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含干扰泛函的复杂调查数据增广两步估计方程AI 解读

Summary Statistical inference in the presence of nuisance functionals with complex survey data is an important topic in social and economic studies. The Gini index, Lorenz curves, and quantile shares are among the commonly encountered examples. The nuisance functionals are usually handled by a plug-in nonparametric estimator and the main inferential procedure can be carried out through a two-step generalized empirical likelihood method. Unfortunately, the resulting inference…

对《暴露映射误设下的因果推断：区分定义与假设》的讨论：政策评价局限AI 解读

We thank Sävje (2024) for a thought-provoking article and appreciate the opportunity to share our perspective as social scientists. In his article, Sävje recommended misspecified exposure effects as a way to avoid strong assumptions about interference when analysing the results of an experiment. In this discussion, we highlight a key limitation of Sävje’s recommendation. Exposure effects are not generally useful for evaluating social policies without the strong assumptions…

对《暴露映射误设下的因果推断：区分定义与假设》的讨论：推断所需的干扰限制AI 解读

We congratulate the author on an insightful paper that provides a discerning critique of the use of exposure mappings in studies with interference. The main observation is that exposure mappings serve two different functions; they define the estimand and impose structure on potential outcomes by restricting interference. The first function commonly leads researchers to select simple exposure mappings that summarize treatments assigned to units ‘near’ the ego. However, due to…

离线强化学习中自然随机策略的有效评估AI 解读

Summary We study the efficient off-policy evaluation of natural stochastic policies, which are defined in terms of deviations from the unknown behaviour policy. This is a departure from the literature on off-policy evaluation that largely considers the evaluation of explicitly specified policies. Crucially, off-line reinforcement learning with natural stochastic policies can help alleviate issues of weak overlap, lead to policies that build upon current practice and improve…

连续标记特异的分位数回归模型AI 解读

Summary Quantile regression has become a widely used tool for analysing competing risk data. However, quantile regression for competing risk data with a continuous mark is still scarce. The mark variable is an extension of cause of failure in a classical competing risk model where cause of failure is replaced by a continuous mark only observed at uncensored failure times. An example of the continuous mark variable is the genetic distance that measures dissimilarity between…

广义 Oaxaca–Blinder 估计量的无损校准AI 解读

Summary In randomized experiments, adjusting for observed features when estimating treatment effects has been proposed as a way to improve asymptotic efficiency. However, among parametric methods, only linear regression has been proven to form an estimate of the average treatment effect that is asymptotically no less efficient than the treated-minus-control difference in means regardless of the true data generating process. Randomized treatment assignment provides this…

针对原因特异绝对风险与生存曲线的一步目标最大似然估计AI 解读

Summary This paper considers the one-step targeted maximum likelihood estimation methodology for multi-dimensional causal parameters in general survival and competing risk settings where event times take place on the positive real line and are subject to right censoring. We focus on effects of baseline treatment decisions possibly confounded by pretreatment covariates, but remark that our work generalizes to settings with time-varying treatment regimes and time-dependent…

利用干预实验数据贝叶斯学习网络结构AI 解读

Summary Directed acyclic graphs provide an effective framework for learning causal relationships among variables given multivariate observations. Under pure observational data, directed acyclic graphs encoding the same conditional independencies cannot be distinguished and are collected into Markov equivalence classes. In many contexts, however, observational measurements are supplemented by interventional data that improve directed acyclic graph identifiability and enhance…

分层随机实验与匹配观察研究中的个体处理效应分位数AI 解读

Summary Evaluating the treatment effect has become an important topic for many applications. However, most existing literature focuses mainly on average treatment effects. When the individual effects are heavy tailed or have outlier values, not only may the average effect not be appropriate for summarizing treatment effects, but also the conventional inference for it can be sensitive and possibly invalid due to poor large-sample approximations. In this paper we focus on…

再随机化设计的检验功效与样本量计算AI 解读

Summary Power analyses are an important aspect of experimental design, because they help determine how experiments are implemented in practice. It is common to specify a desired level of power and compute the sample size necessary to obtain that power. Such calculations are well known for completely randomized experiments, but there can be many benefits to using other experimental designs. For example, it has recently been established that rerandomization, where subjects are…

无标签网络总体：图空间几何与广义测地主成分AI 解读

Abstract Statistical analysis for populations of networks is widely applicable, but challenging, as networks have strongly non-Euclidean behaviour. Graph space is an exhaustive framework for studying populations of unlabelled networks that are weighted or unweighted, uni- or multilayered, directed or undirected. Viewing graph space as the quotient of a Euclidean space with respect to a finite group action, we show that it is not a manifold, and that its curvature is…

暴露映射误设下的因果推断：分离定义与假设AI 解读

Summary Exposure mappings facilitate investigations of complex causal effects when units interact in experiments. Current methods require experimenters to use the same exposure mappings to define the effect of interest and to impose assumptions on the interference structure. However, the two roles rarely coincide in practice, and experimenters are forced to make the often questionable assumption that their exposures are correctly specified. This paper argues that the two…

