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面板数据模型中追寻同质分组的非参数分位数回归AI 解读

Many panel data have the latent subgroup effect on individuals, and it is important to correctly identify these groups since the efficiency of resulting estimators can be improved significantly by pooling the information of individuals within each group. However, the currently assumed parametric and semiparametric relationship between the response and predictors may be misspecified, which leads to a wrong grouping result, and the nonparametric approach hence can be…

异质数据逐分辨率回归的非参数预测分布AI 解读

Modeling and inference for heterogeneous data have gained great interest recently due to rapid developments in personalized marketing. Most existing regression approaches are based on the conditional mean and may require additional cluster information to accommodate data heterogeneity. In this paper, we propose a novel nonparametric resolution-wise regression procedure to provide an estimated distribution of the response instead of one single value. We achieve this by…

递增凹与递增凸随机序约束下分布函数的一致估计AI 解读

A random variable Y1 is said to be smaller than Y2 in the increasing concave stochastic order if E[ϕ(Y1)]≤E[ϕ(Y2)] for all increasing concave functions ϕ for which the expected values exist, and smaller than Y2 in the increasing convex order if E[ψ(Y1)]≤E[ψ(Y2)] for all increasing convex ψ. This article develops nonparametric estimators for the conditional cumulative distribution functions Fx(y)=ℙ(Y≤y|X=x) of a response variable Y given a covariate X, solely under the…

成本与风险厌恶不对称下的采购竞标AI 解读

We propose an empirical method to analyze data from first-price procurements where bidders are asymmetric in their risk-aversion (CRRA) coefficients and distributions of private costs. Our Bayesian approach evaluates the likelihood by solving type-symmetric equilibria using the boundary-value method and integrates out unobserved heterogeneity through data augmentation. We study a new dataset from Russian government procurements focusing on the category of printing papers. We…

存在大量最高效率企业时的随机前沿 LASSO 估计AI 解读

We apply the adaptive LASSO to select a set of maximally efficient firms in the panel fixed-effect stochastic frontier model. The adaptively weighted L1 penalty with sign restrictions allows simultaneous selection of a group of maximally efficient firms and estimation of firm-level inefficiency parameters with a faster rate of convergence than least squares dummy variable estimators. Our estimator possesses the oracle property. We propose a tuning parameter selection…

时变系数合成控制：结合贝叶斯收缩的状态空间方法AI 解读

Synthetic control methods are a popular tool for measuring the effects of policy interventions on a single treated unit. In practice, researchers create a counterfactual using a linear combination of untreated units that closely mimic the treated unit. Oftentimes, creating a synthetic control is not possible due to untreated units’ dynamic characteristics such as integrated processes or a time varying relationship. These are cases in which viewing the counterfactual…

非参数条件局部独立性检验AI 解读

Conditional local independence is an asymmetric independence relation among continuous time stochastic processes. It describes whether the evolution of one process is directly influenced by another process given the histories of additional processes, and it is important for the description and learning of causal relations among processes. We develop a model-free framework for testing the hypothesis that a counting process is conditionally locally independent of another…

未观测协变量对协变量自适应随机实验的影响AI 解读

Covariate-adaptive randomization (CAR) is commonly implemented in clinical trials to balance observed covariates. Recent studies have demonstrated the advantages of CAR procedures in balancing covariates and improving the subsequent statistical analysis. Covariate balance is crucial, but it is not a panacea for the valid statistical inferences. If the response to a treatment interacts with some unobserved covariates, the conclusion drawn from a CAR experiment may be…

依赖重尾数据的极端回归推断AI 解读

Nonparametric inference on tail conditional quantiles and their least squares analogs, expectiles, remains limited to i.i.d. data. We develop a fully operational inferential theory for extreme conditional quantiles and expectiles in the challenging framework of α-mixing, conditional heavy-tailed data whose tail index may vary with covariate values. This requires a dedicated treatment to deal with data sparsity in the far tail of the response, in addition to handling…

处理决策存在策略互动的处理效应模型AI 解读

This study considers treatment effect models in which others’ treatment decisions can affect both one’s own treatment and outcome. Focusing on the case of two-player interactions, we formulate treatment decision behavior as a complete information game with multiple equilibria. Using a latent index framework and assuming a stochastic equilibrium selection, we prove that the marginal treatment effect from one’s own treatment and that from the partner are identifiable on the…

简单合约的结构分析AI 解读

This paper provides an econometric framework for analyzing two-period simple contracts where an agent chooses between a fixed-price option and a cost-reimbursement option provided by a principal in each contracting period. First, we propose a consistent procedure for testing the null hypothesis of a corresponding cost function being linear, which is widely assumed for tractability in the literature. Motivated by the rejection of such a null based on our empirical data, next…

多种处理下的双向固定效应与双重差分估计AI 解读

We study two-way-fixed-effects regressions (TWFE) with several treatment variables. Under a parallel trends assumption, we show that the coefficient on each treatment identifies a weighted sum of that treatment’s effect, with possibly negative weights, plus a weighted sum of the effects of the other treatments. Thus, those estimators are not robust to heterogeneous effects and may be contaminated by other treatments’ effects. We further show that omitting a treatment from…

