论文检索

污染机制下后验采样的隐私保证AI 解读

In recent years, differential privacy has been adopted by tech-companies and governmental agencies as the standard for measuring privacy in algorithms. In this article, we study differential privacy in Bayesian posterior sampling settings. We begin by considering differential privacy in the most common privatisation setting in which Laplace or Gaussian noise is injected into the output. In an effort to achieve better differential privacy, we consider adopting Huber’s…

用 e 值衡量反对交换性与群不变性的证据AI 解读

We study e-values for quantifying evidence against exchangeability and general invariance of a random variable under a compact group. We start by characterizing such e-values, and explaining how they nest traditional group invariance tests as a special case. We show they can be easily designed for an arbitrary test statistic, and computed through Monte Carlo sampling. We prove a result that characterizes optimal e-values for group invariance against optimality targets that…

变量选择的假发现率估计AI 解读

We introduce a generic estimator for the false discovery rate of any model selection procedure, in common statistical modeling settings including the Gaussian linear model, Gaussian graphical model, and model-X setting. We prove that our method has a conservative (nonnegative) bias in finite samples under standard statistical assumptions, and provide a bootstrap method for assessing its standard error. For methods like the Lasso, forward-stepwise regression, and the…

DiPMInd：基于距离剖面的随机对象相互独立性检验AI 解读

This paper develops a novel unified framework for testing mutual independence among random objects residing in possibly different metric spaces. The framework generalizes existing methodologies and introduces new measures of mutual independence, and proposes associated tests that achieve minimax rate optimality and exhibit strong empirical power. The foundation of the proposed tests is the new concept of joint distance profiles, which uniquely characterize the joint law of…

基于分割的非参数 M 估计量的一致估计与推断AI 解读

This paper presents uniform estimation and inference theory for a large class of nonparametric partitioning-based M-estimators. The main theoretical results include: (i) uniform consistency for convex and nonconvex objective functions; (ii) rate-optimal uniform Bahadur representations; (iii) rate-optimal uniform (and mean square) convergence rates; (iv) valid strong approximations and feasible uniform inference methods; and (v) extensions to functional transformations of…

流形上的高阶精确统计推断AI 解读

We present a new framework for statistical inference on Riemannian manifolds that achieves high-order accuracy, addressing the challenges posed by non-Euclidean parameter spaces frequently encountered in modern data science. Our approach leverages a novel and computationally efficient procedure to reach higher-order asymptotic precision. In particular, we develop a bootstrap algorithm on Riemannian manifolds that is both computationally efficient and accurate for hypothesis…

高维混合模型的局部几何：有效谱理论与动力学转变AI 解读

We study the local geometry of empirical risks in high dimensions via the spectral theory of their Hessian and information matrices. We focus on settings where the data, (Yℓ)ℓ=1n∈Rd, are i.i.d. draws of a k-Gaussian mixture model, and the loss depends on the projection of the data into a fixed number of vectors, namely x⊤Y, where x∈Rd×C are the parameters, and C need not equal k. This setting captures a broad class of problems such as classification by one and two-layer…

稀疏与稳健回归中近似消息传递的非渐近分布理论AI 解读

Characterizing the distribution of high-dimensional statistical estimators is a challenging task, due to the breakdown of classical asymptotic theory in high dimension. This paper makes progress towards this by developing non-asymptotic distributional characterizations for approximate message passing (AMP)—a family of iterative algorithms that prove effective as both fast estimators and powerful theoretical machinery—for both sparse and robust regression. Prior AMP theory,…

债券与股票共同定价的因子动物园AI 解读

We analyze 18 quadrillion models for the joint pricing of corporate bond and stock returns. Strikingly, we find that equity and nontradable factors alone suffice to explain corporate bond risk premia once their Treasury term structure risk is accounted for, rendering the extensive bond factor literature largely redundant for this purpose. While only a handful of factors, behavioral and nontradable, are likely robust sources of priced risk, the true latent stochastic discount…

不预设平稳性的 GARCH(1,1) 过程变化检测AI 解读

This article develops a new test to detect changes in generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (GARCH(1,1)) processes without imposing a stationary assumption. Specifically, the procedure tests the null hypothesis of a GARCH process with constant parameters, either in (strictly) stationary or explosive regimes, against the alternative hypothesis of parameter changes. We derive the limiting distribution of the test statistics and establish their asymptotic…

这个冲击不同：误设双向固定效应面板回归的估计与推断AI 解读

We investigate the properties of the linear two-way fixed effects (FE) estimator for panel data when the underlying data generating process (DGP) does not have a linear parametric structure. The FE estimator is consistent for some pseudo-true value and we characterize the corresponding asymptotic distribution. We show that the rate of convergence is determined by the degree of model misspecification, and that the asymptotic distribution can be non-normal. We propose a novel…

具有二元分位数选择的分位数回归半参数估计AI 解读

This article proposes a novel method for estimating quantile regression models that account for sample selection. Unlike the approach by Arellano and Bonhomme (2017, Econometrica 85(1), 1–28; hereafter referred to as AB17), which employs a parametric selection equation, our method utilizes a standard binary quantile regression model to handle the selection issue, thereby accommodating general heterogeneity in both the selection and outcome equations. We adopt a…

