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利用自助法权重检验复杂调查数据假设：统一方法AI 解读

Standard statistical methods without taking proper account of the complexity of a survey design can lead to erroneous inferences when applied to survey data due to unequal selection probabilities, clustering, and other design features. In particular, the Type I error rates of hypotheses tests using standard methods can be much larger than the nominal significance level. Methods incorporating design features in testing hypotheses have been proposed, including Wald tests and…

时变处理的边际结构均值模型：工具变量估计AI 解读

Robins introduced Marginal Structural Models (MSMs), a general class of counterfactual models for the joint effects of time-varying treatment regimes in complex longitudinal studies subject to time-varying confounding. In his work, identification of MSM parameters is established under a Sequential Randomization Assumption (SRA), which rules out unmeasured confounding of treatment assignment over time. We consider sufficient conditions for identification of the parameters of…

广义可加模型的在线平滑回拟合AI 解读

We propose an online smoothing backfitting method for generalized additive models coupled with local linear estimation. The idea can be extended to general nonlinear optimization problems. The strategy is to use an appropriate-order expansion to approximate the nonlinear equations and store the coefficients as sufficient statistics which can be updated in an online manner by the dynamic candidate bandwidth method. We investigate the statistical and algorithmic convergences…

利用枢纽模型及其变体推断隐含网络AI 解读

Statistical network analysis primarily focuses on inferring the parameters of an observed network. In many applications, especially in the social sciences, the observed data is the groups formed by individual subjects. In these applications, the network is itself a parameter of a statistical model. Zhao and Weko propose a model-based approach, called the hub model, to infer implicit networks from grouping behavior. The hub model assumes that each member of the group is…

利用潜在因子模型子群结构的众包标注AI 解读

Crowdsourcing has emerged as an alternative solution for collecting large scale labels. However, the majority of recruited workers are not domain experts, so their contributed labels could be noisy. In this paper, we propose a two-stage model to predict the true labels for multicategory classification tasks in crowdsourcing. In the first stage, we fit the observed labels with a latent factor model and incorporate subgroup structures for both tasks and workers through a…

日内周期性波动率曲线AI 解读

The volatility of financial asset returns displays pronounced variation over the trading day. Our goal is nonparametric inference for the average intraday volatility pattern, viewed as a function of time-of-day. The functional inference is based on a long span of high-frequency return data. Our setup allows for general forms of volatility dynamics, including time-variation in the intraday pattern. The estimation is based on forming local volatility estimates from the…

贝叶斯稳健性：非渐近视角AI 解读

We study the problem of robustly estimating the posterior distribution for the setting where observed data can be contaminated with potentially adversarial outliers. We propose Rob-ULA, a robust variant of the Unadjusted Langevin Algorithm (ULA), and provide a finite-sample analysis of its sampling distribution. In particular, we show that after T=O˜(d/εacc) iterations, we can sample from pT such that dist(pT,p*)≤εacc+O˜(ϵ), where ϵ is the fraction of corruptions and dist…

存在混杂时的非线性因果发现AI 解读

This article introduces a causal discovery method to learn nonlinear relationships in a directed acyclic graph with correlated Gaussian errors due to confounding. First, we derive model identifiability under the sublinear growth assumption. Then, we propose a novel method, named the Deconfounded Functional Structure Estimation (DeFuSE), consisting of a deconfounding adjustment to remove the confounding effects and a sequential procedure to estimate the causal order of…

利用 Copula 求解估计方程AI 解读

Thanks to their ability to capture complex dependence structures, copulas are frequently used to glue random variables into a joint model with arbitrary marginal distributions. More recently, they have been applied to solve statistical learning problems such as regression or classification. Framing such approaches as solutions of estimating equations, we generalize them in a unified framework. We can then obtain simultaneous, coherent inferences across multiple…

空间曲率过程的贝叶斯建模AI 解读

Spatial process models are widely used for modeling point-referenced variables arising from diverse scientific domains. Analyzing the resulting random surface provides deeper insights into the nature of latent dependence within the studied response. We develop Bayesian modeling and inference for rapid changes on the response surface to assess directional curvature along a given trajectory. Such trajectories or curves of rapid change, often referred to as wombling boundaries,…

结合共形预测与加权秩和的两样本条件分布检验AI 解读

We consider the problem of testing the equality of conditional distributions of a response variable given a vector of covariates between two populations. Such a hypothesis testing problem can be motivated from various machine learning and statistical inference scenarios, including transfer learning and causal predictive inference. We develop a nonparametric test procedure inspired from the conformal prediction framework. The construction of our test statistic combines recent…

高维函数型数据的最优线性判别分析AI 解读

Most of existing methods of functional data classification deal with one or a few processes. In this work we tackle classification of high-dimensional functional data, in which each observation is potentially associated with a large number of functional processes, p, which is comparable to or even much larger than the sample size n. The challenge arises from the complex inter-correlation structures among multiple functional processes, instead of a diagonal correlation for a…