家庭破产中的道德风险与流动性AI 解读

ABSTRACT This paper studies the role of moral hazard and liquidity in driving household bankruptcy. First, I estimate that increases in potential debt forgiveness have a positive, but small, effect on filing using a regression kink design. Second, exploiting quasi‐experimental variation in mortgage payment reductions, I estimate that filing is five times more responsive to cash‐on‐hand than relief generosity. Using a sufficient statistic, I show the estimates imply large…

Olley–Pakes 生产函数估计量的识别与影响函数AI 解读

In this paper, we reconsider the assumptions that ensure the identification of the production function in Olley and Pakes (1996, Econometrica 64, 1263–1297). We show that an index restriction plays a crucial role in the identification, especially if the capital stock is measured by the perpetual inventory method. The index restriction is not sufficient for identification under sample selectivity. The index restriction makes it possible to derive the influence function and…

归一化潜在测度因子模型AI 解读

Abstract We propose a methodology for modelling and comparing probability distributions within a Bayesian nonparametric framework. Building on dependent normalised random measures, we consider a prior distribution for a collection of discrete random measures where each measure is a linear combination of a set of latent measures, interpretable as characteristic traits shared by different distributions, with positive random weights. The model is nonidentified and a method for…

多协变量预期短缺回归的稳健估计与推断AI 解读

Abstract Expected shortfall (ES), also known as superquantile or conditional value-at-risk, is an important measure in risk analysis and stochastic optimisation and has applications beyond these fields. In finance, it refers to the conditional expected return of an asset given that the return is below some quantile of its distribution. In this paper, we consider a joint regression framework recently proposed to model the quantile and ES of a response variable simultaneously,…

Van Werde对《Varimax经典因子分析可进行统计推断》的讨论AI 解读

I would like to point out that the author’s results have potential applications in the theory of random graphs beyond those for block models which are explicitly remarked upon in the paper. In particular, the results could be used to resolve the nonidentifiability associated with random dot product graphs (Athreya et al., 2017, Remark 1). The authors are most likely already aware of this connection: they have previously worked on generalized random dot product graphs in Rohe…

倪晓月对《Varimax 旋转的传统因子分析可进行统计推断》的讨论AI 解读

I want to congratulate Rohe and Zeng on solving a long-time puzzle (and fight between statisticians and practitioners) of ‘why/whether the varimax rotation works’. Their inspiring results have some implications in the literature of latent space models for social networks (Hoff, 2021; Hoff et al., 2002). One of the appealing features of the latent space model is that one can extract the latent factors and analyse the unobserved features through the latent positions. However,…

Joshua Cape 对《采用 Varimax 的经典因子分析实现统计推断》的讨论AI 解读

I congratulate Professor Rohe and Dr Zeng on their illuminating paper. Their broad contributions will no doubt redouble contemporary research activity in multivariate analysis for years to come. Even the paper’s appendices are full of valuable gems, not to be overlooked by readers. Rohe and Zeng contextualize their findings vis-à-vis classical developments in psychometrics and statistics. This choice is apt, for the authors champion a newfound understanding of varimax factor…

面板数据非线性双重差分的简便方法AI 解读

Summary I derive simple, flexible strategies for difference-in-differences settings where the nature of the response variable may warrant a nonlinear model. I allow for general staggered interventions, with and without covariates. Under an index version of parallel trends, I show that average treatment effects on the treated (ATTs) are identified for each cohort and calendar time period in which a cohort was subjected to the intervention. The pooled quasi-maximum likelihood…

LATE为时不晚：允许或不允许反向服从者的局部平均处理效应新解AI 解读

Summary In heterogeneous treatment effect models with endogeneity, identification of the local average treatment effect (LATE) typically relies on the availability of an exogenous instrument monotonically related to treatment participation. First, we demonstrate that a strictly weaker local monotonicity condition—invoked for specific potential outcome values rather than globally—identifies the LATEs on compliers and defiers. Second, we show that our identification results…

具有乘性不可观测效应的三维引力模型AI 解读

Summary This paper investigates three-way gravity models with multiplicative unobserved effects, which are popular in bilateral trade analysis and many other contexts. Such models are usually estimated by the fixed effects Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood method. As an alternative, we extend the estimation strategy proposed by Jochmans (2017) to our new settings by constructing moment conditions that are independent of the unobserved effects. Our method entails estimation…

工具变量分位数回归的一阶段表示AI 解读

Summary This paper develops a first-stage linear regression representation for an instrumental variables (IV) quantile regression (QR) model. The quantile first stage is analogous to the least-squares case, i.e., a linear projection of the endogenous variables on the instruments and other exogenous covariates, with the difference that the QR case is a weighted projection. The weights are given by the conditional density function of the innovation term in the QR structural…

异质处理效应下的双向固定效应与双重差分：综述AI 解读

Summary Linear regressions with period and group fixed effects are widely used to estimate policie’s effects: 26 of the 100 most cited papers published by the American Economic Review from 2015 to 2019 estimate such regressions. It has recently been shown that those regressions may produce misleading estimates if the policy’s effect is heterogeneous between groups or over time, as is often the case. This survey reviews a fast-growing literature that documents this issue and…