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新古典宏观框架下名义货币与实际产出的贝叶斯分析AI 解读

This study investigates the empirical evidence on the effects of unanticipated changes in nominal money on real output in 47 countries when viewed through a window (i.e., likelihood function) that assumes the neutrality of anticipated changes. Using a Bayesian predictivist approach, it provides a pedagogical Bayesian analysis of generated regressor models in the face of specification uncertainty involving, among other things, multiple unit root and trend stationary…

能否改进非农就业增长的初步估计？AI 解读

We explore the feasibility of improving upon the preliminary estimates of payroll employment growth from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics by predicting subsequent revisions to these estimates, using the preliminary estimates themselves and other information available concurrently. Results of statistical tests suggest that the preliminary estimates can be improved upon; that is, they are not "efficient forecasts" of the revised estimates. The improvement of preliminary…

日元兑美元外汇市场风险溢价的时间序列性质AI 解读

Abstract In this paper a VAR model is employed to construct a measure of the conditional expectations of the future yen/dollar spot rate. This measure allows us to examine the dynamics of an ex‐ante time‐series for the risk premium in the market. The VAR model produces ‘better’ forecasts than the survey responses for turbulent periods such as 1981–1982 and 1984–1985. The VAR‐generated expectations are then used to construct a risk premium time‐series. This risk premium…

初始均值未知时正态均值变化的序贯检测AI 解读

Three stopping rules are proposed to detect a change in a normal mean, when the initial value of the mean is unknown but an estimate obtained from a training sample is available. Asymptotic approximations are given for the average run length when there is no change. Under certain hypotheses about the length of time before the change occurs and the magnitude of the change, we obtain asymptotic approximations for the expected delay in detection in terms of the corresponding…

加性异常值模型中的最小距离估计AI 解读

In the additive effects outliers (A.O.) model considered here one observes $Y_{j,n} = X_j + \upsilon_{j,n}, 0 \leq j \leq n$, where $\{X_j\}$ is the first order autoregressive [AR(1)] process with the autoregressive parameter $|\rho| < 1$. The A.O.'s $\{\upsilon_{j,n}, 0 \leq j \leq n\}$ are i.i.d. with distribution function (d.f.) $(1 - \gamma_n)I\lbrack x \geq 0\rbrack + \gamma_n L_n(x), x \in \mathbb{R}, 0 \leq \gamma_n \leq 1$, where the d.f.'s $\{L_n, n \geq 0\}$ are…

长记忆平稳误差回归模型中最小二乘估计量的渐近性质AI 解读

We consider asymptotic properties of the least squares estimator (LSE) in a regression model with long-memory stationary errors. First we derive a necessary and sufficient condition that the LSE be asymptotically efficient relative to the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE). Then we derive the asymptotic distribution of the LSE under a condition on the higher-order cumulants of the white-noise process of the errors.

1851—1985年北半球爆炸性火山活动的探索性分析AI 解读

Studies of regional climate following volcanic eruptions suggest that explosive volcanism exerts a short-term cooling effect. To understand the effects of explosive volcanism on historic temperatures, it is necessary to identify changes through time in the frequency of explosive eruptions. This article presents an exploratory analysis of a record of explosive eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere over the period 1851–1985. This record is modeled as a nonstationary Poisson…

时间序列中过度影响观测值的识别AI 解读

The purpose of this paper is to develop a tool for identifying over-influential observations in time series when they are viewed in the time domain. We present a method for obtaining various measures of influence for the autocorrelation function, as well as thresholds for declaring an observation over-influential. An example of the use of these thresholds is also presented.

若干时间序列 Markov 回归模型的适切性检验AI 解读

The asymptotic distribution of residual autocorrelations and a score statistic are derived for checking model adequacy for some Markov regression models for time series. These models are natural extensions of the popular generalized linear models to time series data. The score statistic appears to be somewhat easier to use in practice. Some empirical results are also obtained for the score statistic in some simple cases. A real example is given.

周期函数频率的估计AI 解读

The problem of estimating the frequency and other parameters of a cyclical oscillation is considered, where the data consists of a periodic function observed subject to stationary additive noise. An estimation procedure is proposed and the asymptotic properties of the estimators established. Tests for unknown frequencies to be harmonics of a fundamental frequency are also developed and their asymptotic properties investigated. The procedures are applied to observations on…

重新审视永久收入假说AI 解读

Measured aggregate U.S. consumption does not behave like a martingale. The authors develop and test two variants of the permanent income model which reflect that. In both, agents make decisions in continuous time. In one variant, martingale behavior holds; serial persistence in measured consumption reflects only time aggregation. In the other, serial persistence also reflects technology shocks, and martingale behavior does not hold. Using both structural and atheoretical…