依赖删失下基于 Copula 的 Cox 比例风险模型AI 解读

Most existing copula models for dependent censoring in the literature assume that the parameter defining the copula is known. However, prior knowledge on this dependence parameter is often unavailable. In this article we propose a novel model under which the copula parameter does not need to be known. The model is based on a parametric copula model for the relation between the survival time (T) and the censoring time (C), whereas the marginal distributions of T and C follow…

骨架聚类：维度无关的密度辅助聚类AI 解读

We introduce a density-aided clustering method called Skeleton Clustering that can detect clusters in multivariate and even high-dimensional data with irregular shapes. To bypass the curse of dimensionality, we propose surrogate density measures that are less dependent on the dimension but have intuitive geometric interpretations. The clustering framework constructs a concise representation of the given data as an intermediate step and can be thought of as a combination of…

半监督框架下的一般 M 估计理论AI 解读

We study a class of general M-estimators in the semi-supervised setting, wherein the data are typically a combination of a relatively small labeled dataset and large amounts of unlabeled data. A new estimator, which efficiently uses the useful information contained in the unlabeled data, is proposed via a projection technique. We prove consistency and asymptotic normality, and provide an inference procedure based on K-fold cross-validation. The optimal weights are derived to…

不规则位置与跨位置非平稳下的半参数动态函数系数时空自回归模型AI 解读

Nonlinear dynamic modeling of spatio-temporal data is often a challenge, especially due to irregularly observed locations and location-wide nonstationarity.In this article we propose a semiparametric family of Dynamic Functional-coefficient Autoregressive Spatio-Temporal (DyFAST) models to address the difficulties.We specify the autoregressive smoothing coefficients depending dynamically on both a concerned regime and location so that the models can characterize not only the…

含终止事件纵向数据的二元时变系数模型核估计AI 解读

We propose a nonparametric bivariate time-varying coefficient model for longitudinal measurements with the occurrence of a terminal event that is subject to right censoring. The time-varying coefficients capture the longitudinal trajectories of covariate effects along with both the followup time and the residual lifetime. The proposed model extends the parametric conditional approach given terminal event time in recent literature, and thus avoids potential model…

高阶最小二乘：评估线性因果模型的局部拟合优度AI 解读

We introduce a simple diagnostic test for assessing the overall or partial goodness of fit of a linear causal model with errors being independent of the covariates. In particular, we consider situations where hidden confounding is potentially present. We develop a method and discuss its capability to distinguish between covariates that are confounded with the response by latent variables and those that are not. Thus, we provide a test and methodology for partial goodness of…

用 c 值有置信保证地比较估计结果AI 解读

Modern statistics provides an ever-expanding toolkit for estimating unknown parameters. Consequently, applied statisticians frequently face a difficult decision: retain a parameter estimate from a familiar method or replace it with an estimate from a newer or more complex one. While it is traditional to compare estimates using risk, such comparisons are rarely conclusive in realistic settings. In response, we propose the “c-value” as a measure of confidence that a new…

用于快速准确经验似然推断的变分贝叶斯AI 解读

We develop a fast and accurate approach to approximate posterior distributions in the Bayesian empirical likelihood framework. Bayesian empirical likelihood allows for the use of Bayesian shrinkage without specification of a full likelihood but is notorious for leading to several computational difficulties. By coupling the stochastic variational Bayes procedure with an adjusted empirical likelihood framework, the proposed method overcomes the intractability of both the exact…

潜在因子回归与稀疏回归是否充分？AI 解读

We propose the Factor Augmented sparse linear Regression Model (FARM) that not only encompasses both the latent factor regression and sparse linear regression as special cases but also bridges dimension reduction and sparse regression together. We provide theoretical guarantees for the estimation of our model under the existence of sub-Gaussian and heavy-tailed noises (with bounded (1+x)-th moment, for all x>0), respectively. In addition, the existing works on supervised…

具有理论保证的函数型张量奇异值分解AI 解读

This paper introduces the functional tensor singular value decomposition (FTSVD), a novel dimension reduction framework for tensors with one functional mode and several tabular modes. The problem is motivated by high-order longitudinal data analysis. Our model assumes the observed data to be a random realization of an approximate CP low-rank functional tensor measured on a discrete time grid. Incorporating tensor algebra and the theory of Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space…

一般希尔伯特空间响应的部分线性加性回归AI 解读

In this article we develop semiparametric regression techniques for fitting partially linear additive models. The methods are for a general Hilbert-space-valued response. They use a powerful technique of additive regression in profiling out the additive nonparametric components of the models, which necessarily involves additive regression of the nonadditive effects of covariates. We show that the estimators of the parametric components are n-consistent and asymptotically…

高维单指标模型假设检验的随机投影方法AI 解读

In this article, we consider the problem of hypothesis testing in high-dimensional single-index models. First, we study the feasibility of applying the classical F-test to a single-index model when the dimension of covariate vector and sample size are of the same order, and derive its asymptotic null distribution and asymptotic local power function. For the ultrahigh-dimensional single-index model, we construct F-statistics based on lower-dimensional random projections of…