Predictive Synthesis under Sporadic Participation: Evidence from Inflation Density Surveys
间歇参与下的预测综合:来自通胀密度调查的证据
Central banks rely on density forecasts from professional surveys to assess inflation risks and communicate uncertainty. A central challenge in using these surveys is irregular participation: forecasters enter and exit, skip rounds, and reappear after long gaps. In the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters, turnover and missingness vary substantially over time, causing the set of submitted predictions to change from quarter to quarter. Standard…