每日简报

摘要暂缺

多变量缺失数据的完全随机缺失检验AI 解读

A common concern when faced with multivariate data with missing values is whether the missing data are missing completely at random (MCAR); that is, whether missingness depends on the variables in the data set. One way of assessing this is to compare the means of recorded values of each variable between groups defined by whether other variables in the data set are missing or not. Although informative, this procedure yields potentially many correlated statistics for testing…

似乎不相关回归的有效估计与聚合偏差检验AI 解读

In this paper a method of estimating the parameters of a set of regression equations is reported which involves application of Aitken's generalized least-squares [1] to the whole system of equations. Under conditions generally encountered in practice, it is found that the regression coefficient estimators so obtained are at least asymptotically more efficient than those obtained by an equation-by-equation application of least squares. This gain in efficiency can be quite…

多元自适应回归样条AI 解读

A new method is presented for flexible regression modeling of high dimensional data. The model takes the form of an expansion in product spline basis functions, where the number of basis functions as well as the parameters associated with each one (product degree and knot locations) are automatically determined by the data. This procedure is motivated by the recursive partitioning approach to regression and shares its attractive properties. Unlike recursive partitioning,…

半参数广义线性模型中快速稳定的限制极大似然与边际似然估计AI 解读

Summary Recent work by Reiss and Ogden provides a theoretical basis for sometimes preferring restricted maximum likelihood (REML) to generalized cross-validation (GCV) for smoothing parameter selection in semiparametric regression. However, existing REML or marginal likelihood (ML) based methods for semiparametric generalized linear models (GLMs) use iterative REML or ML estimation of the smoothing parameters of working linear approximations to the GLM. Such indirect schemes…

自适应 Lasso 及其 Oracle 性质AI 解读

The lasso is a popular technique for simultaneous estimation and variable selection. Lasso variable selection has been shown to be consistent under certain conditions. In this work we derive a necessary condition for the lasso variable selection to be consistent. Consequently, there exist certain scenarios where the lasso is inconsistent for variable selection. We then propose a new version of the lasso, called the adaptive lasso, where adaptive weights are used for…

摘要暂缺

分组变量回归中的模型选择与估计AI 解读

Summary We consider the problem of selecting grouped variables (factors) for accurate prediction in regression. Such a problem arises naturally in many practical situations with the multifactor analysis-of-variance problem as the most important and well-known example. Instead of selecting factors by stepwise backward elimination, we focus on the accuracy of estimation and consider extensions of the lasso, the LARS algorithm and the non-negative garrotte for factor selection.…

加性逻辑回归：提升法的统计视角（含讨论与作者回应）AI 解读

Boosting is one of the most important recent developments in classification methodology. Boosting works by sequentially applying a classification algorithm to reweighted versions of the training data and then taking a weighted majority vote of the sequence of classifiers thus produced. For many classification algorithms, this simple strategy results in dramatic improvements in performance. We show that this seemingly mysterious phenomenon can be understood in terms of…

摘要暂缺

小样本中的回归与时间序列模型选择AI 解读

A bias correction to the Akaike information criterion, AIC, is derived for regression and autoregressive time series models. The correction is of particular use when the sample size is small, or when the number of fitted parameters is a moderate to large fraction of the sample size. The corrected method, called AICC, is asymptotically efficient if the true model is infinite dimensional. Furthermore, when the true model is of finite dimension, AICC is found to provide better…

动态异质面板的混合均值组估计AI 解读

It is now quite common to have panels in which both T, the number of time series observations, and N, the number of groups, are quite large and of the same order of magnitude. The usual practice is either to estimate N separate regressions and calculate the coefficient means, which we call the mean group (MG) estimator, or to pool the data and assume that the slope coefficients and error variances are identical. In this article we propose an intermediate procedure, the…

利用 Gap 统计量估计数据集中的聚类数AI 解读

Summary We propose a method (the ‘gap statistic’) for estimating the number of clusters (groups) in a set of data. The technique uses the output of any clustering algorithm (e.g. K-means or hierarchical), comparing the change in within-cluster dispersion with that expected under an appropriate reference null distribution. Some theory is developed for the proposal and a simulation study shows that the gap statistic usually outperforms other methods that have been proposed in…

