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航空市场的市场结构与多重均衡AI 解读

We provide a practical method to estimate the payoff functions of players in complete information, static, discrete games. With respect to the empirical literature on entry games originated by Bresnahan and Reiss (1990) and Berry (1992), the main novelty of our framework is to allow for general forms of heterogeneity across players without making equilibrium selection assumptions. We allow the effects that the entry of each individual airline has on the profits of its…

统计处理规则的渐近理论AI 解读

This paper develops asymptotic optimality theory for statistical treatment rules in smooth parametric and semiparametric models. Manski (2000, 2002, 2004) and Dehejia (2005) have argued that the problem of choosing treatments to maximize social welfare is distinct from the point estimation and hypothesis testing problems usually considered in the treatment effects literature, and advocate formal analysis of decision procedures that map empirical data into treatment choices.…

含序列相关不可观测状态变量的动态离散选择模型推断AI 解读

This paper develops a method for inference in dynamic discrete choice models with serially correlated unobserved state variables. Estimation of these models involves computing high-dimensional integrals that are present in the solution to the dynamic program and in the likelihood function. First, the paper proposes a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation procedure that can handle the problem of multidimensional integration in the likelihood function. Second, the paper…

无加性假设的三角联立方程模型：识别与估计AI 解读

This paper uses control variables to identify and estimate models with nonseparable, multidimensional disturbances. Triangular simultaneous equations models are considered, with instruments and disturbances that are independent and a reduced form that is strictly monotonic in a scalar disturbance. Here it is shown that the conditional cumulative distribution function of the endogenous variable given the instruments is a control variable. Also, for any control variable,…

工作场所的社会关系与激励：来自人事数据的证据AI 解读

We present evidence on the effect of social connections between workers and managers on productivity in the workplace. To evaluate whether the existence of social connections is beneficial to the firm's overall performance, we explore how the effects of social connections vary with the strength of managerial incentives and worker's ability. To do so, we combine panel data on individual worker's productivity from personnel records with a natural field experiment in which we…

利用分位数方法检验多重均衡模型AI 解读

Abstract. This paper proposes a method for testing complementarities between explanatory and dependent variables in a large class of economic models. The proposed test is based on the monotone comparative statics (MCS) property of equilibria. Our main result is that MCS produces testable implications on the (small and large) quantiles of the dependent variable, despite the presence of multiple equilibria. The key features of our approach are: (1) we work with a nonparametric…

具有交互固定效应的面板数据模型AI 解读

This paper considers large N and large T panel data models with unobservable multiple interactive effects. These models are useful for both micro and macro econometric modelings. In earnings studies, for example, workers ’ motivation, persistence, and diligence combined to influence the earnings in addition to the usual argument of innate ability. In macroeconomics, the interactive effects represent unobservable common shocks and their heterogeneous responses over cross…

排除限制下第一价格拍卖中风险厌恶的非参数识别AI 解读

This paper studies the nonparametric identification of the first-price auction model with risk averse bidders within the private value paradigm. First, we show that the benchmark model is nonindentified from observed bids. We also derive the restrictions imposed by the model on observables and show that these restrictions are weak. Second, we establish the nonparametric identification of the bidders' utility function under exclusion restrictions. Our primary exclusion…

友谊的经济模型：同质性、少数群体与隔离AI 解读

We develop a model of friendship formation that sheds light on segregation patterns observed in social and economic networks. Individuals have types and see type-dependent benefits from friendships. We examine the properties of a steady-state equilibrium of a matching process of friendship formation. We use the model to understand three empirical patterns of friendship formation: (i) larger groups tend to form more same-type ties and fewer other-type ties than small groups,…

动态离散选择模型中的分类误差：对女性劳动供给行为的影响AI 解读

Two key issues in the literature on female labor supply are (i) whether persistence in employment status is due to unobserved heterogeneity or state dependence, and (ii) whether fertility is exogenous to labor supply. Until recently, the consensus was that unobserved heterogeneity is very important and fertility is endogenous. Hyslop (1999) challenged this. Using a dynamic panel probit model of female labor supply including heterogeneity and state dependence, he found that…

有效率群体行为的微观经济学：识别AI 解读

Consider a group consisting of S members facing a common budget constraint p'xi=1: any demand vector belonging to the budget set can be (privately or publicly) consumed by the members. Although the intragroup decision process is not known, it is assumed to generate Pareto-efficient outcomes; neither individual consumptions nor intragroup transfers are observable. The paper analyzes when, to what extent, and under which conditions it is possible to recover the underlying…

无条件分位数回归AI 解读

We propose a new regression method to evaluate the impact of changes in the distribution of the explanatory variables on quantiles of the unconditional (marginal) distribution of an outcome variable. The proposed method consists of running a regression of the (recentered) influence function (RIF) of the unconditional quantile on the explanatory variables. The influence function, a widely used tool in robust estimation, is easily computed for quantiles, as well as for other…

