论文检索

关于“复单位根与商业周期：它们真实吗？”的札记AI 解读

This note discusses the concept of aliasing and its use in the paper by H.J. Bierens (2001, Econometric Theory 17, 962–983), in the framework of a second-order autoregression with complex unit roots. The condition on the range of the angular frequency φ is extended to φ ∈ (0,2π) − {π}.Financial support from UPV-EHU research project 9/UPV-00038.321-13503/2001, Basque Government project PI9970 and Ministerio de ciencia y tecnología BEC2003-02028 is gratefully acknowledged.

“积分时间序列非线性变换的渐近理论”补遗AI 解读

Typically in time series econometrics, for many statistics, a rescaled integrated process is replaced with Brownian motion to find the limit distribution. For averages of functions of a rescaled integrated process, Park and Phillips have shown that this remains true for functions with poles, as long as a sample-size-dependent region around the poles is excluded from consideration, the function is locally integrable, and some other regularity conditions hold. In this…

长记忆协变量过程下的回归模型拟合检验AI 解读

This paper proposes some tests for fitting a regression model with a long memory covariate process and with errors that form either a martingale difference sequence or a long memory moving average process, independent of the covariate. The tests are based on a partial sum process of the residuals from the fitted regression. The asymptotic null distribution of this process is discussed in some detail under each set of these assumptions. The proposed tests are shown to have…

分数差分参数极大似然估计量的分布展开AI 解读

The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the fractional difference parameter in the Gaussian ARFIMA(0,d,0) model is well known to be asymptotically N(0,6/π2). This paper develops asymptotic expansions to the distribution of this statistic under the assumption of a known unit variance. The correction term for the density is shown to be independent of d, so that the MLE is second-order pivotal for d. This feature of the MLE is unusual, at least in time series contexts.…

面板协整：合并时间序列检验的渐近与有限样本性质及购买力平价应用AI 解读

We examine properties of residual-based tests for the null of no cointegration for dynamic panels in which both the short-run dynamics and the long-run slope coefficients are permitted to be heterogeneous across individual members of the panel. The tests also allow for individual heterogeneous fixed effects and trend terms, and we consider both pooled within dimension tests and group mean between dimension tests. We derive limiting distributions for these and show that they…

非线性加性自回归模型的滞后识别AI 解读

Summary We propose a lag selection method for non-linear additive autoregressive models that is based on spline estimation and the Bayes information criterion. The additive structure of the autoregression function is used to overcome the ‘curse of dimensionality’, whereas the spline estimators effectively take into account such a structure in estimation. A stepwise procedure is suggested to implement the method proposed. A comprehensive Monte Carlo study demonstrates good…

半参数非线性时间序列的模型选择AI 解读

Summary Semiparametric time series regression is often used without checking its suitability, resulting in an unnecessarily complicated model. In practice, one may encounter computational difficulties caused by the curse of dimensionality. The paper suggests that to provide more precise predictions we need to choose the most significant regressors for both the parametric and the nonparametric time series components. We develop a novel cross-validation-based model selection…

摘要暂缺

长期货币中性与长跨度回归AI 解读

Abstract A prominent test of long‐run monetary neutrality (LRMN) involves regressing long‐horizon output growth on long‐horizon money growth. We obtain limited support for LRMN with this test in long‐annual Australian, Canadian, UK and US samples. Although empirical confidence intervals yield evidence in favour of LRMN, Monte Carlo experiments reveal the power of this test is near its size. Thus, this test is unlikely to detect important deviations from LRMN. These problems…

未知阶自回归过程的最优多步预测器选择AI 解读

We consider the problem of choosing the optimal (in the sense of mean-squared prediction error) multistep predictor for an autoregressive (AR) process of finite but unknown order. If a working AR model (which is possibly misspecified) is adopted for multistep predictions, then two competing types of multistep predictors (i.e., plug-in and direct predictors) can be obtained from this model. We provide some interesting examples to show that when both plug-in and direct…

非平稳与单位根情形下的局部Whittle估计AI 解读

Asymptotic properties of the local Whittle estimator in the nonstationary case (d>½) are explored. For ½ 1 and when the process has a polynomial trend of order α>½, the estimator is shown to be inconsistent and to converge in probability to unity.

