Miscellanea. Data sharpening as a prelude to density estimation
杂论:密度估计前的数据锐化AI 解读 ↓
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杂论:密度估计前的数据锐化AI 解读 ↓
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We introduce a data-perturbation method for reducing bias of a wide variety of density estimators, in univariate, multivariate, spatial and spherical data settings. The method involves 'sharpening' the data by making them slightly more clustered than before, and then computing the estimator in the usual way, but from the sharpened data rather than the original data. The transformation depends in a simple, explicit way on the smoothing parameter employed for the density estimator, which may be based on classical kernel methods, orthogonal series, histosplines, singular integrals or other linear or approximately-linear methods. Bias is reduced by an order of magnitude, at the expense of a constant-factor increase in variance.
当处理发生溢出:时空因果效应估计的神经网络框架
Real-world public health policies are often enacted by local jurisdictions, but their effects can ripple through connected populations. For causal evaluation, this creates a difficult spatiotemporal problem: intermittent policy updates create path-level treatments, and because spillover depends on neighboring treatment paths along with the focal-unit's own history, controlling time-varying confounding requires high-dimensional, multimodal information from both sources. To…
时空干扰下用于实验的聚类切换设计
We consider experimentation in the presence of non-stationarity, inter-unit (spatial) interference, and carry-over effects (temporal interference), where we wish to estimate the global average treatment effect (GATE), the difference between average outcomes having exposed all units at all times to treatment or to control. We suppose spatial interference is described by a graph, where a unit's outcome depends on its neighborhood's treatments, and that temporal interference is…
RBF 核高斯过程最大似然估计的精确渐近理论
Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used across machine learning, spatial statistics, time-series analysis, optimization, Bayesian statistics, and scientific applications. A central component of a GP model is its kernel, which is typically specified through a parametric family. Among the most widely used choices is the radial basis function (RBF), also known as the squared exponential or Gaussian kernel, owing to its simple form, smoothness, and flexibility. In practice, the…
保持收敛率的收缩支撑高斯过程预测
Gaussian process prediction is a central tool in spatial statistics, but standard implementations require dense matrix operations that become prohibitive for large datasets. We propose a scale-adjusted compactly supported working correlation for Gaussian process prediction, using the generalized Wendland family with a support radius $φ_n$ that is allowed to decrease with the sample size $n$. Under fixed-domain asymptotics with quasi-uniform designs, a fixed support radius…
对象值时间序列中的长程依赖度量
Object-valued time series, including distributions, covariance matrices, networks, and compositions, lack the linear structure required by conventional autocovariance-based definitions of long memory. We develop an intrinsic framework for defining and estimating long memory in metric spaces of negative type. An isometric embedding yields a centered Hilbert-valued process, and the trace of its lag-covariance operator provides a signed, additive measure of temporal dependence.…
随机特征方法与神经网络的平滑差异原则
We study data-driven early stopping for spectral regularisation methods in the classical non-parametric regression setting. Building on the discrepancy principle, we propose a multi-scale stopping rule that applies to general kernel estimators and show that, unlike previous approaches, it achieves full adaptivity over all smoothness levels in the well-specified case. A key contribution of our work is an extension based on random feature approximations, which reduces…