协整系统中的最优推断AI 解读

Properties of maximum likelihood estimates of cointegrated systems are studied. Alternative formulations are considered, including a new triangular system error correction mechanism. We demonstrate that full system maximum likelihood brings the problem of inference within the family covered by the locally asymptotically mixed normal asymptotic theory, provided all unit roots have been eliminated by specification and data transformation. Methodological issues provide a major…

利用最小绝对误差估计非线性动态模型AI 解读

We consider least absolute error estimation in a dynamic nonlinear model with neither independent nor identically distributed errors. The estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal, with asymptotic covariance matrix depending on the errors through the heights of their density functions at their medians (zero). A consistent estimator of the asymptotic covariance matrix of the estimator is given, and the Wald, Lagrange multiplier, and likelihood ratio tests…

协整回归的渐近有效估计AI 解读

An asymptotic optimality theory for the estimation of cointegration regressions is developed in this paper. The theory applies to a reasonably wide class of estimators without making any specific assumptions about the probability distribution or short-run dynamics of the data-generating process. Due to the nonstandard nature of the estimation problem, the conventional minimum variance criterion does not provide a convenient measure of asymptotic efficiency. An alternative…

不含截距的不稳定一阶自回归过程的连续时间近似AI 解读

We consider a first-order autoregression with i.i.d. errors and a fixed initial condition. The asymptotic distribution of the normalized least-squares estimator as the sampling interval converges to zero is shown to be the same as the exact distribution of the continuous-time estimator in an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. This asymptotic distribution permits explicit consideration of the effect of the initial condition. The appropriate moment-generating function is derived and…

无限方差误差下的 Durbin–Watson 比率AI 解读

This paper studies the properties of the von Neumann ratio for time series with infinite variance. Our asymptotics cover the null of iid variates and general moving-average (MA) alternatives. Regression residuals are also considered. In the static regression model the Durbin-Watson statistic has the same limit distribution as the von Neumann ratio. In dynamic models the results are more complex. In finite-variance models our results specialize to those of the Durbin…

Several test criteria are available for testing the hypothesis that the autoregressive polynomial of an autoregressive moving average process has a single unit root. Schwert (1989), using a Monte Carlo study, investigated the performance of some of the available test criteria. He concluded that the actual levels of the test criteria considered in his study are far from the specified levels when the moving average polynomial also has a root close to 1. This article studies…

参数不确定性对单位根与趋势平稳模型预测方差和置信区间的影响AI 解读

Abstract In this paper I describe the effect of parameter uncertainty on the way conditional forecast variances grow as the forecast horizon increases. Without parameter uncertainty, forecast variances for the unit root model grow linearly with the forecast horizon while with the trend stationary model they are bounded. With parameter uncertainty, however, I find that for both the unit root and the trend stationary models, forecast variances grow with the square of the…

税收影响货币需求的多模型与两两非嵌套检验AI 解读

Abstract The minimal computational requirements of the linear embedding techniques initiated by Davidson and MacKinnon (1981) accommodate multiple and binary tests of autoregressive, non‐nested regression models with different dependent variables. The small sample adjustments of Fisher and McAleer (1981) effectively reduce the size of the P‐tests for our models. Our application to transactions demand for money models supports the Holmes and Smyth (1972) hypothesis that…

动态线性模型诊断AI 解读

In time series analysis using dynamic linear models, retrospective analysis involves the calculation of filtered, or smoothed, distributions for state parameters in the past. We develop and illustrate novel results that are useful in retrospective assessment of the influence of individual observations on such distributions. In particular, new and computationally simple filtering equations are derived for past state parameters based on leaving out one observation at a time,…

自回归移动平均模型阶数估计札记AI 解读

A method for the estimation of parameters and model orders in an autoregressive-moving average system was introduced by Hannan & Rissanen (1982). That method may overestimate the model orders. Here an information theoretic order estimation procedure is introduced and shown to be consistent. Simulations show that the method performs well for moderate sample sizes.

高效的偏差校正非参数谱估计AI 解读

We consider estimation of a spectral density at a particular frequency. A linear model is developed based on the local second order behaviour of kernel spectral estimates and a second stage estimate is derived from this model. The estimate is shown to be asymptotically more efficient than the kernel estimate with the optimal, but unknown, bandwidth whenever the smoothing parameter is chosen so that it oversmooths the kernel estimate. A small-sample simulation study shows…

This paper considers tests of the null hypothesis of a unit root in an observed time series against the alternative that the series is level stationary. Interpolation tests whose critical values depend upon the value of the drift parameter are compared to the standard Dickey-Fuller tests in Monte Carlo simulations. The interpolation test performs quite well especially against one-sided alternatives.

回归参数稳定性的贝叶斯显著性检验AI 解读

This paper presents a Bayesian significance test for stationarity of a regression equation using the highest posterior density credible set. In addition, a solution to the Behrens-Fisher problem is provided. From a Monte Carlo simulation study, it has been shown that the Bayesian significance test has stronger power than the Cusum and the Cusum of squares tests. The Bayesian significance test may be useful in detecting individual parameter nonstationarity.