Local indirect least squares and average marginal effects in nonseparable structural systems
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不可分结构系统中的局部间接最小二乘与平均边际效应AI 解读 ↓
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We study the scope of local indirect least squares (LILS) methods for nonparametrically estimating average marginal effects of an endogenous cause X on a response Y in triangular structural systems that need not exhibit linearity, separability, or monotonicity in scalar unobservables. One main finding is negative: in the fully nonseparable case, LILS methods cannot recover the average marginal effect. LILS methods can nevertheless test the hypothesis of no effect in the general nonseparable case. We provide new nonparametric asymptotic theory, treating both the traditional case of observed exogenous instruments Z and the case where one observes only error-laden proxies for Z.
一般处理模型的高阶去偏估计量
We have witnessed tremendous progress in developing the foundation for econometrics and causal inference in the past decades. The most popular paradigm is the classical (first-order) semiparametric theory, in which a key building block is the (first-order) influence function. However, it is well known that estimators based on influence functions can be sub-optimal in various settings. To address this issue, higher-order influence functions (HOIF) are developed. However, most…
一般处理模型中的高阶去偏估计器
It is now well known that estimators based on influence functions can be sub-optimal in terms of convergence rates in various settings. To address this issue, higher-order influence functions (HOIF) are developed, generalizing the classical semiparametric theory. However, most existing results in this regard focus on treatment effect parameters defined in explicit forms, such as average treatment effects (ATE). In applications, economists are often confronted with tasks of…
未知系数线性系统的统计推断
This paper considers the problem of testing whether there exists a solution satisfying certain non-negativity constraints to a linear system of equations. Importantly and in contrast to some prior work, we allow all parameters in the system of equations, including the slope coefficients, to be unknown. For this reason, we describe the linear system as having unknown (as opposed to known) coefficients. This hypothesis testing problem arises naturally when constructing…
通过最优传输部分识别工具变量下的政策相关处理效应
Policy-Relevant Treatment Effects (PRTEs) are generally not point-identified under standard Instrumental Variable (IV) assumptions when the instrument generates limited support in treatment propensity. We show that PRTE partial identification in the generalized Roy model can instead be formulated as a Constrained Conditional Optimal Transport (CCOT) problem over the joint conditional law of the potential outcome and the latent resistance. The resulting multidimensional CCOT…
利用大量弱交互矩的构造性工具变量识别与推断
Instrumental variable methods are widely used for causal inference, but identification becomes especially challenging when instruments are weak and potentially invalid. These challenges are particularly pronounced in Mendelian randomization, where genetic variants serve as instruments and violations of exclusion restriction or independence assumptions are common. We propose MAGIC, a constructive and assumption-lean framework that achieves identification even when all…
识别应得决策规则以评估与实现公平
We study fairness in decision-making when the data may encode systematic bias. Existing approaches typically impose fairness constraints while predicting the observed decision, which may itself be unfair. We propose a novel framework for characterising and addressing fairness issues by introducing the notion of desert decision, a latent variable representing the decision an individual rightfully deserves based on their actions, efforts, or abilities. This formulation shifts…