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北极海冰何时消失？面积、范围、厚度与体积预测AI 解读

Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea ice: area, extent, thickness, and volume. Importantly, we enforce the joint constraint that these measures must simultaneously arrive at an ice-free Arctic. We apply this constrained joint forecast procedure to models relating sea ice to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and models relating…

广义线性模型中的结构化稀疏估计量AI 解读

In this paper, we introduce structured sparsity estimators for use in Generalized Linear Models. Structured sparsity estimators in the least squares loss are introduced by Stucky and van de Geer (2018). Their proofs exclusively depend on their use of fixed design and normal errors. We extend their results to debiased structured sparsity estimators with Generalized Linear Model based loss through incorporating random design and non-sub Gaussian data. Structured sparsity…

DSGE 模型全局识别问题的一种解法AI 解读

We develop an analytical framework to study global identification in structural models with forward-looking expectations. Our identification condition combines the similarity transformation linking the observationally equivalent state space systems with the constraints imposed on them by the model parameters. The key step of solving the identification problem then reduces to finding all roots of a system of polynomial equations. We show how it can be done using the concept…

连续时间整数值拖曳过程的推断与预测AI 解读

This paper develops likelihood-based methods for estimation, inference, model selection, and forecasting of continuous-time integer-valued trawl processes. The full likelihood of integer-valued trawl processes is, in general, highly intractable, motivating the use of composite likelihood methods, where we consider the pairwise likelihood in lieu of the full likelihood. Maximizing the pairwise likelihood of the data yields an estimator of the parameter vector of the model,…

用机器学习识别共同基金经理的技能AI 解读

We show, using machine learning, that fund characteristics can consistently differentiate high from low-performing mutual funds, before and after fees. The outperformance persists for more than three years. Fund momentum and fund flow are the most important predictors of future risk-adjusted fund performance, while characteristics of the stocks that funds hold are not predictive. Returns of predictive long-short portfolios are higher following a period of high sentiment. Our…

家庭破产中的道德风险与流动性AI 解读

ABSTRACT This paper studies the role of moral hazard and liquidity in driving household bankruptcy. First, I estimate that increases in potential debt forgiveness have a positive, but small, effect on filing using a regression kink design. Second, exploiting quasi‐experimental variation in mortgage payment reductions, I estimate that filing is five times more responsive to cash‐on‐hand than relief generosity. Using a sufficient statistic, I show the estimates imply large…

条件风险价值与条件预期损失的同时置信带AI 解读

Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) and conditional expected shortfall (CES) are widely adopted risk measures which help monitor potential tail risk while adapting to evolving market information. In this paper, we propose an approach to constructing simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for tail risk as measured by CVaR and CES, with the confidence bands uniformly valid for a set of tail levels. We consider one-sided tail risk (downside or upside tail risk) as well as relative…

Olley–Pakes 生产函数估计量的识别与影响函数AI 解读

In this paper, we reconsider the assumptions that ensure the identification of the production function in Olley and Pakes (1996, Econometrica 64, 1263–1297). We show that an index restriction plays a crucial role in the identification, especially if the capital stock is measured by the perpetual inventory method. The index restriction is not sufficient for identification under sample selectivity. The index restriction makes it possible to derive the influence function and…

局部平坦函数系数回归的极限理论AI 解读

Functional coefficient (FC) regressions allow for systematic flexibility in the responsiveness of a dependent variable to movements in the regressors, making them attractive in applications where marginal effects may depend on covariates. Such models are commonly estimated by local kernel regression methods. This paper explores situations where responsiveness to covariates is locally flat or fixed. The paper develops new asymptotics that take account of shape characteristics…

高频事件高维计数过程的无惩罚估计AI 解读

This paper introduces a counting process for event arrivals in high-frequency trading, based on high-dimensional covariates. The novelty is that, under sparsity conditions on the true model, we do not need to impose any model penalty or parameters shrinkage, unlike Lasso. The procedure allows us to derive a central limit theorem to test restrictions in a two-stage estimator. We achieve this by the use of a sign constraint on the intensity which necessarily needs to be…

空间数据的非参数预测AI 解读

We describe a (nonparametric) prediction algorithm for spatial data, based on a canonical factorization of the spectral density function. We provide theoretical results showing that the predictor has desirable asymptotic properties. Finite sample performance is assessed in a Monte Carlo study that also compares our algorithm to a rival nonparametric method based on the infinite $AR$ representation of the dynamics of the data. Finally, we apply our methodology to predict…

一般条件异方差与得分驱动时间序列模型的局部渐近正态性AI 解读

The paper establishes the local asymptotic normality property for general conditionally heteroskedastic time series models of multiplicative form, $\epsilon _t=\sigma _t(\boldsymbol {\theta }_0)\eta _t$ , where the volatility $\sigma _t(\boldsymbol {\theta }_0)$ is a parametric function of $\{\epsilon _{s}, s< t\}$ , and $(\eta _t)$ is a sequence of i.i.d. random variables with common density $f_{\boldsymbol {\theta }_0}$ . In contrast with earlier results, the finite…