用于评估自回归过程处理效应的动态合成控制法AI 解读

Abstract Motivated by evaluating the effects of air pollution alerts on air quality, we propose the dynamic synthetic control method for micro-level data with time-varying confounders and spatial dependence under an auto-regressive model setting. We employ the empirical likelihood to define the synthetic control weights, which ensures a unique solution and permits theoretical analysis. The dynamic matching increases the feasibility of matching and enables us to assess the…

度修正及相关随机块模型的Monte Carlo拟合优度检验AI 解读

Abstract We construct Bayesian and frequentist finite-sample goodness-of-fit tests for three different variants of the stochastic blockmodel for network data. Since all of the stochastic blockmodel variants are log-linear in form when block assignments are known, the tests for the latent block model versions combine a block membership estimator with the algebraic statistics machinery for testing goodness-of-fit in log-linear models. We describe Markov bases and marginal…

网络上的平稳不可分离时空协方差函数AI 解读

Abstract The advent of data science has provided an increasing number of challenges with high data complexity. This paper addresses the challenge of space-time data where the spatial domain is not a planar surface, a sphere, or a linear network, but a generalised network (termed a graph with Euclidean edges). Additionally, data are repeatedly measured over different temporal instants. We provide new classes of stationary nonseparable space-time covariance functions where…

超越尖锐零假设的随机化推断：有界零假设与个体处理效应分位数AI 解读

Abstract Randomisation inference (RI) is typically interpreted as testing Fisher’s ‘sharp’ null hypothesis that all unit-level effects are exactly zero. This hypothesis is often criticised as restrictive and implausible, making its rejection scientifically uninteresting. We show, however, that many randomisation tests are also valid for a ‘bounded’ null hypothesis under which the unit-level effects are all non-positive (or all non-negative) but are otherwise heterogeneous.…

基于回归秩得分的异质分位数处理效应去偏推断AI 解读

Abstract Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity is vital to many scientific fields because the same treatment may affect different individuals differently. Quantile regression provides a natural framework for modelling such heterogeneity. We propose a new method for inference on heterogeneous quantile treatment effects (HQTE) in the presence of high-dimensional covariates. Our estimator combines an ℓ1-penalised regression adjustment with a quantile-specific bias…

随机实验中处理效应的半参数估计AI 解读

Abstract We develop new semi-parametric methods for estimating treatment effects. We focus on settings where the outcome distributions may be thick tailed, where treatment effects may be small, where sample sizes are large, and where assignment is completely random. This setting is of particular interest in recent online experimentation. We propose using parametric models for the treatment effects, leading to semi-parametric models for the outcome distributions. We derive…

DeCAMFounder：存在隐藏变量时的非线性因果发现AI 解读

Abstract Many real-world decision-making tasks require learning causal relationships between a set of variables. Traditional causal discovery methods, however, require that all variables are observed, which is often not feasible in practical scenarios. Without additional assumptions about the unobserved variables, it is not possible to recover any causal relationships from observational data. Fortunately, in many applied settings, additional structure among the confounders…

含潜在混杂的时间序列因果祖先图刻画AI 解读

In this paper, we introduce a novel class of graphical models for representing time-lag specific causal relationships and independencies of multivariate time series with unobserved confounders. We completely characterize these graphs and show that they constitute proper subsets of the currently employed model classes. As we show, from the novel graphs one can thus draw stronger causal inferences—without additional assumptions. We further introduce a graphical representation…

StarTrek：控制错误发现率的组合变量选择AI 解读

Variable selection on the large-scale networks has been extensively studied in the literature. While most of the existing methods are limited to the local functionals especially the graph edges, this paper focuses on selecting the discrete hub structures of the networks. Specifically, we propose an inferential method, called StarTrek filter, to select the hub nodes with degrees larger than a certain thresholding level in the high-dimensional graphical models and control the…

重印：高维分位数回归的假设检验AI 解读

Quantile regression has been an important analytical tool in econometrics since it was proposed in 1970s. Many advantages make it still popular in the era of big data. This paper focuses on the testing problems of high-dimensional quantile regression, supplementing to robust methods in the literature of high-dimensional hypothesis testing. We first construct a new test statistic based on the quantile regression score function. The new test statistic avoids the inverse…

重印：高维线性中介模型推断及新冠疫情股票反应应用AI 解读

Mediation analysis draws increasing attention in many research areas such as economics, finance and social sciences. In this paper, we propose new statistical inference procedures for high dimensional mediation models, in which both the outcome model and the mediator model are linear with high dimensional mediators. Traditional procedures for mediation analysis cannot be used to make statistical inference for high dimensional linear mediation models due to…

双模网络的二部网络影响分析AI 解读

A two-mode network contains two types of nodes, and edges exist only between any two nodes that are associated with different entities. Owing to the network connections (i.e., edges) between the two types of network nodes, nodal responses are unlikely to be independently and identically distributed, resulting in possible nodal heterogeneity across the two types of nodes. This study proposes a novel bipartite network influence model (BNIM) to evaluate nodal heterogeneity from…