论文检索

检验两个参数的符号一致性AI 解读

ABSTRACT We test the null hypothesis that two parameters have the same sign, assuming that (asymptotically) normal estimators are available. Examples of this problem include the analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects, causal interpretation of reduced‐form estimands, meta‐studies, and mediation analysis. A number of tests were recently proposed. We recommend a test that is simple and rejects more often than many of these recent proposals. Like all other tests in the…

局部稳健且半参数有效的贝叶斯推断AI 解读

We propose a framework for making Bayesian parametric models robust to local misspecification. Suppose in a baseline parametric model, a parameter of interest has an interpretation in an encompassing semiparametric model. Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimators are generally biased under local misspecification. We propose to augment the baseline likelihood by a multiplicative factor that involves scores for the baseline model, the efficient scores for the encompassing…

空间处理的因果推断AI 解读

Many events and policies (treatments) occur at specific spatial locations, with researchers interested in their effects on nearby units. I approach the spatial treatment setting from an experimental perspective: What ideal experiment would we design to estimate the causal effects of spatial treatments? This perspective motivates a comparison between units near realized treatment locations and units near counterfactual (unrealized) candidate locations, which differs from…

含噪协变量的因果推断：异方差测量误差与差分隐私AI 解读

We study causal inference with high‐dimensional covariates, observed with various types of heteroscedastic noise. Our main assumption is that the true covariates are low rank, which we empirically evaluate with plots and interpret as approximate repeated measurements. This assumption delivers semiparametric inference on the causal parameter, as precisely as if the true covariates were available. A methodological contribution is to introduce an error‐in‐variable balancing…

局部投影的双重稳健性与 VAR 推断的隐患AI 解读

We consider impulse response inference in a locally misspecified vector autoregression (VAR) model. The conventional local projection (LP) confidence interval has correct coverage even when the misspecification is so large that it can be detected with probability approaching 1. This result follows from a “double robustness” property analogous to that of popular partially linear regression estimators. By contrast, the conventional VAR confidence interval with…

经济增长与大型企业的崛起AI 解读

I document that the right tail of the firm size distribution systematically thickens with economic development. To rationalize this fact, I develop a parsimonious idea search model in which both aggregate growth and the firm size distribution are endogenously determined. The model features an asymptotic balanced growth path along which Gibrat's law holds at each date, and the right tail of the firm size distribution thickens monotonically toward Zipf's law. The model also…

个性化政策的机制设计：激励运动的实地实验AI 解读

Personalizing policies can theoretically increase their effectiveness. However, personalization is difficult when individual types are unobservable and the preferences of policymakers and individuals are not aligned, which could cause individuals to misreport their type. Mechanism design offers a strategy to overcome this issue: offer an “incentive‐compatible” menu of policy choices designed to induce participants to select the variant intended for their type. Using a field…

信念更新中的推断与预测差距AI 解读

Evidence from the laboratory and the field has uncovered both underreaction and overreaction to new information. We provide new experimental evidence on the underlying mechanisms of under‐ and overreaction by comparing how people make inferences and revise forecasts in the same information environment. Participants underreact to signals when inferring about underlying states, but overreact to the same signals when revising forecasts about future outcomes—a phenomenon we term…

工具变量模型中的识别：Abadie 的 Kappa 的核心作用AI 解读

We study instrumental variables models characterized by: (i) Unobserved heterogeneity consisting of potential outcomes and response types that describe how the instrument determines treatment choice; (ii) Conditional independence of the instrument and the unobserved heterogeneity; and (iii) Convex restrictions on the distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We show certain causal parameters are identified in these models if and only if a version of the kappa of Abadie…

高斯过程最大值位置分布函数的连续性AI 解读

Certain extremum estimators have asymptotic distributions that are non‐Gaussian, yet characterizable as the distribution of the arg max of a Gaussian process. This paper presents high‐level sufficient conditions under which such asymptotic distributions admit a continuous distribution function. The plausibility of the sufficient conditions is demonstrated by verifying them in three examples, namely, maximum score estimation, empirical risk minimization, and threshold…

通过近似后验传达科学不确定性AI 解读

We cast the problem of communicating scientific uncertainty as one of reporting a posterior distribution on an unknown parameter to an audience of Bayesian decision‐makers. We establish novel bounds on the audience's regret when the analyst reports an approximation to a posterior that the audience treats as exact. Under a palatable restriction on the audience's decision problems, the bounds take an especially convenient form. Under a further restriction on the audience's…

农村移民与城市非正规就业：来自巴西的证据AI 解读

This paper studies the economic effects of rural‐urban migration on Brazilian cities. Using a shift‐share IV design, we show that, over a decade, drought‐induced immigration reduces informality, has no effect on unemployment, and increases the number of formal firms and jobs. Downward formal wage adjustments play a key role, as these long‐run effects are weaker in regions with stronger wage rigidity. In the short run, when wage rigidity is strongest, we replicate the…

