EFFICIENCY IN LARGE DYNAMIC PANEL MODELS WITH COMMON FACTORS
含共同因子的大型动态面板模型的估计效率AI 解读 ↓
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AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类:摘要明确研究动态面板、金融组合的共同潜在因子及信用风险分析。
含共同因子的大型动态面板模型的估计效率AI 解读 ↓
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This paper deals with asymptotically efficient estimation in exchangeable nonlinear dynamic panel models with common unobservable factors. These models are relevant for applications to large portfolios of credits, corporate bonds, or life insurance contracts. For instance, the Asymptotic Risk Factor (ARF) model is recommended in the current regulation in Finance (Basel II and Basel III) and Insurance (Solvency II) for risk prediction and computation of the required capital. The specification accounts for both micro- and macrodynamics, induced by the lagged individual observations and the common stochastic factors, respectively. For large cross-sectional and time dimensions n and T , we derive the efficiency bound and introduce computationally simple efficient estimators for both the micro- and macroparameters. The results are based on an asymptotic expansion of the log-likelihood function in powers of 1/ n , and are linked to granularity theory. The results are illustrated with the stochastic migration model for credit risk analysis.
极端协变量下的二元结果模型:估计与预测
This paper presents a novel semiparametric method to study the effects of extreme events on binary outcomes and subsequently forecast future outcomes. Our approach, based on Bayes' theorem and regularly varying (RV) functions, facilitates a Pareto approximation in the tail without imposing parametric assumptions beyond the tail. We analyze cross-sectional as well as static and dynamic panel data models, incorporate additional covariates, and accommodate the unobserved…
具有 S-vine Copula 结构的近似因子模型
We propose a novel framework for approximate factor models that integrates an S-vine copula structure to capture complex dependencies among common factors. Our estimation procedure proceeds in two steps: first, we apply principal component analysis (PCA) to extract the factors; second, we employ maximum likelihood estimation that combines kernel density estimation for the margins with an S-vine copula to model the dependence structure. Jointly fitting the S-vine copula with…
半参数时变面板数据模型的估计与推断
This article introduces a new semiparametric panel data model that accounts for time-varying coefficients and aligns with recent advancements in factor models featuring nonparametric loading functions. We propose a profile marginal integration (PMI) method to jointly estimate the unknown quantities in a series of easily implementable steps. The asymptotic properties of these estimators are established. Additionally, we provide a hypothesis test to assess the validity of…
半参数分位数因子模型的估计
We propose an estimation methodology for a semiparametric quantile factor panel model. We provide tools for inference that are robust to the existence of moments and to the form of weak cross-sectional dependence in the idiosyncratic error term. We apply our method to daily stock return data.
利用多种宏观协变量建模潜在脆弱性相关违约
We propose a novel time series panel data framework for estimating and forecasting time-varying corporate default rates subject to observed and unobserved risk factors. In an empirical application for a U.S. dataset, we find a large and significant role for a dynamic frailty component even after controlling for more than 80% of the variation in more than 100 macro-financial covariates and other standard risk factors. We emphasize the need for a latent component to prevent a…
预测市场风险的多层机器学习与计量流程:加密资产流动性溢出证据
We study whether liquidity and volatility proxies of a core set of cryptoassets generate spillovers that forecast market-wide risk. Our empirical framework integrates three statistical layers: (A) interactions between core liquidity and returns, (B) principal-component relations linking liquidity and returns, and (C) volatility-factor projections that capture cross-sectional volatility crowding. The analysis is complemented by vector autoregression impulse responses and…