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个体化治疗规则的性能保证AI 解读

Because many illnesses show heterogeneous response to treatment, there is increasing interest in individualizing treatment to patients [11]. An individualized treatment rule is a decision rule that recommends treatment according to patient characteristics. We consider the use of clinical trial data in the construction of an individualized treatment rule leading to highest mean response. This is a difficult computational problem because the objective function is the…

偏序下的多元分位数AI 解读

This paper focuses on generalizing quantiles from the ordering point of view. We propose the concept of partial quantiles, which are based on a given partial order. We establish that partial quantiles are equivariant under order-preserving transformations of the data, robust to outliers, characterize the probability distribution if the partial order is sufficiently rich, generalize the concept of efficient frontier, and can measure dispersion from the partial order…

线性结构方程模型的全局可识别性AI 解读

Structural equation models are multivariate statistical models that are defined by specifying noisy functional relationships among random variables. We consider the classical case of linear relationships and additive Gaussian noise terms. We give a necessary and sufficient condition for global identifiability of the model in terms of a mixed graph encoding the linear structural equations and the correlation structure of the error terms. Global identifiability is understood…

将断点回归推广至多个分配变量AI 解读

The recent scholarly attention to the regression-discontinuity design has focused exclusively on the application of a single assignment variable. In many settings, however, exogenously imposed cutoffs on several assignment variables define a set of different treatments. In this paper, we show how to generalize the standard regression-discontinuity approach to include multiple assignment variables simultaneously. We demonstrate that fitting this general, flexible…

匹配与半参数工具变量估计：距离型迁移指标及青年男性工资AI 解读

Our paper estimates the effect of US internal migration on wage growth for young men between their first and second job. Our analysis of migration extends previous research by: (i) exploiting the distance-based measures of migration in the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth 1979 (NLSY79); (ii) allowing the effect of migration to differ by schooling level and (iii) using propensity score matching to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated (ATET) for movers…

具有共同因子与空间相关的大型面板AI 解读

This paper considers methods for estimating the slope coefficients in large panel data models that are robust to the presence of various forms of error cross-section dependence. It introduces a general framework where error cross-section dependence may arise because of unobserved common effects and/or error spill-over effects due to spatial or other forms of local dependencies. Initially, this paper focuses on a panel regression model where the idiosyncratic errors are…

非参数部分前沿建模中的稳健性与推断AI 解读

A major aim in recent nonparametric frontier modeling is to estimate a partial frontier well inside the sample of production units but near the optimal boundary. Two concepts of partial boundaries of the production set have been proposed: an expected maximum output frontier of order m=1,2,... and a conditional quantile-type frontier of order [alpha][set membership, variant]]0,1]. In this paper, we answer the important question of how the two families are linked. For each m,…

三角系统中更紧的识别界AI 解读

We study a nonparametric triangular system with (potentially discrete) endogenous regressors and nonseparable errors. Like in other work in this area, the parameter of interest is the structural function evaluated at particular values. We impose a global exclusion and exogeneity condition, in contrast to Chesher (2005), but develop a rank condition which is weaker than Chesher's. The alternative rank condition can be satisfied for binary endogenous regressors, and it often…

恢复连续线性泛函的工具变量方法AI 解读

This paper develops methods for estimating continuous linear functionals in nonparametric instrumental variable problems. Examples of such functionals include consumer surplus and weighted average derivatives. The estimation procedure is robust to a setting where the underlying model is not identified but the linear functional is. In order to attain such robustness, it is necessary to employ a partially identified nuisance parameter. We address this problem by consistently…

多向聚类下的稳健推断AI 解读

In this article we propose a variance estimator for the OLS estimator as well as for nonlinear estimators such as logit, probit, and GMM. This variance estimator enables cluster-robust inference when there is two-way or multiway clustering that is nonnested. The variance estimator extends the standard cluster-robust variance estimator or sandwich estimator for one-way clustering (e.g., Liang and Zeger 1986; Arellano 1987) and relies on similar relatively weak distributional…

递增混合比例风险模型：社会经济地位、健康冲击与死亡AI 解读

We introduce a duration model that allows for unobserved cumulative individual-specific shocks, which are likely to be important in explaining variations in duration outcomes, such as length of life and time spent unemployed. The model is also a useful tool in situations where researchers observe a great deal of information about individuals when first interviewed in surveys but little thereafter. We call this model the “increasingly mixed proportional hazard” (IMPH) model.…

含共同非货币回报的 Roy 模型：非参数识别与估计AI 解读

We consider identification and estimation of a Roy model that includes a common nonpecuniary utility component associated with each choice alternative. This augmented Roy model has broader applications to many polychotomous choice problems in addition to occupational sorting. We develop a pair of nonparametric estimators for this model, derive asymptotics, and illustrate small-sample properties with a series of Monte Carlo experiments. We apply one of these models to…