非线性面板数据模型中的稳健先验AI 解读

Many approaches to estimation of panel models are based on an average or integrated likelihood that assigns weights to different values of the individual effects. Fixed effects, random effects, and Bayesian approaches all fall into this category. We provide a characterization of the class of weights (or priors) that produce estimators that are first-order unbiased. We show that such bias-reducing weights will depend on the data in general unless an orthogonal…

随机单调性检验AI 解读

We propose a test of the hypothesis of stochastic monotonicity. This hypothesis is of interest in many applications in economics. Our test is based on the supremum of a rescaled U-statistic. We show that its asymptotic distribution is Gumbel. The proof is difficult because the approximating Gaussian stochastic process contains both a stationary and a nonstationary part, and so we have to extend existing results that only apply to either one or the other case. We also propose…

决策理论在线性面板数据模型中的应用AI 解读

This paper applies some general concepts in decision theory to a linear panel data model. A simple version of the model is an autoregression with a separate intercept for each unit in the cross section, with errors that are independent and identically distributed with a normal distribution. There is a parameter of interest Gamma and a nuisance parameter τ, a N×K matrix, where N is the cross-section sample size. The focus is on dealing with the incidental parameters problem…

动态离散选择有限混合模型的非参数识别AI 解读

In dynamic discrete choice analysis, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity is an important issue, and finite mixture models provide flexible ways to account for it. This paper studies nonparametric identifiability of type probabilities and type-specific component distributions in finite mixture models of dynamic discrete choices. We derive sufficient conditions for nonparametric identification for various finite mixture models of dynamic discrete choices used in applied…

预测变量轨迹聚类间响应密度变化的贝叶斯推断AI 解读

In epidemiology, it is often of interest to assess how individuals with different trajectories over time in an environmental exposure or biomarker differ with respect to a continuous response. For ease in interpretation and presentation of results, epidemiologists typically categorize predictors prior to analysis. To extend this approach to time-varying predictors, one can cluster individuals by their predictor trajectory, with the cluster index included as a predictor in a…

重复测量分析中非参数变系数模型的变量选择AI 解读

Nonparametric varying-coefficient models are commonly used for analysis of data measured repeatedly over time, including longitudinal and functional responses data. While many procedures have been developed for estimating the varying-coefficients, the problem of variable selection for such models has not been addressed. In this article, we present a regularized estimation procedure for variable selection that combines basis function approximations and the smoothly clipped…

二项回归模型中 Jeffreys 先验的性质与计算实现AI 解读

We study several theoretical properties of Jeffreys's prior for binomial regression models. We show that Jeffreys's prior is symmetric and unimodal for a class of binomial regression models. We characterize the tail behavior of Jeffreys's prior by comparing it with the multivariate t and normal distributions under the commonly used logistic, probit, and complementary log-log regression models. We also show that the prior and posterior normalizing constants under Jeffreys's…

纵向数据协方差矩阵的半参数估计AI 解读

Estimation of longitudinal data covariance structure poses significant challenges because the data are usually collected at irregular time points. A viable semiparametric model for covariance matrices was proposed in Fan, Huang and Li (2007) that allows one to estimate the variance function nonparametrically and to estimate the correlation function parametrically via aggregating information from irregular and sparse data points within each subject. However, the asymptotic…

非那雄胺是否影响前列腺癌严重程度：因果敏感性分析AI 解读

In 2003 Thompson and colleagues reported that daily use of finasteride reduced the prevalence of prostate cancer by 25% compared to placebo. These results were based on the double-blind randomized Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) which followed 18,882 men with no prior or current indications of prostate cancer annually for seven years. Enthusiasm for the risk reduction afforded by the chemopreventative agent and adoption of its use in clinical practice, however, was…

早期干预效果的多重推断与性别差异：三项实验的重新评估AI 解读

The view that the returns to educational investments are highest for early childhood interventions is widely held and stems primarily from several influential randomized trials—Abecedarian, Perry, and the Early Training Project—that point to super-normal returns to early interventions. This article presents a de novo analysis of these experiments, focusing on two core issues that have received limited attention in previous analyses: treatment effect heterogeneity by gender…

用距离函数估计需求：原始与对偶参数化AI 解读

Our purpose is to investigate the ability of different parametric forms to 'correctly' estimate consumer demands based on distance functions using Monte Carlo methods. Our approach combines economic theory, econometrics and quadratic approximation. We begin by deriving parameterizations for transformed quadratic functions which are linear in parameters and characterized by either homogeneity or which satisfy the translation property. Homogeneity is typical of Shephard…

具有异方差误差的神经网络需求系统AI 解读

In this paper we consider estimation of demand systems with flexible functional forms, allowing an error term with a general conditional heteroskedasticity function that depends on observed covariates, such as demographic variables. We propose a general model that can be estimated either by quasi-maximum likelihood (in the case of exogenous regressors) or generalized method of moments (GMM) if the covariates are endogenous. The specification proposed in the paper nests…