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部分区间删失事件时间结局的半参数贝叶斯工具变量分析AI 解读

This paper develops a semiparametric Bayesian instrumental variable analysis method for estimating the causal effect of an endogenous variable when dealing with unobserved confounders and measurement errors with partly interval-censored time-to-event data, where event times are observed exactly for some subjects but left-censored, right-censored, or interval-censored for others. Our method is based on a two-stage Dirichlet process mixture instrumental variable (DPMIV) model…

三重差分工具变量设计AI 解读

In this paper, we formalize a triple instrumented difference-in-differences (DID-IV). In this design, a triple Wald-DID estimand, which divides the difference-in-difference-in-differences (DDD) estimand of the outcome by the DDD estimand of the treatment, captures the local average treatment effect on the treated. The identifying assumptions mainly comprise a monotonicity assumption, and the common acceleration assumptions in the treatment and the outcome. We extend the…

兼顾溢出与延续效应的极小极大最优实验设计AI 解读

In various applications, the potential outcome of a unit may be influenced by the treatments received by other units, a phenomenon known as interference, as well as by prior treatments, referred to as carryover effects. These phenomena violate the stable unit treatment value assumption and pose significant challenges in causal inference. To address these complexities, we propose a minimax optimal experimental design that simultaneously accounts for both spillover and…

放宽无混杂性假设的一般方法AI 解读

This paper defines a general class of relaxations of the unconfoundedness assumption. This class includes several previous approaches as special cases, including the marginal sensitivity model of Tan (2006). This class therefore allows us to precisely compare and contrast these previously disparate relaxations. We use this class to derive a variety of new identification results which can be used to assess sensitivity to unconfoundedness. In particular, the prior literature…

不变因果预测与不变性引导正则化的基本计算极限AI 解读

Pursuing invariant prediction from heterogeneous environments opens the door to learning causality in a purely data-driven way and has several applications in causal discovery and robust transfer learning. However, existing methods such as ICP [Peters et al., 2016] and EILLS [Fan et al., 2024] that can attain sample-efficient estimation are based on exponential time algorithms. In this paper, we show that such a problem is intrinsically hard in computation: the decision…

不完备离散选择模型的通用推断AI 解读

A growing number of empirical models exhibit set-valued predictions. This paper develops a tractable inference method with finite-sample validity for such models. The proposed procedure uses a robust version of the universal inference framework by Wasserman et al. (2020) and avoids using moment selection tuning parameters, resampling, or simulations. The method is designed for constructing confidence intervals for counterfactual objects and other functionals of the…

RieszBoost：用于 Riesz 回归的梯度提升AI 解读

Answering causal questions often involves estimating linear functionals of conditional expectations, such as the average treatment effect or the effect of a longitudinal modified treatment policy. By the Riesz representation theorem, these functionals can be expressed as the expected product of the conditional expectation of the outcome and the Riesz representer, a key component in doubly robust estimation methods. Traditionally, the Riesz representer is estimated indirectly…

The bootstrap is widely used to construct confidence intervals but may perform poorly for some estimators. We consider semiparametric estimators that use cross-validation to estimate nuisance pa- rameters and can be computationally expensive in large datasets. We illustrate potential problems with bootstrapping with replacement when cross-validation is used and extend the cheap bootstrap confidence interval to subsampling without replacement for asymptotically linear…

纵向比例效应模型的批判性评估AI 解读

Nonlinear longitudinal proportional effect models have been proposed to improve power and provide direct estimates of the proportional treatment effect in randomized clinical trials. These models assume a fixed proportional treatment effect over time, which can lead to bias and Type I error inflation when the assumption is violated. Even when the proportional effect assumption holds, these models are biased, and their inference is sensitive to the labeling of treatment…

二部实验中基于设计的因果推断AI 解读

Bipartite experiments arise in various fields, in which the treatments are randomized over one set of units, while the outcomes are measured over another separate set of units. However, existing methods often rely on strong model assumptions about the data-generating process. Under the potential outcomes formulation, we explore design-based causal inference in bipartite experiments under weak assumptions by leveraging the sparsity structure of the bipartite graph that…

PUATE：处理组与未标记个体的高效平均处理效应估计AI 解读

The estimation of average treatment effects (ATEs), defined as the difference in expected outcomes between treatment and control groups, is a central topic in causal inference. This study develops semiparametric efficient estimators for ATE in a setting where only a treatment group and an unlabeled group, consisting of units whose treatment status is unknown, are observed. This scenario constitutes a variant of learning from positive and unlabeled data (PU learning) and can…

处理历史部分可观测时动态处理效应的识别AI 解读

This paper presents a general difference-in-differences framework for identifying path-dependent treatment effects when treatment histories are partially observed. We introduce a novel robust estimator that adjusts for missing histories using a combination of outcome, propensity score, and missing treatment models. We show that this approach identifies the target parameter as long as \textit{any two} of the three models are correctly specified. The method delivers improved…

