每日简报

使用协变量的回归不连续设计AI 解读

We study regression discontinuity designs when covariates are included in the estimation. We examine local polynomial estimators that include discrete or continuous covariates in an additive separable way, but without imposing any parametric restrictions on the underlying population regression functions. We recommend a covariate-adjustment approach that retains consistency under intuitive conditions, and characterize the potential for estimation and inference improvements.…

确定度修正随机区块模型的社区数量AI 解读

We propose to estimate the number of communities in degree-corrected stochastic block models based on a pseudo likelihood ratio statistic. To this end, we introduce a method that combines spectral clustering with binary segmentation. This approach guarantees an upper bound for the pseudo likelihood ratio statistic when the model is over-fitted. We also derive its limiting distribution when the model is under-fitted. Based on these properties, we establish the consistency of…

控制变量、离散工具变量与结构函数识别AI 解读

Control variables provide an important means of controlling for endogeneity in econometric models with nonseparable and/or multidimensional heterogeneity. We allow for discrete instruments, giving identification results under a variety of restrictions on the way the endogenous variable and the control variables affect the outcome. We consider many structural objects of interest, such as average or quantile treatment effects. We illustrate our results with an empirical…

断点回归中稳健偏差修正推断的最优带宽选择AI 解读

Modern empirical work in Regression Discontinuity (RD) designs often employs local polynomial estimation and inference with a mean square error (MSE) optimal bandwidth choice. This bandwidth yields an MSE-optimal RD treatment effect estimator, but is by construction invalid for inference. Robust bias corrected (RBC) inference methods are valid when using the MSE-optimal bandwidth, but we show they yield suboptimal confidence intervals in terms of coverage error. We establish…

因果与结构效应的自动去偏机器学习AI 解读

Many causal and structural effects depend on regressions. Examples include policy effects, average derivatives, regression decompositions, average treatment effects, causal mediation, and parameters of economic structural models. The regressions may be high dimensional, making machine learning useful. Plugging machine learners into identifying equations can lead to poor inference due to bias from regularization and/or model selection. This paper gives automatic debiasing for…

交错实施双重差分的设计型分析AI 解读

In this paper we study estimation of and inference for average treatment effects in a setting with panel data. We focus on the setting where units, e.g., individuals, firms, or states, adopt the policy or treatment of interest at a particular point in time, and then remain exposed to this treatment at all times afterwards. We take a design perspective where we investigate the properties of estimators and procedures given assumptions on the assignment process. We show that…