以可检验假设扩展经济模型：理论与应用AI 解读

This article studies the identification of complete economic models with testable assumptions. We start with a local average treatment effect ( L A T E $LATE$ upper L upper A upper T upper E ) model where the “No Defiers,” the independent IV assumption, and the exclusion restrictions can be jointly refuted by some data distributions. We propose two relaxed assumptions that are not refutable, with one assumption focusing on relaxing the “No Defiers” assumption while the other…

具有全局与局部因子的三维因子模型AI 解读

This article considers a three-dimensional latent factor model in the presence of one set of global factors and two sets of local factors. We show that the numbers of global and local factors can be estimated uniformly and consistently. Given the number of global and local factors, we propose a two-step estimation procedure based on principal component analysis (PCA) and establish the asymptotic properties of the PCA estimators. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that they…

时间序列不确定性量化的高阶近似AI 解读

For time series with high temporal correlation, the empirical process converges rather slowly to its limiting distribution. Many statistics in change-point analysis, goodness-of-fit testing, and uncertainty quantification admit a representation as functionals of the empirical process and therefore inherit its slow convergence. As a result, inference based on the asymptotic distribution of those quantities is significantly affected by relatively small sample sizes. We assess…

基于保序回归的结构变化检验AI 解读

Detecting structural changes in economic relationships has been a longstanding challenge in econometrics. Most of the literature on structural breaks has considered abrupt structural breaks. Existing tests for detecting smooth structural change typically rely on kernel estimation. In this article, we introduce a novel tuning-parameter-free test that minimizes a criterion function over all possible nondecreasing or nonincreasing structural change functions. This test is…

因果工具变量模型中的贝叶斯模型平均AI 解读

ABSTRACT Instrumental variables are a popular tool to infer causal effects under unobserved confounding, but choosing suitable instruments is challenging in practice. We propose gIVBMA, a Bayesian model averaging procedure that addresses this challenge by averaging across different sets of instrumental variables and covariates in a structural equation model. This allows for data‐driven selection of valid and relevant instruments and provides additional robustness against…

无混杂与共同趋势的联合检验AI 解读

ABSTRACT We introduce an overidentification test of two alternative assumptions to identify the average treatment effect on the treated in a two‐period panel data setting: unconfoundedness and common trends. Under unconfoundedness, treatment assignment and post‐treatment outcomes are independent, conditional on control variables and pre‐treatment outcomes, which motivates including the pre‐treatment outcomes in the set of controls. Under common trends, the trend and the…

自适应随机实验中的最优协变量离散化AI 解读

ABSTRACT This paper introduces a novel method to adaptively design randomized experiments. For randomized experiments with a pilot stage, or multistage experiments, Hahn et al. (2011) propose an adaptive experimental design that adjusts the next stage's propensity score based on data from the previous stages. This paper discusses how the discretization of covariates affects the precision of the estimation of the average treatment effect (ATE) through the estimated propensity…

回归不连续效应及其外部有效性的联合推断AI 解读

ABSTRACT The external validity of regression discontinuity designs is crucial for informing policy but is rarely examined in applied work. To advance empirical practice, we propose a joint inference procedure for the treatment effect and its local external validity, captured by the treatment effect derivative (TED), within a robust bias correction framework. We further introduce a locally linear treatment effects assumption, which extends the scope of the TED and enables…

以倾向得分校准改善双重／去偏机器学习的平均处理效应有限样本估计AI 解读

ABSTRACT Double/debiased machine learning (DML) uses for estimating an average treatment effect (ATE) a double‐robust score function that relies on the prediction of nuisance functions, such as the propensity score, which is the probability of treatment assignment given covariates. Estimators relying on double‐robust score functions are highly sensitive to errors in propensity score predictions. Machine learning algorithms have been found to produce models that often…

宏观经济新闻冲击与意外冲击的估计AI 解读

ABSTRACT A common VAR approach is to identify responses to TFP news shocks by maximizing the variance share of TFP over a long horizon. We find that these TFP max share estimators tend to be biased in large samples when applied to data generated from DSGE models with shock processes that match TFP moments in the data, especially in the presence of TFP measurement error. We propose an alternative max share news estimator that reduces this bias and the RMSE of the impulse…

动态因子相关性AI 解读

ABSTRACT We introduce a dynamic factor correlation model whose core methodological innovation is a variation‐free parametrization of dynamic factor loadings, inspired by the generalized Fisher transformation. The model accommodates time‐varying correlations, heterogeneous heavy tails, and dependent idiosyncratic shocks. Applied to a Small Universe of 12 assets and a Large Universe of 323 stocks, the factor structure induces a sparse idiosyncratic correlation matrix with…

含时变协变量的直接与间接处理效应AI 解读

ABSTRACT We propose a simple approach to treatment effect estimation in panel data that is valid when the number of time periods is small and the parallel trends condition is violated due to the presence of interactive fixed effects. The procedure allows the covariates to be affected by treatment and enables separation of the part of the estimated treatment effect that is due to the covariates from the part that is not. The asymptotic properties of the new approach are…