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不同长度时间序列的多变量模型估计AI 解读

Abstract We consider the problem of estimating parametric multivariate density models when unequal amounts of data are available on each variable. We focus in particular on the case that the unknown parameter vector may be partitioned into elements relating only to a marginal distribution and elements relating to the copula. In such a case we propose using a multi‐stage maximum likelihood estimator (MSMLE) based on all available data rather than the usual one‐stage maximum…

经济时间序列周期分解的贝叶斯模型平均AI 解读

Abstract A flexible decomposition of a time series into stochastic cycles under possible non‐stationarity is specified, providing both a useful data analysis tool and a very wide model class. A Bayes procedure using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is introduced with a model averaging approach which explicitly deals with the uncertainty on the appropriate number of cycles. The convergence of the MCMC method is substantially accelerated through a convenient reparametrization…

结构变化时点的条件概率评估AI 解读

Abstract We propose a strategy for assessing structural stability in time‐series frameworks when potential change dates are unknown. Existing stability tests are effective in detecting structural change, but procedures for identifying timing are imprecise, especially in assessing the stability of variance parameters. We present a likelihood‐based procedure for assigning conditional probabilities to the occurrence of structural breaks at alternative dates. The procedure is…

间接观测下的最优变点估计AI 解读

We study nonparametric change-point estimation from indirect noisy observations. Focusing on the white noise convolution model, we consider two classes of functions that are smooth apart from the change-point. We establish lower bounds on the minimax risk in estimating the change-point and develop rate optimal estimation procedures. The results demonstrate that the best achievable rates of convergence are determined both by smoothness of the function away from the…

序列与非序列符号—秩统计量：渐近表示与渐近正态性AI 解读

The classical theory of rank-based inference is entirely based either on ordinary ranks, which do not allow for considering location (intercept) parameters, or on signed ranks, which require an assumption of symmetry. If the median, in the absence of a symmetry assumption, is considered as a location parameter, the maximal invariance property of ordinary ranks is lost to the ranks and the signs. This new maximal invariant thus suggests a new class of statistics, based on…

变化前分布含未知参数时的序贯变点检测AI 解读

In the sequential change-point detection literature, most research specifies a required frequency of false alarms at a given pre-change distribution fθ and tries to minimize the detection delay for every possible post-change distribution gλ. In this paper, motivated by a number of practical examples, we first consider the reverse question by specifying a required detection delay at a given post-change distribution and trying to minimize the frequency of false alarms for…

政府债券收益率期限结构预测AI 解读

Despite powerful advances in yield curve modeling in the last twenty years, comparatively little attention has been paid to the key practical problem of forecasting the yield curve. In this paper we do so. We use neither the no-arbitrage approach, which focuses on accurately fitting the cross section of interest rates at any given time but neglects time-series dynamics, nor the equilibrium approach, which focuses on time-series dynamics (primarily those of the instantaneous…

基于 Copula 的半参数时间序列模型估计AI 解读

This paper studies the estimation of a class of copula-based semiparametric stationary Markov models. These models are characterized by nonparametric invariant (or marginal) distributions and parametric copula functions that capture the temporal dependence of the processes; the implied transition distributions are all semiparametric, and a member in this class can be expressed as a generalized semiparametric regression transformation model. One advantage of this copula…

自回归指数过程的平稳性条件AI 解读

The stationarity conditions for an autoregressive (AR) process in general are reduced to a remarkably simple inequality if the lag coefficients are restricted to be identical. The condition is not only analytically elegant but also applicable in checking the validity of the stationarity conditions for such a restricted AR process of any order.We are deeply indebted to Professor Paolo Paruolo, NP co-editor of Econometric Theory, and anonymous referees for constructive…

含水平突变的 VAR 断点日期估计及其协整检验应用AI 解读

In testing for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive process it is important to take into account level shifts that have occurred in the sample period. Therefore the properties of estimators of the time period where a shift has taken place are investigated. The possible structural break is modeled as a simple shift in the level of the process. Two alternative estimators for the break date are considered, and their asymptotic properties are derived under various…

线性过程非线性变换下的单位根检验AI 解读

We consider the unit root testing problem with errors being nonlinear transforms of linear processes. When the linear processes are long-range dependent, the asymptotic distributions in the unit root testing problem are shown to be functionals of Hermite processes. Functional limit theorems for nonlinear transforms of linear processes are established. The obtained results differ sharply from the classical cases where asymptotic distributions are functionals of Brownian…