GARCH 过程参数估计量的效率AI 解读

We propose a class of estimators for the parameters of a GARCH(p,q) sequence. We show that our estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal under mild conditions. The quasi-maximum likelihood and the likelihood estimators are discussed in detail. We show that the maximum likelihood estimator is optimal. If the tail of the distribution of the innovations is polynomial, even a quasi-maximum likelihood estimator based on exponential density performs better than the…

用U统计量估计线性过程的平稳分布泛函AI 解读

Suppose we observe an invertible linear process with independent mean-zero innovations and with coefficients depending on a finite-dimensional parameter, and we want to estimate the expectation of some function under the stationary distribution of the process. The usual estimator would be the empirical estimator. It can be improved using the fact that the innovations are centered. We construct an even better estimator using the representation of the observations as…

摘要暂缺

摘要暂缺

摘要暂缺

评估美联储反应函数的广义矩估计AI 解读

Estimating a forward-looking monetary policy rule by the generalized method of moments (GMM) has become a popular approach. We reexamine estimates of the Federal Reserve reaction function using several GMM estimators and a maximum likelihood (ML) estimator. First, we show that over the baseline period 1979–2000, these alternative approaches yield substantially different parameter estimates. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the finite-sample GMM bias can account…

利用全球误差修正宏观计量模型刻画地区间相互依赖AI 解读

Financial institutions are ultimately exposed to macroeconomic fluctuations in the global economy. This article proposes and builds a compact global model capable of generating forecasts for a core set of macroeconomic factors (or variables) across a number of countries. The model explicitly allows for the interdependencies that exist between national and international factors. Individual region-specific vector error-correcting models are estimated in which the domestic…

谱表示定理所用逼近的若干问题AI 解读

In many important textbooks the formal statement of the spectral representation theorem is followed by a process version, usually informal, stating that any stationary stochastic process {ξ(t), t ∈ T} is the limit in quadratic mean of a sequence of processes {S(n,t), t ∈ T}, each consisting of a finite sum of harmonic oscillations with stochastic weights. The natural issues, whether the approximation error ξ(t) − S(n,t) is stationary or whether at least it converges to zero…

时间序列模型的广义 Portmanteau 拟合优度检验AI 解读

We present a goodness-of-fit test for time series models based on the discrete spectral average estimator. Unlike current tests of goodness of fit, the asymptotic distribution of our test statistic allows the null hypothesis to be either a short- or long-range dependence model. Our test is in the frequency domain, is easy to compute, and does not require the calculation of residuals from the fitted model. This is especially advantageous when the fitted model is not a…

部分根接近一时完全修正 VAR 假设检验的稳健性AI 解读

This paper proves that the fully modified vector autoregression (FM-VAR) estimator has second-order bias effects when some roots are local to unity. These bias effects are shown to result in potentially severe size distortions in FM-VAR testing when the hypothesis involves near unit root variables. In addition, the paper reveals that with the FM-VAR method near unit roots become estimated as exact unit roots with convergence speed faster than the order of the sample size.…

协整平滑转换回归AI 解读

This paper studies the smooth transition regression model where regressors are I(1) and errors are I(0). The regressors and errors are assumed to be dependent both serially and contemporaneously. Using the triangular array asymptotics, the nonlinear least squares estimator is shown to be consistent, and its asymptotic distribution is derived. It is found that the asymptotic distribution involves a bias under the regressor-error dependence, which implies that the nonlinear…

稳健单位根检验不应被“修改”AI 解读

The rank-based unit root tests proposed by Hasan and Koenker (1997, Econometrica 65, 133–161) have power equal to size for normal innovations. Unit root tests based on M-estimators exhibit the same behavior. The problem occurs because the test statistics are transformed to obtain computationally convenient critical values. I describe a convenient way to compute critical values without transforming the test statistics. The resulting tests are almost as powerful as least…

重新考察误差自相关的简单线性回归AI 解读

This paper studies properties of ordinary and generalised least squares estimators in a simple linear regression with stationary autocorrelated errors. Explicit expressions for the variances of the regression parameter estimators are derived for some common time series autocorrelation structures, including a first‐order autoregression and general moving averages. Applications of the results include confidence intervals and an example where the variance of the trend slope…