每日简报

如何解释净生存率：实际估计目标与通常理解的差异AI 解读

Net survival is conventionally defined as ``survival if cancer were the only possible cause of death'', an estimand corresponding to cancer-specific mortality alone. The Pohar Perme estimator targets this by removing general population other-cause mortality from observed total mortality, but achieves it only when cancer patients experience the same other-cause mortality as the general population. However, cancer patients often experience elevated other-cause mortality due to…

模型不确定性下因果效应的稳健加权三角验证AI 解读

A fundamental challenge in causal inference with observational data is correct specification of a causal model. When there is model uncertainty, analysts may seek to use estimates from multiple candidate models that rely on distinct, and possibly partially overlapping, sets of identifying assumptions to infer the causal effect, a process known as triangulation. Principled methods for triangulation, however, remain underdeveloped. Here, we develop a framework for causal…

对提前反应与平行趋势违背的联合敏感性分析AI 解读

Two key identifying assumptions used to justify difference-in-differences are parallel trends and no anticipation, yet both may fail in practice. I propose a class of assumptions that constitute deviations from no anticipation and derive closed-form, sharp bounds for several common treatment effect parameters while simultaneously relaxing parallel trends. Deviations from both assumptions are jointly disciplined using observed pre-trends. When some anticipation is imposed,…

工具变量回归中的弱工具稳健子向量推断：LM 检验与 AR 置信集性质AI 解读

We propose a weak-instrument-robust subvector Lagrange multiplier test for instrumental variables regression. We show that it is asymptotically size-correct under a technical condition or as the number of instruments grows to infinity. This is the first weak-instrument-robust subvector test for instrumental variables regression to recover the degrees of freedom of the commonly used non-weak-instrument-robust Wald test. Additionally, we provide a closed-form solution for…

测量误差下凹分布函数的推断AI 解读

We propose an estimator of a concave cumulative distribution function under the measurement error model, where the non-negative variables of interest are perturbed by additive independent random noise. The estimator is defined as the least concave majorant on the positive half-line of the deconvolution estimator of the distribution function. We show its uniform consistency and its square root convergence in law in $\ell_\infty(\mathbb R)$. To assess the validity of the…

随机占优的修正 Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney 检验AI 解读

Given independent samples from two univariate distributions, the one-sided Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney statistic may be used to conduct a rank-based test of first-order stochastic dominance. We broaden the scope of applicability of such tests by showing that the bootstrap may be used to conduct valid inference in a matched pairs sampling framework permitting dependence between the two samples. Further, we show that a modified bootstrap incorporating an implicit estimate of a…

DoFlow：用于时间序列干预与反事实预测的流生成模型AI 解读

Time-series forecasting increasingly demands not only accurate observational predictions but also causal forecasting under interventional and counterfactual queries in multivariate systems. We present DoFlow, a flow-based generative model defined over a causal Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) that delivers coherent observational and interventional predictions, as well as counterfactuals through the natural encoding-decoding mechanism of continuous normalizing flows (CNFs). We…