Bayesian Methodology for Adaptive Sparsity and Shrinkage in Regression
回归中自适应稀疏性与收缩的贝叶斯方法AI 解读 ↓
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回归中自适应稀疏性与收缩的贝叶斯方法AI 解读 ↓
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Bayesian and frequentist regularization techniques are commonly employed for estimating regression models from data. However, most existing methods require practitioners to pre-specify whether the target model is dense or sparse. A recent proposal, the GLP prior distribution, addresses this limitation by bridging the gap between sparse and dense model regimes in a data-driven manner. Despite its flexibility, the GLP prior incurs high computational costs due to matrix inversions and discretization-based sampling. This paper introduces a novel prior distribution, ACSS, designed to induce negative dependence between sparsity and shrinkage in regression models. Similar to the GLP prior, ACSS effectively estimates regression models across a wide spectrum of sparsity levels, from extremely sparse to fully dense. However, the ACSS distribution offers a significant computational advantage. Its Gibbs sampling strategy eliminates the need for matrix inversions and relies on sampling from standard univariate distributions, making it computationally efficient. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real data sets demonstrate that ACSS-based estimation is orders of magnitude faster than GLP. Moreover, in most cases, it also achieves superior estimation and predictive accuracy, underscoring its practical utility and effectiveness.
用于因果推断与模型发现的连续时间集合 Kalman–Bucy 平滑器
Data assimilation (DA) integrates observational information with model predictions to improve state estimation in complex systems. While filtering provides the basis for online forecasts by using only past and present observations, it can exhibit delays and biases when the underlying dynamics evolve rapidly or undergo regime transitions. Smoothing, which additionally incorporates future observations, provides a natural pipeline for hindcasting and reanalysis that yields an…
具有结构化收缩与持续性先验的贝叶斯广义网络自回归模型
We propose a Bayesian generalized network autoregressive (BGNAR) model for multivariate time series whose component series are associated with the nodes of a known network. The proposed framework combines the parsimonious network structure of the generalized network autoregressive (GNAR) model with structured shrinkage and persistence priors adapted from Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) modeling. We adapt Minnesota-type shrinkage to both own-lag and network-lag…
动态空间贝叶斯机器学习:美国代际流动与地理收入不平等应用
We develop a Dynamic Spatial Panel Bayesian Additive Regression Trees model with Horseshoe shrinkage (DSP-BART-HS) for high-dimensional spatio-temporal panel data. We jointly evaluate the model against a comprehensive suite of structural spatial econometrics, non-parametric machine learning methods, and small-area estimators across nine data-generating scenarios spanning 200 replicates each, including irregular spatial topologies, dense policy effects, and non-linear…
正则性引导的数据同化:双曲守恒律的分层贝叶斯集合卡尔曼滤波
We propose a novel regularity-informed filtering framework for data assimilation in the context of hyperbolic conservation laws and other time-dependent partial differential equations. We focus on systems whose states exhibit steep gradients and jump discontinuities. While filtering is widely used to improve numerical simulations by incorporating observational data, traditional filtering methods lack awareness of the spatial regularity of states produced in these systems. As…
用于非线性时间序列的贝叶斯分位数深度回声状态网络
Conditional quantiles are central to asymmetric decision losses, tail-risk assessment, and interval forecasts, but Bayesian quantile regression for nonlinear time series can be difficult when the temporal feature vector is high-dimensional. We develop the quantile deep echo state network (Q-DESN), a Bayesian quantile regression model conditional on fixed features generated by a deep echo state network. Conditional on a specified reservoir construction and feature map,…
用于方程发现的概率符号回归:算子诱导与正则化符号森林
Symbolic regression has emerged as a powerful tool for artificial intelligence-driven scientific discovery by learning interpretable analytical expressions that reveal governing relationships directly from data. Existing methods, however, often rely on heuristic search, struggle to balance predictive accuracy with expression complexity in noisy settings, and offer limited characterization of symbolic uncertainty. Probabilistic approaches that address these challenges in a…