Bayesian Dynamic Tensor Regression
贝叶斯动态张量回归AI 解读 ↓
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AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类:摘要明确研究自回归时间序列、脉冲响应以及多层网络中的冲击传播。
贝叶斯动态张量回归AI 解读 ↓
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High- and multi-dimensional array data are becoming increasingly available. They admit a natural representation as tensors and call for appropriate statistical tools. We propose a new linear autoregressive tensor process (ART) for tensor-valued data, that encompasses some well-known time series models as special cases. We study its properties and derive the associated impulse response function. We exploit the PARAFAC low-rank decomposition for providing a parsimonious parameterization and develop a Bayesian inference allowing for shrinking effects. We apply the ART model to time series of multilayer networks and study the propagation of shocks across nodes, layers and time.
网络中的动态创新传导:理论、大 T 推断与滞后投入产出转换下的商业周期
I develop an econometric framework that rationalizes the dynamics of a cross-sectional variable by lagged transmissions of innovations along bilateral links between units. While nesting the Spatial Autoregression and Spatial Error Model as limits and producing equivalent impulse-responses in the long run, the Network-Vector-Autoregression (NVAR) I propose can accommodate general transmission patterns over time and yields "networked" transition dynamics distinct from those…
国际溢出的结构矩阵自回归框架
Understanding how macroeconomic shocks propagate across countries requires structural models that can jointly identify country-specific shocks and their international transmission. Yet extending structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) to large multi-country systems is challenging due to rapidly increasing dimensionality, computational costs, and the proliferation of identifying restrictions. This paper develops a Bayesian Structural Matrix Autoregression (BSMAR) framework…
多变量计数时间序列分析的潜在空间模型
Motivated by a dataset of burglaries in Chicago, USA, we introduce a novel framework to analyze time series of count data combining common multivariate time series models with latent position network models. This novel methodology allows us to gain a new latent variable perspective on the crime dataset that we consider, allowing us to disentangle and explain the complex patterns exhibited by the data, while providing a natural time series framework that can be used to make…
用于动态有效连接的贝叶斯时变张量向量自回归模型
In contemporary neuroscience, a key area of interest is dynamic effective connectivity, which is crucial for understanding the dynamic interactions and causal relationships between different brain regions. Dynamic effective connectivity can provide insights into how brain network interactions are altered in neurological disorders such as dyslexia. Time-varying vector autoregressive (TV-VAR) models have been employed to draw inferences for this purpose. However, their…
图辅助分组网络自回归模型:贝叶斯非参数方法
Vector autoregression model is ubiquitous in classical time series data analysis. With the rapid advance of social network sites, time series data over latent graph is becoming increasingly popular. In this article, we develop a novel Bayesian grouped network autoregression model, which can simultaneously estimate group information (number of groups and group configurations) and group-wise parameters. Specifically, a graphically assisted Chinese restaurant process is…
大型随机波动贝叶斯 VAR 的快速精确变分推断
We propose a new variational approximation of the joint posterior distribution of the log-volatility in the context of large Bayesian VARs. In contrast to existing approaches that are based on local approximations, the new proposal provides a global approximation that takes into account the entire support of the joint distribution. In a Monte Carlo study we show that the new global approximation is over an order of magnitude more accurate than existing alternatives. We…