每日简报

多结局整群随机试验中广义因果效应的最优估计AI 解读

Cluster-randomized trials (CRTs) are widely used to evaluate group-level interventions and increasingly collect multiple outcomes capturing complementary dimensions of benefit and risk. Investigators often seek a single global summary of treatment effect, yet existing methods largely focus on single-outcome estimands or rely on model-based procedures with unclear causal interpretation or limited robustness. We develop a unified potential outcomes framework for generalized…

倾向得分传播：未知倾向得分下基于设计的推断框架AI 解读

Design-based inference, also known as randomization-based or finite-population inference, provides a principled framework for trustworthy statistical inference. It attributes randomness solely to the design mechanism, such as treatment assignment, survey sampling, or missingness, without imposing super-population distributional or modeling assumptions on the outcome data. From the seminal work of Fisher and Neyman to its recent resurgence, design-based inference has played a…

Governments and development partners often seek Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) "accelerators" whose progress can propagate gains across human well-being, institutions, resources, and environmental priorities. Such claims require evidence on direction, timing, robustness, and trade-offs, not only network connectivity. We map directed SDG interdependence using a balanced panel of 114 countries observed annually from 2000 to 2024. Because the goal series are persistent,…