with many lags. We introduce an estimation framework that removes this computational barrier: each optimization…
XMSE 感知的自适应经验贝叶斯估计
Empirical Bayes (EB) estimators can match the first-order asymptotic risk of maximum likelihood (ML) while behaving very differently at second order: recent excess mean squared error (XMSE) analysis shows that kernel-based EB estimation may be worse than ML when the kernel is poorly aligned with the true parameter. This paper turns that diagnostic into a design principle. We propose an XMSE-aware mixed estimator that interpolates between ML and EB shrinkage. Its fixed-weight…
弱矩方法用于统计推断:兼论稳健估计应用
A companion paper develops a generalised framework in which a probability law is represented by a tempered distribution $T\in\mathcal{S}'$ - on the same footing as a density or characteristic function - and information is extracted by pairing $T$ with a positive Schwartz kernel $\varphi$ that acts as a measurement instrument rather than as part of the law; the resulting weak moments of all orders exist unconditionally. The present paper turns this into a methodology for…