Estimating vaccine efficacy from small outbreaks
利用小规模暴发估计疫苗效力AI 解读 ↓
← 返回论文列表与筛选
阅读说明
本页整理公开书目信息，不生成学术质量评分。AI 解读根据题名及所注明的摘要或原文片段生成，未完成全文核验，可能有误；具体假设、证明与结论请核对原文。摘要保留来源文本，未经模型改写。
DOI 首次登记不等于接收或发表日期。部分更正、评论等条目没有独立摘要；缺少可靠材料时保留待补状态。
引用量采用 OpenAlex 单条关联记录，不合计多个记录；关联记录可能包含正式发表版本，不等于此版本单独引用。缺失不视为零，引用指标不代表论文质量。
关注作者按书目中的完整姓名匹配，同名和姓名变体需人工辨别。相关论文先按共享细分方向和具体方法排列，再参考通用方法与发表日期。
分类依据与纠错
AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类：摘要明确分析接触传播、家庭及年龄组结构，以及他人感染与接种状态对疫苗效力估计的影响。
反馈分类问题
正在核对关联版本…
代码、数据与补充材料
正在核对对应版本的资源…
关注这篇论文的作者
利用小规模暴发估计疫苗效力
- 研究问题
- 当接种覆盖足以阻止大规模暴发、仅有小规模暴发数据时，常用相对发病率估计量究竟衡量哪一种疫苗效力？
- 方法与思路
- 作者在多类疫苗反应和传播模型下，比较均质混合、个体异质性及家庭结构三种社区中估计量的含义。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要称均质情形可解释为每次接触的相对易感性降低并给出标准误；结构化社区中估计量可能误导甚至为负。
- 阅读关注点
- 应核对小规模暴发的成立条件、接种覆盖与个体类型的关系，以及易感性降低、传染性降低和家庭传播的影响。
- 阅读边界
- 仅据版本未注明的索引摘要；具体传播模型和估计保证未完整说明，负估计值不能直接解释为疫苗增加感染风险。
原文摘要
Let CV and C0 denote the number of cases among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, respectively, and let υ be the proportion of individuals vaccinated. The quantity ê = 1–(1–υ)CV/(υC0) = 1–(relative attack rate) is the most used estimator of the effectiveness of a vaccine to protect against infection. For a wide class of vaccine responses, a family of transmission models and three types of community settings, this paper investigates what ê actually estimates. It does so under the assumption that the community is large and the vaccination coverage is adequate to prevent major outbreaks of the infectious disease, so that only data on minor outbreaks are available. For a community of homogeneous individuals who mix uniformly, it is found that ê estimates a quantity with the interpretation of 1–(mean susceptibility, per contact, of vaccinees relative to unvaccinated individuals). We provide a standard error for ê in this setting. For a community with some heterogeneity ê can be a very misleading estimator of the effectiveness of the vaccine. When individuals have inherent differences, ê estimates a quantity that depends also on the inherent susceptibilities of different types of individual and on the vaccination coverage for different types. For a community of households, ê estimates a quantity that depends on the rate of transmission within households and on the reduction in infectivity induced by the vaccine. In communities that are structured, into households or age‐groups, it is possible that ê estimates a value that is negative even when the vaccine reduces both susceptibility and infectivity.