估计精度能够预测参数时的经验贝叶斯方法AI 解读

Gaussian empirical Bayes methods usually maintain a precision independence assumption: The unknown parameters of interest are independent from the known standard errors of the estimates. This assumption is often theoretically questionable and empirically rejected. This paper proposes to model the conditional distribution of the parameter given the standard errors as a flexibly parameterized location‐scale family of distributions, leading to a family of methods that we call…

基于最优传输的广义矩估计AI 解读

We propose a novel optimal transport‐based version of the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM). Instead of handling overidentification by reweighting the data to satisfy the moment conditions (as in Generalized Empirical Likelihood methods), this method proceeds by allowing for errors in the variables of the least mean‐square magnitude necessary to simultaneously satisfy all moment conditions. This approach, based on the notions of optimal transport and Wasserstein metric,…

线性面板模型中固定效应的最优收缩估计AI 解读

Shrinkage methods are frequently used to improve the precision of least squares estimators of fixed effects. However, widely used shrinkage estimators guarantee improved precision only under strong distributional assumptions. I develop an estimator for the fixed effects that obtains the best possible mean squared error within a class of shrinkage estimators. This class includes conventional shrinkage estimators and the optimality does not require distributional assumptions.…

延迟接受算法的实验评估：来自逾百个军官劳动力市场的证据AI 解读

Internal labor markets are increasingly important for matching workers to jobs within organizations. We present evidence from a randomized trial that compares matching workers to jobs using the deferred acceptance (DA) algorithm to the traditional manager‐directed matching process. Our setting is the U.S. Army's internal labor market, which matches over 14,000 officers to units annually. We find that DA reduces administrative burden and increases match quality as measured by…

细粒度情境中的空间经济学AI 解读

We examine the application of quantitative spatial models to the growing body of fine spatial data used to study local economic outcomes. In granular settings in which people choose from a large set of potential residence‐workplace pairs, observed outcomes in part reflect idiosyncratic choices. Using analytical examples, Monte Carlo simulations, and event studies of neighborhood employment booms, we demonstrate that calibration procedures that equate observed shares and…

卖方信息精确时的多维筛选AI 解读

A multi‐product monopolist faces a buyer who is privately informed about his valuations for the goods. As is well known, optimal mechanisms are in general complicated, while simple mechanisms—such as pure bundling or separate sales—can be far from optimal and do not admit clear‐cut comparisons. We show that this changes if the monopolist has sufficiently precise information about the buyer's valuations: Now, pure bundling always outperforms separate sales; moreover, there is…

基尼系数的子群分解：老问题的新解法AI 解读

We derive a novel decomposition of the Gini coefficient into within‐ and between‐group inequality terms that sum to the aggregate Gini coefficient. This decomposition is derived from a set of axioms that ensure desirable behavior for the within‐ and between‐group inequality terms. The decomposition of the Gini coefficient is unique given our axioms, easy to compute, and can be interpreted geometrically.

选择由谁选择：能源返利项目中的自选择定向政策AI 解读

We develop an optimal policy assignment rule that integrates two distinctive approaches commonly used in economics—targeting by observables and targeting through self‐selection . Our method can be used with experimental or quasi‐experimental data to identify who should be treated, be untreated, and self‐select to achieve a policymaker's objective. Applying this method to a randomized controlled trial on a residential energy rebate program, we find that targeting that…

加价率估计指南：评估财务数据中的估计结果AI 解读

Macroeconomic outcomes depend on the distribution of markups across firms and over time, making firm‐level markup estimates key for macroeconomic analysis. Methods to obtain these estimates require data on the prices that firms charge. Firm‐level data with wide coverage, however, primarily come from financial statements, which lack information on prices. We use an analytical framework to show that trends in markups over time or the dispersion of markups across firms can…

带多重符号与排序限制的大型结构 VARAI 解读

Large VARs are increasingly used in structural analysis as a unified framework to study the impacts of multiple structural shocks simultaneously. However, the concurrent identification of multiple shocks using sign and ranking restrictions poses significant practical challenges to the point where existing algorithms cannot be used with such large VARs. To address this, we introduce a new numerically efficient algorithm that facilitates the estimation of impulse responses and…

测量通胀预期：回答量表如何塑造密度预测AI 解读

In density forecasts, respondents are asked to assign probabilities to a response scale with pre‐specified ranges of inflation. In two large‐scale experiments, one conducted in the US and one in Germany, we show how the specifics of the response scale determine the results: Shifting, compressing, or expanding the scale leads to shifted, compressed, and expanded forecasts. Quantifying this effect using the scale most widely used among central banks, we find that mean…

自回归运动规律的通解AI 解读

We provide a complete description of the set of all solutions to a vector autoregressive law of motion. Every solution is shown to be the sum of three components, each corresponding to a directed flow of time. One component flows forward from the arbitrarily distant past, one flows backward from the arbitrarily distant future, and one flows outward from time zero. The three components are obtained by applying three complementary spectral projections to the solution, these…