基于 L 统计量的二阶随机占优检验AI 解读

We use some characterizations of convex and concave-type orders to define discrepancy measures useful in two testing problems involving stochastic dominance assumptions. The results are connected with the mean value of the order statistics and have a clear economic interpretation in terms of the expected cumulative resources of the poorest (or richest) in random samples. Our approach mainly consists of comparing the estimated means in ordered samples of the involved…

避免内疚的支付意愿：均衡信念与陈述信念模型估计AI 解读

Abstract We estimate structural models of guilt aversion to measure the population level of willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid feeling guilt by letting down another player. We compare estimates of WTP under the assumption that higher‐order beliefs are in equilibrium (i.e., consistent with the choice distribution) with models estimated using stated beliefs which relax the equilibrium requirement. We estimate WTP in the latter case by allowing stated beliefs to be correlated…

股市崩盘与美国家庭预期AI 解读

Abstract This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households' expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the…

加权广义估计方程有效性的评估AI 解读

The inverse probability weighted generalized estimating equations approach (Robins et al. 1994; Robins et al. 1995), effectively removes bias and provides valid statistical inference for regression parameter estimation in marginal models when longitudinal data contain missing values. The validity of the weighted generalized estimating equations regarding consistent estimation depends on whether the underlying missing data process is properly modelled. However, there is…

不可微调查估计量的渐近正态性与方差估计AI 解读

Survey estimators of population quantities such as distribution functions and quantiles contain nondifferentiable functions of estimated quantities. The theoretical properties of such estimators are substantially more complicated to derive than those of differentiable estimators. In this article, we provide a unified framework for obtaining the asymptotic design-based properties of two common types of nondifferentiable estimators. Estimators of the first type have an…

多元贝塔过程与波利亚树模型的扩展AI 解读

We introduce a novel stochastic process that we term the multivariate beta process. The process is defined for modelling-dependent random probabilities and has beta marginal distributions. We use this process to define a probability model for a family of unknown distributions indexed by covariates. The marginal model for each distribution is a Polya tree prior. An important feature of the proposed prior is the easy centring of the nonparametric model around any parametric…

财富积累与成功的影响因素AI 解读

We use detailed income, balance sheet, and cash flow statements constructed for households in a long monthly panel in an emerging market economy, and some recent contributions in economic theory, to document and better understand the factors underlying success in achieving upward mobility in the distribution of net worth. Wealth inequality is decreasing over time, and many households work their way out of poverty and lower wealth over the seven year period. The accounts…

回归模型中的阈值效应检验AI 解读

In this article, we develop a general method for testing threshold effects in regression models, using sup-likelihood-ratio (LR)-type statistics. Although the sup-LR-type test statistic has been considered in the literature, our method for establishing the asymptotic null distribution is new and nonstandard. The standard approach in the literature for obtaining the asymptotic null distribution requires that there exist a certain quadratic approximation to the objective…

半监督加性模型中的传播评分AI 解读

This article presents a semisupervised modeling framework that combines feature-based (x) data and graph-based (G) data for classification/regression of the response Y. In this semisupervised setting, Y is observed for a subset of the observations (labeled) and missing for the remainder (unlabeled). The Propagated Scoring algorithm proposed for fitting this model is a semisupervised fixed-point regularization approach that essentially extends the generalized additive model…

受访者驱动抽样的改进推断及 HIV 患病率估计应用AI 解读

Respondent-driven sampling is a form of link-tracing network sampling, which is widely used to study hard-to-reach populations, often to estimate population proportions. Previous treatments of this process have used a with-replacement approximation, which we show induces bias in estimates for large sample fractions and differential network connectedness by characteristic of interest. We present a treatment of respondent-driven sampling as a successive sampling process.…

具有单调不平衡界限的多元匹配方法AI 解读

We introduce a new “Monotonic Imbalance Bounding” (MIB) class of matching methods for causal inference with a surprisingly large number of attractive statistical properties. MIB generalizes and extends in several new directions the only existing class, “Equal Percent Bias Reducing” (EPBR), which is designed to satisfy weaker properties and only in expectation. We also offer strategies to obtain specific members of the MIB class, and analyze in more detail a member of this…

贝叶斯空间分位数回归AI 解读

Tropospheric ozone is one of the six criteria pollutants regulated by the United States Environmental Protection Agency under the Clean Air Act and has been linked with several adverse health effects, including mortality. Due to the strong dependence on weather conditions, ozone may be sensitive to climate change and there is great interest in studying the potential effect of climate change on ozone, and how this change may affect public health. In this paper we develop a…