空间相互作用与格点系统的统计分析AI 解读

Summary The formulation of conditional probability models for finite systems of spatially interacting random variables is examined. A simple alternative proof of the Hammersley–Clifford theorem is presented and the theorem is then used to construct specific spatial schemes on and off the lattice. Particular emphasis is placed upon practical applications of the models in plant ecology when the variates are binary or Gaussian. Some aspects of infinite lattice Gaussian…

时间序列模型拟合不足的一种度量AI 解读

The overall test for lack of fit in autoregressive-moving average models proposed by Box & Pierce (1970) is considered. It is shown that a substantially improved approximation results from a simple modification of this test. Some consideration is given to the power of such tests and their robustness when the innovations are nonnormal. Similar modifications in the overall tests used for transfer function-noise models are proposed

Kolmogorov–Smirnov 拟合优度检验AI 解读

The test is based on the maximum difference between an empirical and a hypothetical cumulative distribution. Percentage points are tabled, and a lower bound to the power function is charted. Confidence limits for a cumulative distribution are described. Examples are given. Indications that the test is superior to the chi-square test are cited.

可逆跳跃马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛计算与贝叶斯模型判定AI 解读

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian computation have until recently been restricted to problems where the joint distribution of all variables has a density with respect to some fixed standard underlying measure. They have therefore not been available for application to Bayesian model determination, where the dimensionality of the parameter vector is typically not fixed. This paper proposes a new framework for the construction of reversible Markov chain samplers…

错误发现率的直接处理方法AI 解读

Summary Multiple-hypothesis testing involves guarding against much more complicated errors than single-hypothesis testing. Whereas we typically control the type I error rate for a single-hypothesis test, a compound error rate is controlled for multiple-hypothesis tests. For example, controlling the false discovery rate FDR traditionally involves intricate sequential p-value rejection methods based on the observed data. Whereas a sequential p-value method fixes the error rate…

关于决定系数一般定义的一则札记AI 解读

A generalization of the coefficient of determination R2 to general regression models is discussed. A modification of an earlier definition to allow for discrete models is proposed.

基于加权残差的比例风险检验与诊断AI 解读

SUMMARY Nonproportional hazards can often be expressed by extending the Cox model to include time varying coefficients; e.g., for a single covariate, the hazard function for subject i is modelled as exp { fl(t)Zi(t)}. A common example is a treatment effect that decreases with time. We show that the function /3(t) can be directly visualized by smoothing an appropriate residual plot. Also, many tests of proportional hazards, including those of Cox (1972), Gill & Schumacher…

摘要暂缺

比较案例研究的合成控制方法：估计加州控烟计划的效果AI 解读

Building on an idea in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), this article investigates the application of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies. We discuss the advantages of these methods and apply them to study the effects of Proposition 99, a large-scale tobacco control program that California implemented in 1988. We demonstrate that, following Proposition 99, tobacco consumption fell markedly in California relative to a comparable synthetic control region. We…

局部加权回归：以局部拟合开展回归分析AI 解读

Locally weighted regression, or loess, is a way of estimating a regression surface through a multivariate smoothing procedure, fitting a function of the independent variables locally and in a moving fashion analogous to how a moving average is computed for a time series. With local fitting we can estimate a much wider class of regression surfaces than with the usual classes of parametric functions, such as polynomials. The goal of this article is to show, through…

利用积分嵌套拉普拉斯近似进行潜在高斯模型的近似贝叶斯推断AI 解读

Summary Structured additive regression models are perhaps the most commonly used class of models in statistical applications. It includes, among others, (generalized) linear models, (generalized) additive models, smoothing spline models, state space models, semiparametric regression, spatial and spatiotemporal models, log-Gaussian Cox processes and geostatistical and geoadditive models. We consider approximate Bayesian inference in a popular subset of structured additive…