非参数自相关误差下非参数回归的更有效估计AI 解读

We define a three-step procedure for more efficient estimation of the nonparametric regression mean with nonparametric autocorrelated errors. The procedure is based upon a nonparametric prewhitening transformation of the dependent variable that has to be estimated from the data by a local polynomial technique. We establish the asymptotic distribution of our estimator under weak dependence conditions and show that it is more efficient than the conventional local polynomial…

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利用间距检验面板数据的横截面相关性AI 解读

This article provides tools for characterizing the extent of cross-section correlation in panel data when we do not know a priori how many and which series are correlated. Our tests are based on the probability integral transformation of the ordered correlations. We first split the transformed correlations by their size into two groups, then evaluate the variance ratio of the two subsamples. The problem of testing cross-section correlation thus becomes one of identifying…

统计发布机构做对了吗？数据理性与经济周期不对称AI 解读

This article provides new evidence on the rationality of early releases of industrial production (IP) and producer price index (PPI) data. Rather than following the usual practice of examining only first available and fully revised data, we examine the entire revision history for each variable. Thus we are able to assess, for example, whether earlier releases of data are in any sense “less” rational than later releases, and when data become rational. Our findings suggest…

实际消费、收入与财富之间的关系AI 解读

Many studies relate real nondurables and services consumption to real income and wealth, with the latter measures obtained by deflating with a price index for total consumption expenditures. This procedure is appropriate only if real nondurables and services consumption is a constant multiple of aggregate real consumption outlays, which is not the case in U.S. data. We develop an alternative approach that exploits the fact that the ratio of these series has historically been…

经济发展与人力资本回报：平滑系数半参数方法AI 解读

Abstract This paper investigates the impact of human capital on the process of economic growth by allowing the contribution of traditional inputs (capital and labour) as well as that of human capital to vary both across countries and time. The former is accomplished by constructing an index of TFP growth for traditional inputs, while the latter through semiparametric methods. We derive estimates of the output elasticity and social return to human capital for 51 countries at…

回归模型残差分析的对称诊断方法AI 解读

Typical alternative hypotheses in the analysis of residuals of a standard regression model are considered, and for each one a Bayesian diagnostic based on a symmetric form of the Kullback–Leibler divergence is determined. The results include an explicit expression for the diagnostic when the alternative hypothesis is that the errors are generated by an unknown distribution function with a Dirichlet process prior. This expression is immediately interpretable, exactly…

时变自回归过程的递归估计AI 解读

This paper focuses on recursive estimation of time varying autoregressive processes in a nonparametric setting. The stability of the model is revisited and uniform results are provided when the time-varying autoregressive parameters belong to appropriate smoothness classes. An adequate normalization for the correction term used in the recursive estimation procedure allows for very mild assumptions on the innovations distributions. The rate of convergence of the pointwise…

线性过程的分布无关拟合优度检验AI 解读

This article proposes a class of goodness-of-fit tests for the autocorrelation function of a time series process, including those exhibiting long-range dependence. Test statistics for composite hypotheses are functionals of a (approximated) martingale transformation of the Bartlett Tp-process with estimated parameters, which converges in distribution to the standard Brownian motion under the null hypothesis. We discuss tests of different natures such as omnibus, directional…

线性移动平均模型对门限移动平均模型的检验AI 解读

This paper investigates the (conditional) quasi-likelihood ratio test for the threshold in MA models. Under the hypothesis of no threshold, it is shown that the test statistic converges weakly to a function of the centred Gaussian process. Under local alternatives, it is shown that this test has nontrivial asymptotic power. The results are based on a new weak convergence of a linear marked empirical process, which is independently of interest. This paper also gives an…

重复调查与卡尔曼滤波AI 解读

The time-series nature of repeated surveys is seldom taken into account. The few studies that do so smooth the period-wise estimates without using the cross-sectional information. This leads to inefficient estimation. We present a statistical model of repeated surveys and construct a computationally simple estimator based on the Kalman filter algorithm. The method efficiently uses the whole underlying data set, but only the first and second moments of the data are required…

针对分数积分扰动的Durbin–Watson检验有限样本功效AI 解读

We consider the finite-sample power of various tests against serial correlation in the disturbances of a linear regression model when these disturbances follow certain stationary long-memory processes. It emerges that the power depends on the form of the regressor matrix and that, for the Durbin--Watson test and many other tests that can be written as ratios of quadratic forms in the disturbances, the power can drop to zero as the long-memory parameter approaches the…

利用横截面估计协整关系AI 解读

This paper specifies a regression model describing cointegrating relations between variables at the individual level. The models considered allow for homogeneous cointegration and heterogeneous cointegration. In both cases correlation between the regressors and the regression error can occur through aggregate shocks that are common to all cross-section units so the condition about the regressors being independent of the regression error is not imposed. It is shown that the…