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含不可观测异质性的动态 Tobit 面板模型：半参数贝叶斯推断AI 解读

Abstract This paper develops semiparametric Bayesian methods for inference of dynamic Tobit panel data models. Our approach requires that the conditional mean dependence of the unobserved heterogeneity on the initial conditions and the strictly exogenous variables be specified. Important quantities of economic interest such as the average partial effect and average transition probabilities can be readily obtained as a by‐product of the Markov chain Monte Carlo run. We apply…

在迷宫中搜寻证据路径AI 解读

Consider a graph with a set of vertices and oriented edges connecting pairs of vertices. Each vertex is associated with a random variable and these are assumed to be independent. In this setting, suppose we wish to solve the following hypothesis testing problem: under the null, the random variables have common distribution N(0, 1) while under the alternative, there is an unknown path along which random variables have distribution N(μ, 1), μ> 0, and distribution N(0, 1) away…

绝对集中曲线与边际条件随机占优的假设检验AI 解读

We consider statistical tests concerning various relationships between two absolute concentration curves (ACCs). In particular, we consider tests for determining if the two ACCs coincide, if one is above another in a specified order, or if they do not intersect without specifying which one is above/below the other one. These problems are of interest in the context of marginal conditional stochastic dominance (MCSD). Constructing statistical tests for the MCSD relies on ideas…

协变量测量误差下的分位数回归AI 解读

This paper establishes that the availability of instrumental variables enables the identification and the consistent estimation of nonparametric quantile regression models in the presence of measurement error in the regressors. The proposed estimator takes the form of a nonlinear functional of derivatives of conditional expectations and is shown to provide estimated quantile functions that are uniformly consistent over a compact set.

将随机效应模型置于生存分析框架AI 解读

Summary Logistic random-effects models are often employed in the analysis of correlated binary data. However, fitting these models is challenging, since the marginal distribution of the response variables is analytically intractable. Often, the random effects are treated as missing data for constructing traditional data augmentation algorithms. We create a novel alternative data augmentation scheme that simplifies the likelihood-based inference for logistic random-effects…

不交叉分位数曲线的非参数估计AI 解读

Summary Since the introduction by Koenker and Bassett, quantile regression has become increasingly important in many applications. However, many non-parametric conditional quantile estimates yield crossing quantile curves (calculated for various p ∈ (0, 1)). We propose a new non-parametric estimate of conditional quantiles that avoids this problem. The method uses an initial estimate of the conditional distribution function in the first step and solves the problem of…

摘要暂缺

效率分析的非参数无条件分位数估计：美联储支票处理业务应用AI 解读

This paper examines the technical efficiency of U.S. Federal Reserve check processing offices over 1980–2003. We extend results from Park et al. (2000) and Daouia and Simar (2007) to develop an unconditional, hyperbolic, α-quantile estimator of efficiency. Our new estimator is fully non-parametric and robust with respect to outliers; when used to estimate distance to quantiles lying close to the full frontier, it is strongly consistent and converges at rate root-n, thus…

摘要暂缺

欠发达国家的正式与非正式风险分担：理论与经验证据AI 解读

We develop and estimate a model of dynamic interactions in which commitment is limited and contracts are incomplete to explain the patterns of income and consumption growth in village economies of less developed countries. Households can insure each other through both formal contracts and informal agreements, that is, self-enforcing agreements specifying voluntary transfers. This theoretical setting nests the case of complete markets and the case where only informal…

This paper considers the estimation problem in dynamic games with finite actions. we derive the equation system that characterizes the markovian equilibria. the equilibrium equation system enables us to characterize conditions for identification. we consider a class of asymptotic least squares estimators defined by the equilibrium conditions. this class provides a unified framework for a number of well-known estimators including those by Hotz and Miller (1993) and by…

单调二元模型的部分识别：离散回归量与区间数据AI 解读

We investigate identification in semi-parametric binary regression models, y = 1(xβ+υ+ε > 0) when υ is either discrete or measured within intervals. The error term ε is assumed to be uncorrelated with a set of instruments z, ε is independent of υ conditionally on x and z, and the support of −(xβ + ε) is finite. We provide a sharp characterization of the set of observationally equivalent parameters β. When there are as many instruments z as variables x, the bounds of the…

评论：博弈中偏好与信念参数的识别AI 解读

The paper by Andres Aradillas-Lopez and Elie Tamer clari…es how identi…cation can be obtained in games and provides techniques to do so.In other words, it o¤ers constructive ways of analyzing either point or set identi…cation of parameters governing the preferences and beliefs of players in di¤erent games.In this short comment, I am trying to highlight the key issues that are brought out by the paper.First, as sometimes alluded to by the authors, one way of reading their…

