Replicate Histograms
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AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类:摘要明确为序列依赖数据建立有效性并展示时间序列诊断;空间随机场部分没有足够依据归入网络与干扰。
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The “replicate histogram” is introduced as a simple diagnostic tool for describing the sampling distribution of a general statistic. It can be applied to virtually any statistic that has an asymptotic distribution, and the data on which the statistic is computed may be serially or spatially dependent. The method is completely sample based, requiring no theoretical analysis by the user, no knowledge of the proper standardization for the statistic, and no specification of the underlying dependence mechanism generating the data. The replicate histogram warns the user of nonnormal sampling distributions and also indicates the type of departure from normality (e.g., skewness, peakedness). In the case of spatially dependent data, the statistic may be computed on observations from irregularly shaped index sets. Large-sample validity of the replicate histogram is established via strong consistency results, which are proved under mild conditions for both the time series and random field cases. Numerical examples are presented illustrating the diagnostic power of the replicate histogram for time series and spatial data sets. The bias, variance, and mean squared error performance of the replicate histogram are analyzed via second-order theory.
基于深度可分离神经网络的混频时间序列预测
To better forecast mixed-frequency time series, it is the key to choose a suitable way for frequency alignment. However, the existing methods are all limited to linear transformations, and this may overlook the possible nonlinearity, leading to a worse prediction. We alternatively consider a deep neural network for each frequency alignment, and hence a depth-separable neural network. Moreover, a parameter-sharing mechanism is adopted across the alignment at each stage,…
跨空间时间序列的预测驱动推断
The following motif is common in spatiotemporal settings: we have a sequence of covariate and label pairs observed for a relatively short, recent time period. We have access to unlabeled covariates over a longer time period. Data is observed over many spatial locations. For instance, crop yield might be observed over a large geographical area for recent years, but weather data (which is informative about crop yield) is available for a much longer period. The goal is to…
部分观测时间序列的潜变量驱动插补与预测:LIFTS
Partially observed multivariate time series pose two coupled challenges: recovering missing measurements and forecasting future trajectories when observation patterns are informative. Existing methods often assume ignorable missingness or use the mask only as an auxiliary input. We propose LIFTS (Latent-driven Imputation and Forecasting for partly observed Time Series), a probabilistic framework in which a latent process jointly governs the complete measurement trajectory…
基于条件异方差识别日度油价冲击及其不确定性
This paper develops a daily structural VAR for identifying oil price shocks from conditional heteroskedasticity and quantifies the transmission of their timevarying uncertainty. Identification exploits volatility clustering and spillovers in a structural GARCH specification and the complete identified set is derived. We derive covariance impulse response functions and introduce a time-varying forecast error variance decomposition (TV-FEVD) that allows for a decomposition of…
glmSTARMA:广义线性时空自回归模型的 R 包
The R package glmSTARMA implements autoregressive models for spatio-temporal data at fixed locations, with time-invariant spatial dependency structure. We rely on generalized linear models methodology and unify several approaches for the analysis of spatial count time series. Such models allow the (conditional) mean of the response to depend on past observations, lagged (conditional) expectations, and covariates. The response can be a continuous or a discrete random…
网络中的动态创新传导:理论、大 T 推断与滞后投入产出转换下的商业周期
I develop an econometric framework that rationalizes the dynamics of a cross-sectional variable by lagged transmissions of innovations along bilateral links between units. While nesting the Spatial Autoregression and Spatial Error Model as limits and producing equivalent impulse-responses in the long run, the Network-Vector-Autoregression (NVAR) I propose can accommodate general transmission patterns over time and yields "networked" transition dynamics distinct from those…