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多阈值结构方程模型AI 解读

In this article, we consider the instrumental variable estimation for causal regression parameters with multiple unknown structural changes across subpopulations. We propose a multiple change point detection method to determine the number of thresholds and estimate the threshold locations in the two-stage least square procedure. After identifying the estimated threshold locations, we use the Wald method to estimate the parameters of interest, that is, the regression…

测量误差下条件预测能力相等的检验AI 解读

Loss functions are widely used to compare several competing forecasts. However, forecast comparisons are often based on mismeasured proxy variables for the true target. We introduce the concept of exact robustness to measurement error for loss functions and fully characterize this class of loss functions as the Bregman class. For such exactly robust loss functions, forecast loss differences are on average unaffected by the use of proxy variables and, thus, inference on…

基于模拟伪匹配的识别稳健推断AI 解读

We develop a general simulation-based inference procedure for partially specified models. Our procedure is based on matching auxiliary statistics to simulated counterparts where nuisance parameters are calibrated neither assuming identification of parameters of interest nor a one-to-one binding function. The conditions underlying the asymptotic validity of our (pseudo-)simulators in conjunction with appropriate bootstraps are characterized beyond the strict and exact…

GMM 与 M 估计一致性及根号样本量渐近正态性的有限矩条件诊断检验AI 解读

Common econometric analyses based on point estimates, standard errors, and confidence intervals presume the consistency and the root-n asymptotic normality of the GMM or M estimators. However, their key assumptions that data entail finite moments may not be always satisfied in applications. This article proposes a method of diagnostic testing for these key assumptions with applications to both simulated and real datasets.

动态得分驱动的独立成分分析AI 解读

A model for dynamic independent component analysis is introduced where the dynamics are driven by the score of the pseudo likelihood with respect to the rotation angle of model innovations. While conditional second moments are invariant with respect to rotations, higher conditional moments are not, which may have important implications for applications. The pseudo maximum likelihood estimator of the model is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. A…

不交叉的单指标分位数回归曲线估计AI 解读

Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Single-index quantile regression (QR) models can avoid the curse of dimensionality in nonparametric problems by assuming that the response is only related to a single linear combination of the covariates. Like the standard parametric or nonparametric QR whose estimated curves may cross, the single-index QR can also suffer quantile crossing, leading to an invalid distribution for the response. This issue has attracted considerable attention in…

高维删失回归模型的 ℓ1 惩罚成对差分估计AI 解读

High-dimensional data are nowadays readily available and increasingly common in various fields of empirical economics. This article considers estimation and model selection for a high-dimensional censored linear regression model. We combine l1-penalization method with the ideas of pairwise difference and propose an l1-penalized pairwise difference least absolute deviations (LAD) estimator. Estimation consistency and model selection consistency of the estimator are…

高维向量自回归模型的速率最优稳健估计AI 解读

High-dimensional time series data appear in many scientific areas in the current data-rich environment. Analysis of such data poses new challenges to data analysts because of not only the complicated dynamic dependence between the series, but also the existence of aberrant observations, such as missing values, contaminated observations, and heavy-tailed distributions. For high-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models, we introduce a unified estimation procedure that is…

利用高频数据推断时变协方差矩阵的最大秩AI 解读

We study the rank of the instantaneous or spot covariance matrix ΣX(t) of a multidimensional process X(t). Given high-frequency observations X(i/n), i=0,…,n, we test the null hypothesis rank(ΣX(t))≤r for all t against local alternatives where the average (r+1)st eigenvalue is larger than some signal detection rate vn. A major problem is that the inherent averaging in local covariance statistics produces a bias that distorts the rank statistics. We show that the bias depends…

通过经验熵刻画条件密度估计的极小极大速率AI 解读

We consider the task of estimating a conditional density using i.i.d. samples from a joint distribution, which is a fundamental problem with applications in both classification and uncertainty quantification for regression. For joint density estimation, minimax rates have been characterized for general density classes in terms of uniform (metric) entropy, a well-studied notion of statistical capacity. When applying these results to conditional density estimation, the use of…

有效泛函估计与超越自然预言机的现象AI 解读

We consider the estimation of two-sample integral functionals, of the type that occur naturally, for example, when the object of interest is a divergence between unknown probability densities. Our first main result is that, in wide generality, a weighted nearest neighbour estimator is efficient, in the sense of achieving the local asymptotic minimax lower bound. Moreover, we also prove a corresponding central limit theorem, which facilitates the construction of…

低秩高斯混合模型的最优估计与计算极限AI 解读

Structural matrix-variate observations routinely arise in diverse fields such as multilayer network analysis and brain image clustering. While data of this type have been extensively investigated with fruitful outcomes being delivered, the fundamental questions like its statistical optimality and computational limit are largely under-explored. In this paper, we propose a low-rank Gaussian mixture model (LrMM) assuming each matrix-valued observation has a planted low-rank…