简单博弈中均衡假设的识别能力AI 解读

We examine the identification power that (Nash) equilibrium assumptions play in conducting inference about parameters in some simple games. We focus on three static games in which we drop the Nash equilibrium assumption and instead use rationalizability as the basis for strategic play. The first example examines a bivariate discrete game with complete information of the kind studied in entry models. The second example considers the incomplete-information version of the…

生产率估计对方法选择的敏感性AI 解读

Researchers interested in estimating productivity can choose from an array of methodologies, each with its strengths and weaknesses. This study compares productivity estimates and evaluates the extent to which the conclusions of three important productivity debates in the economic development literature are sensitive to the choice of estimation method. Five widely used techniques are considered, two nonparametric and three parametric: index numbers, data envelopment…

适用于大量截面单位面板数据的自助法程序AI 解读

This paper considers the issue of bootstrap resampling in panel data sets. The availability of data sets with large temporal and cross-sectional dimensions suggests the possibility of new resampling schemes. We suggest one possibility which has not been widely explored in the literature. It amounts to constructing bootstrap samples by resampling whole cross-sectional units with replacement. In cases where the data do not exhibit cross-sectional dependence but exhibit…

使用分位数回归模型进行生存分析AI 解读

Quantile regression offers great flexibility in assessing covariate effects on event times, thereby attracting considerable interests in its applications in survival analysis. But currently available methods often require stringent assumptions or complex algorithms. In this article we develop a new quantile regression approach for survival data subject to conditionally independent censoring. The proposed martingale-based estimating equations naturally lead to a simple…

分布的修剪比较AI 解读

This article introduces an analysis of similarity of distributions based on the L2-Wasserstein distance between trimmed distributions. Our main innovation is the use of the impartial trimming methodology, already considered in robust statistics, which we adapt to this setup. Instead of simply removing data at the tails to provide some robustness to the similarity analysis, we develop a data-driven trimming method aimed at maximizing similarity between distributions.…

从实验数据学习因果贝叶斯网络结构AI 解读

We propose a method for the computational inference of directed acyclic graphical structures given data from experimental interventions. Order-space Markov chain Monte Carlo, equi-energy sampling, importance weighting, and stream-based computation are combined to create a fast algorithm for learning causal Bayesian network structures.

二元选择回归模型的稳健高效自适应估计AI 解读

The binary-choice regression models, such as probit and logit, are used to describe the effect of explanatory variables on a binary response variable. Typically estimated by the maximum likelihood method, estimates are very sensitive to deviations from a model, such as heteroscedasticity and data contamination. At the same time, the traditional robust (high-breakdown point) methods, such as the maximum trimmed likelihood, are not applicable because, by trimming observations,…

年龄、教育与宗教相似性择偶偏好的双边估计AI 解读

We propose a two-sided method to simultaneously estimate men's and women's preferences for relative age, education, and religious characteristics of potential mates using cross-sectional data on married couples and single individuals, in conjunction with a behavioral model developed in game theory and discrete choice estimation methods developed for simpler, one-sided choice situations. We use fixed effects to control for characteristics that are observed by the opposite sex…

包含治疗选择的混合干预试验中的因果推断AI 解读

Randomized allocation of treatments is a cornerstone of experimental design but has drawbacks when a limited set of individuals are willing to be randomized, or the act of randomization undermines the success of the treatment. Choice-based experimental designs allow a subset of the participants to choose their treatments. We discuss here causal inferences for hybrid experimental designs in which some participants are randomly allocated to treatments and others receive their…

任职优势及其差异的估计：一项前后比较研究AI 解读

Incumbency advantage is one of the most widely studied features in American legislative elections. In this article we construct and implement an estimate that allows incumbency advantage to vary between individual incumbents. This model predicts that open-seat elections will be less variable than those with incumbents running, an observed empirical pattern that is not explained by previous models. We apply our method to the U.S. House of Representatives in the twentieth…

统计辅助的处理方案选择AI 解读

Choosing among a number of treatments the most suitable for a particular client is an issue of everyday concern. In this article two methodological advances for statistically assisted treatment choice are developed: First, it permits one to combine a dataset on previously treated clients with a dataset on new clients when the regressors available in these two datasets do not coincide. It thereby incorporates additional regressors on previously treated clients that are not…