摘要暂缺

分位数自回归条件异方差模型AI 解读

Abstract This article proposes a novel conditional heteroscedastic time series model by applying the framework of quantile regression processes to the ARCH(∞) form of the GARCH model. This model can provide varying structures for conditional quantiles of the time series across different quantile levels, while including the commonly used GARCH model as a special case. The strict stationarity of the model is discussed. For robustness against heavy-tailed distributions, a…

经典因子分析中的 Varimax 旋转具有统计推断作用AI 解读

Abstract In the 1930s, Psychologists began developing Multiple-Factor Analysis to decompose multivariate data into a small number of interpretable factors without any a priori knowledge about those factors. In this form of factor analysis, the Varimax factor rotation redraws the axes through the multi-dimensional factors to make them sparse and thus make them more interpretable. Charles Spearman and many others objected to factor rotations because the factors seem to be…

重新审视簇范围推断：脑活动的量化与定位AI 解读

Abstract Cluster inference based on spatial extent thresholding is a popular analysis method multiple testing in spatial data, and is frequently used for finding activated brain areas in neuroimaging. However, the method has several well-known issues. While powerful for finding regions with some activation, the method as currently defined does not allow any further quantification or localisation of signal. In this paper, we repair this gap. We show that cluster-extent…

利用泊松近似似然对流行病舱室模型进行一致且快速的推断AI 解读

Abstract Addressing the challenge of scaling-up epidemiological inference to complex and heterogeneous models, we introduce Poisson approximate likelihood (PAL) methods. In contrast to the popular ordinary differential equation (ODE) approach to compartmental modelling, in which a large population limit is used to motivate a deterministic model, PALs are derived from approximate filtering equations for finite-population, stochastic compartmental models, and the large…

部分线性单指标变系数模型的两阶段估计与偏差校正经验似然AI 解读

Abstract The estimation and empirical likelihood (EL) of the parameters of interest in a partially linear single-index varying-coefficient model are studied. A two-stage method is presented to estimate the regression parameters and the coefficient functions. The asymptotic distributions of the proposed estimators are obtained. Meanwhile, a bias-corrected EL ratio for the regression parameters is proposed. It is shown that the ratio is asymptotically standard chi-squared. The…

利用深度条件生成学习检验时间序列的马尔可夫性AI 解读

Abstract The Markov property is widely imposed in analysis of time series data. Correspondingly, testing the Markov property, and relatedly, inferring the order of a Markov model, are of paramount importance. In this article, we propose a nonparametric test for the Markov property in high-dimensional time series via deep conditional generative learning. We also apply the test sequentially to determine the order of the Markov model. We show that the test controls the type-I…

归一化潜在测度因子模型AI 解读

Abstract We propose a methodology for modelling and comparing probability distributions within a Bayesian nonparametric framework. Building on dependent normalised random measures, we consider a prior distribution for a collection of discrete random measures where each measure is a linear combination of a set of latent measures, interpretable as characteristic traits shared by different distributions, with positive random weights. The model is nonidentified and a method for…

多协变量预期短缺回归的稳健估计与推断AI 解读

Abstract Expected shortfall (ES), also known as superquantile or conditional value-at-risk, is an important measure in risk analysis and stochastic optimisation and has applications beyond these fields. In finance, it refers to the conditional expected return of an asset given that the return is below some quantile of its distribution. In this paper, we consider a joint regression framework recently proposed to model the quantile and ES of a response variable simultaneously,…

通过双臂老虎机过程构造策略性两样本检验AI 解读

Abstract This study aims to improve the power of two-sample tests by analysing whether the difference between two population parameters is larger than a prespecified positive equivalence margin. The classic test statistic treats the original data as exchangeable, while the proposed test statistic breaks the structure and proposes employing a two-armed bandit process to strategically integrate the data and thus a strategy-specific test statistic is constructed by combining…

大规模分布式学习的拟牛顿更新AI 解读

Abstract Distributed computing is critically important for modern statistical analysis. Herein, we develop a distributed quasi-Newton (DQN) framework with excellent statistical, computation, and communication efficiency. In the DQN method, no Hessian matrix inversion or communication is needed. This considerably reduces the computation and communication complexity of the proposed method. Notably, related existing methods only analyse numerical convergence and require a…

Ying Zhou与Xinyi Zhang对Varimax因子分析论文的讨论AI 解读

We congratulate Rohe and Zeng for their inspiring work on providing theoretical support for Varimax rotation in factor analysis. A key contribution of the article is the demonstration that if the factors in the semi-parametric factor model follow heavy-tailed distribution, then performing principal components analysis (PCA) on the observed data matrix along with Varimax rotation applied to the principal components does produce interpretable explanatory variables. We have the…