小样本下的量子增强因果发现AI 解读

The discovery of causal relations from observed data has attracted significant interest from disciplines such as economics, social sciences, and biology. In practical applications, considerable knowledge of the underlying systems is often unavailable, and real data are usually associated with nonlinear causal structures, which makes the direct use of most conventional causality analysis methods difficult. This study proposes a novel quantum Peter-Clark (qPC) algorithm for…

因果效应的广义粗化混杂调整：大样本框架AI 解读

There has been widespread use of causal inference methods for the rigorous analysis of observational studies and to identify policy evaluations. In this article, we consider a class of generalized coarsened procedures for confounding. At a high level, these procedures can be viewed as performing a clustering of confounding variables, followed by treatment effect and attendant variance estimation using the confounder strata. In addition, we propose two new algorithms for…

利用高阶累积量限制识别与估计联立方程模型AI 解读

Identifying structural parameters in linear simultaneous-equation models is a longstanding challenge. Recent work exploits information in higher-order moments of non-Gaussian data. In this literature, the structural errors are typically assumed to be uncorrelated so that, after standardizing the covariance matrix of the observables (whitening), the structural parameter matrix becomes orthogonal -- a device that underpins many identification proofs but can be restrictive in…

超越单调性假设的半参数主分层分析AI 解读

Intercurrent events, common in clinical trials and observational studies, affect the existence or interpretation of final outcomes. Principal stratification addresses this challenge by defining local average treatment effect estimands within subpopulations, but often relies on restrictive assumptions such as monotonicity and counterfactual intermediate independence. To overcome these limitations, we propose a semiparametric framework for principal stratification analysis…

COADVISE：随机对照试验中结合变量选择的协变量调整AI 解读

Adjusting for covariates in randomized controlled trials can enhance the credibility and efficiency of treatment effect estimation. However, handling numerous covariates and their complex (non-linear) transformations poses a challenge. Motivated by the case study of the Best Apnea Interventions for Research (BestAIR) trial data from the National Sleep Research Resource (NSRR), where the number of covariates (p=114) is comparable to the sample size (N=196), we propose a…

平均斯勒茨基对称性的不可检验性AI 解读

Slutsky symmetry and negative semidefiniteness are necessary and sufficient conditions for the rationality of demand functions. While the empirical implications of Slutsky negative semidefiniteness in repeated cross-sectional demand data are well understood, the empirical content of Slutsky symmetry remains largely unexplored. This paper takes an important first step toward addressing this gap. We show that the average Slutsky matrix is not identified and that its identified…

利用代理变量高效估计存在未测混杂的平均处理效应AI 解读

Proximal causal inference provides a framework for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in the presence of unmeasured confounding by leveraging outcome and treatment proxies. Identification in this framework relies on the existence of a so-called bridge function. Standard approaches typically postulate a parametric specification for the bridge function, which is estimated in a first step and then plugged into an ATE estimator. However, this sequential procedure…

通用因子模型AI 解读

We propose a new factor analysis framework and estimators of the factors and loadings that are robust to certain weak factors in a large $N$ and large $T$ setting. Our framework, by simultaneously considering all quantile levels of the outcome variable, induces standard mean and quantile factor models, but the factors can have an arbitrarily weak influence on the outcome's mean or quantile at most quantile levels. Our method estimates the factor space at the $\sqrt{N}$-rate…

区间结果下的预测集与共形推断AI 解读

Given data on a random variable \(Y\), a prediction set with miscoverage level \(α\in (0,1)\) is a set that contains a new draw of \(Y\) with probability \(1-α\). Among all prediction sets satisfying this coverage property, the oracle prediction set is the one with minimal volume. The oracle prediction set offers a complementary view of the distribution of \(Y\), beyond point estimators such as the mean and quantiles, and has attracted considerable interest recently. This…

大状态空间动态离散选择模型的模型自适应方法AI 解读

Estimation and counterfactual experiments in dynamic discrete choice models with large state spaces pose computational difficulties. This paper proposes a model-adaptive approach, based on the conjugate gradient (CG) method, to solve the linear system of fixed point equations of the policy valuation operator. We propose a model-adaptive sieve space, constructed by iteratively augmenting the space with the residual from the previous iteration. We show both theoretically and…

用线性混合模型检测整群随机试验处理效应异质性：样本量与功效教程AI 解读

Cluster-randomized trials (CRTs) are a well-established class of designs for evaluating community-based interventions. An essential task in planning these trials is determining the number of clusters and cluster sizes needed to achieve sufficient statistical power for detecting a clinically relevant effect size. While methods for evaluating the average treatment effect (ATE) for the entire study population are well-established, sample size methods for testing heterogeneity…

气候分析中含隐藏动态过程的一般因果结构学习AI 解读

Understanding climate dynamics requires going beyond correlations in observational data to uncover the underlying causal process. Latent drivers such as atmospheric processes play a central role in temporal dynamics, while direct causal influences also exist among geographically proximate observed variables. Traditional Causal Representation Learning (CRL) typically focuses on latent factors but overlooks such observable-to-observable causal relations, which limits its…