Fully Nonparametric Estimation of Scalar Diffusion Models
标量扩散模型的完全非参数估计AI 解读 ↓
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标量扩散模型的完全非参数估计AI 解读 ↓
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We propose a functional estimation procedure for homogeneous stochastic differential equations based on a discrete sample of observations and with minimal requirements on the data generating process. We show how to identify the drift and diffusion function in situations where one or the other function is considered a nuisance parameter. The asymptotic behavior of the estimators is examined as the observation frequency increases and as the time span lengthens. We prove almost sure consistency and weak convergence to mixtures of normal laws, where the mixing variates depend on the chronological local time of the underlying diffusion process, that is the random time spent by the process in the vicinity of a generic spatial point. The estimation method and asymptotic results apply to both stationary and nonstationary recurrent processes.
具有分组边效应的降秩网络自回归
We propose the Edge-Grouped Reduced-Rank Network Autoregressive model (Edge-Grouped RRNAR) for multivariate time series observed over a network. The model allows transmission effects to vary across prespecified and economically interpretable groups of edges, while using a low-rank structure to capture cross-variable dynamics. This structure separates where network transmission occurs from which variables transmit and respond. We develop a topology-aware and block-specific…
用 BAND 缓解维度灾难:高维非参数分布估计
Minimax-optimal rates for multivariate distribution estimation are known to suffer from the curse of dimensionality. We propose a sparse Bayesian network approach in which each conditional probability is estimated using sparsity-aware conditional mean methods. The resulting estimator, \textit{BAyesian Network Distribution regression} (BAND), handles mixed data types in high-dimensional time series and achieves polynomial total variation convergence rates while allowing the…
涌现的传播复杂性:区分机制复杂性与相关异质性
Simple and complex contagions differ mechanistically; multiple exposures act synergistically in the latter but independently in the former. Yet correlated mixtures of simple contagions may appear complex when inferring global contagion rules, a phenomenon we call "emergent complexity." We present a measure of contagion complexity and an inferential framework for estimating mixtures of nonparametric contagion rules from time-series data. Our work reframes past studies on…
组成数据的 α 回归:涵盖时间、空间及组成型解释变量的统一框架
We revisit the $α$--regression framework for compositional data. We formulate $α$--regression as a non--linear least squares problem, study its asymptotic properties, and provide efficient estimation via the Levenberg--Marquardt algorithm. We then propose a permutation--based hypothesis testing procedure, derive marginal effects for interpretation, and provide a visual inspection of the effect of each predictor. We further discuss robustified versions, the inclusion of…
对象值时间序列的变点检测
This article is concerned with change point detection for object-valued data that reside in a metric space, which has attracted some recent interests in statistics and econometrics literature. The existing methods either focus on independent data or can only detect change in the Fréchet mean or variance. In this article, we propose a self-normalization (SN, hereafter) based statistic for detecting a shift in the marginal distribution of object-valued time series. Our test is…
含潜在因子的密度值向量自回归模型
We propose a density-valued vector autoregressive model with latent factors for multivariate time series of density functions. Motivated by weekly regional distributions of SARS-CoV-2 cycle threshold (Ct) values in Brazil, we study their distributional dynamics across regions. The Ct value is the number of amplification cycles required for the viral signal to cross a detection threshold (lower Ct values correspond to higher viral load). We estimate each regional density by a…