稀疏图函数学习与广义 Kesten–Stigum 阈值AI 解读

The problem of learning graphons has attracted considerable attention across several scientific communities, with significant progress over the recent years in sparser regimes. Yet, the current techniques still require diverging degrees in order to succeed with efficient algorithms in the challenging cases where the local structure of the graph is homogeneous. This paper provides an efficient algorithm to learn graphons in the constant expected degree regime. The algorithm…

分段平稳时间序列的不重叠与滑动区块最大值方法AI 解读

Modeling univariate block maxima by the generalized extreme value distribution constitutes one of the most widely applied approaches in extreme value statistics. It has recently been found that, for an underlying stationary time series, respective estimators may be improved by calculating block maxima in an overlapping way. A proof of concept is provided that the latter finding also holds in situations that involve certain piecewise stationarities. A weak convergence result…

典范噪声分布与隐私假设检验AI 解读

f-DP has recently been proposed as a generalization of differential privacy allowing a lossless analysis of composition, post-processing, and privacy amplification via subsampling. In the setting of f-DP, we propose the concept of a canonical noise distribution (CND), the first mechanism designed for an arbitrary f-DP guarantee. The notion of CND captures whether an additive privacy mechanism perfectly matches the privacy guarantee of a given f. We prove that a CND always…

离散时间与连续时间信号的非线性独立成分分析AI 解读

We study the classical problem of recovering a multidimensional source signal from observations of nonlinear mixtures of this signal. We show that this recovery is possible (up to a permutation and monotone scaling of the source’s original component signals) if the mixture is due to a sufficiently differentiable and invertible but otherwise arbitrarily nonlinear function and the component signals of the source are statistically independent with ‘nondegenerate’ second-order…

交互与非交互局部差分隐私估计：二次泛函的两个拐点AI 解读

Local differential privacy has recently received increasing attention from the statistics community as a valuable tool to protect the privacy of individual data owners without the need of a trusted third party. Similar to the classical notion of randomized response, the idea is that data owners randomize their true information locally and only release the perturbed data. Many different protocols for such local perturbation procedures can be designed. In most estimation…

最优应对 RKHS 非参数回归中的协变量偏移AI 解读

We study the covariate shift problem in the context of nonparametric regression over a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). We focus on two natural families of covariate shift problems defined using the likelihood ratios between the source and target distributions. When the likelihood ratios are uniformly bounded, we prove that the kernel ridge regression (KRR) estimator with a carefully chosen regularization parameter is minimax rate-optimal (up to a log factor) for a…

稳健性与局部差分隐私AI 解读

It is of soaring demand to develop statistical analysis tools that are robust against contamination as well as preserving individual data owners’ privacy. In spite of the fact that both topics host a rich body of literature, to the best of our knowledge, we are the first to systematically study the connections between the optimality under Huber’s contamination model and the local differential privacy (LDP) constraints. In this paper, we start with a general minimax lower…

近似流形上的深度非参数回归：具有多项式前因子的非渐近误差界AI 解读

We study the properties of nonparametric least squares regression using deep neural networks. We derive nonasymptotic upper bounds for the excess risk of the empirical risk minimizer of feedforward deep neural regression. Our error bounds achieve minimax optimal rate and improve over the existing ones in the sense that they depend polynomially on the dimension of the predictor, instead of exponentially on dimension. We show that the neural regression estimator can circumvent…

具有一般独立列的数据矩阵的奇异值AI 解读

We analyze the singular values of a large p×n data matrix Xn=(xn1,…,xnn), where the columns {xnj} are independent p-dimensional vectors, possibly with different distributions. Assuming that the covariance matrices Σnj=Cov(xnj) of the column vectors can be asymptotically simultaneously diagonalized, with appropriately converging spectra, we establish a limiting spectral distribution (LSD) for the singular values of Xn when both dimensions p and n grow to infinity in…

Z₂ 同步中 TAP 自由能的局部凸性与 AMP 收敛AI 解读

We study mean-field variational Bayesian inference using the TAP approach, for Z2-synchronization as a prototypical example of a high-dimensional Bayesian model. We show that for any signal strength λ>1 (the weak-recovery threshold), there exists a unique local minimizer of the TAP free energy functional near the mean of the Bayes posterior law. Furthermore, the TAP free energy in a local neighborhood of this minimizer is strongly convex. Consequently, a…

凸正则化估计量的去偏与线性模型区间估计AI 解读

New upper bounds are developed for the L2 distance between ξ/Var[ξ]1/2 and linear and quadratic functions of z∼N(0,In) for random variables of the form ξ=z⊤f(z)−divf(z). The linear approximation yields a central limit theorem when the squared norm of f(z) dominates the squared Frobenius norm of ∇f(z) in expectation. Applications of this normal approximation are given for the asymptotic normality of debiased estimators in linear regression with correlated design and convex…

经营单位年龄与工资AI 解读

This paper investigates the relationship between establishment age and wages. A key challenge is that new establishments differ from mature establishments along many dimensions due to non-random survival of establishments. Furthermore, worker composition changes as establishments age. To get around this, the paper uses linked employer–employee data from Germany and estimates the establishment age–wage relationship controlling for establishment and worker fixed effects and…