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多元时间序列因果性的稳健最优检验AI 解读

Here, we derive optimal rank-based tests for noncausality in the sense of Granger between two multivariate time series. Assuming that the global process admits a joint stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) representation with an elliptically symmetric innovation density, both no feedback and one direction causality hypotheses are tested. Using the characterization of noncausality in the VAR context, the local asymptotic normality (LAN) theory described in Le Cam (1986,…

横截面相关下的面板向量自回归AI 解读

This paper studies estimation in panel vector autoregression (VAR) under cross-sectional dependence. The time series are allowed to be an unknown mixture of stationary and unit root processes with possible cointegrating relations. The cross-sectional dependence is modeled with a factor structure. We extend the factor analysis in Bai and Ng (2002, Econometrica 70, 91--221) to vector processes. The fully modified (FM) estimator in Phillips (1995) is used for estimation in…

一类分数阶过程向量自回归模型的表示理论AI 解读

Based on an idea of Granger (1986, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 48, 213–228), we analyze a new vector autoregressive model defined from the fractional lag operator 1 − (1 − L ) d . We first derive conditions in terms of the coefficients for the model to generate processes that are fractional of order zero. We then show that if there is a unit root, the model generates a fractional process X t of order d , d > 0, for which there are vectors β so that β‼ X t is…

具有无限方差创新的一阶多变量自回归AI 解读

We consider the limiting behavior of a vector autoregressive model of order one (VAR(1)) with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) innovations vector with dependent components in the domain of attraction of a multivariate stable law with possibly different indices of stability. It is shown that in some cases the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates are inconsistent. This inconsistency basically originates from the fact that each coordinate of the partial sum…

宏观经济预测中的 VARMA 与 VAR 比较AI 解读

In this article, we argue that there is no compelling reason for restricting the class of multivariate models considered for macroeconomic forecasting to vector autoregressive (VAR) models, given the recent advances in vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) modeling methodology and improvements in computing power. To support this claim, we use real macroeconomic data, and show that VARMA models forecast macroeconomic variables more accurately than VARs.

大缓和来源的贝叶斯反事实分析AI 解读

Abstract We use counterfactual experiments to investigate the sources of the large volatility reduction in US real GDP growth in the 1980s. Contrary to an existing literature that conducts counterfactual experiments based on classical estimation and point estimates, we consider Bayesian analysis that provides a straightforward measure of estimation uncertainty for the counterfactual quantity of interest. Using Blanchard and Quah's ( 1989 ) structural VAR model of output…

线性协整下区制切换误差修正模型的稳定性AI 解读

The paper obtains conditions that ensure stationarity of linear long-run equilibrium relations and differenced observations in vector autoregressive error correction models with nonlinear short-run dynamics. The considered models include various threshold error correction models and their smooth transition counterparts. These models assume that the form of the short-run dynamics depends on values of observable transition functions that determine the regime in which the…

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现值关系、格兰杰非因果性与VAR稳定性AI 解读

When in the class of “exact” present value (PV) relations the decision variables do not Granger cause the explanatory variables, and a vector autoregressive (VAR) process is used to derive the cross-equation restrictions, the system embodies explosive roots, which hardly can be reconciled with the typical features observed in most macroeconomic time series. This paper investigates the issue.I thank Paolo Paruolo and two anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions…

长面板协整模型的统计推断AI 解读

This article presents a general likelihood-based framework for inference in panel vector autoregressive (VAR) models with cointegration restrictions. The cointegrating relationships are restricted to each cross section while the rest of the model is unrestricted. The homogeneous restriction of common cointegrating space is also considered. Asymptotic distributions of parameter estimators and the test statistics for the cointegrating rank and the homogeneous restriction are…

多元时间序列间不相关性的最优检验AI 解读

The problem of testing noncorrelation between two multivariate time series is considered. Assuming that the global process admits a joint vector autoregressive (VAR) representation, noncorrelation between the two component series is equivalent to the hypothesis that all off-diagonal blocks in the matrix coefficients and the innovation covariance of the joint VAR representation are zero. We establish an adequate local asymptotic normality (LAN) property for this VAR model in…

基于 VAR 近似的协整检验修正信息准则AI 解读

We consider the cointegration tests of Johansen (1988, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12, 231–254; 1991, Econometrica 59, 1551–1580) when a vector autoregressive (VAR) process of order k is used to approximate a more general linear process with a possibly infinite VAR representation. Traditional methods to select the lag order, such as Akaike's information criterion (AIC) or the Bayesian information criterion, often lead to too parsimonious a model with the…

I(2) 模型协整秩的似然比检验AI 解读

This paper presents the likelihood ratio (LR) test for the number of cointegrating relations in the I(2) vector autoregressive model. It is shown that the asymptotic distribution of the LR test for the cointegration ranks is identical to the asymptotic distribution of the much applied test statistic based on the two-step estimation procedure in Johansen (1995, Econometric Theory 11, 25–59), Paruolo (1996, Journal of Econometrics 72, 313–356), and Rahbek, Kongsted, and…

利用长自回归估计脉冲响应函数AI 解读

This article proposes an alternative methodology to estimate impulse response functions without imposing parametric restrictions. The impulse responses are estimated by regressing the series of interest on estimated innovations, which are the residuals obtained from a prior-stage "long autoregression." We establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2007

向量自回归过程的单整阶数AI 解读

We show that the order of integration of a vector autoregressive process is equal to the difference between the multiplicity of the unit root in the characteristic equation and the multiplicity of the unit root in the adjoint matrix polynomial. The equivalence with the standard I(1) and I(2) conditions (Johansen, 1996, Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Auto-Regressive Models) is proved.I am very grateful to Søren Johansen for his precious insights and his…

三变量 VAR 过程长期因果关系的有效检验：货币—收入关系的滚动窗口研究AI 解读

Abstract This paper develops a simple sequential multiple‐horizon non‐causation test strategy for trivariate VAR models (with one auxiliary variable). We apply the test strategy to a rolling window study of money supply and real income, with the price of oil, the unemployment rate and the spread between the Treasury bill and commercial paper rates as auxiliary processes. Ours is the first study to control simultaneously for common stochastic trends, sensitivity of test…

基于市场的货币政策预期度量AI 解读

A number of recent articles have used different financial market instruments to measure near-term expectations of the federal funds rate and the high-frequency changes in these instruments around Federal Open Market Committee announcements to measure monetary policy shocks. This article evaluates the empirical success of a variety of financial market instruments in predicting the future path of monetary policy. All of the instruments we consider provide forecasts that are…

向量自回归脉冲响应的内在贝叶斯估计AI 解读

We propose an information-theoretic alternative to the conventional Bayesian posterior mean estimator of impulse responses in vector autoregression (VAR) models. The proposed estimator is based on the intrinsic entropy loss function, which is invariant to nonlinear transformations of parameters. Consequently, intrinsic estimation of impulse responses is equivalent to that of VAR parameters. The Bayesian estimator under the entropy loss involves a frequentist expectation of…

弱外生性下的永久—暂时分解AI 解读

This note shows that the orthogonal shocks obtained by imposing a recursive structure on the contemporaneous impacts of the errors in a vector-error correction model (VECM) are related to the orthogonal permanent-transitory shocks in a Gonzalo and Ng (2001, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 25, 1527–1546) decomposition provided some of the variables in the system are weakly exogenous. Specifically, when there are as many weakly exogenous variables as common trends and…

因子模型中原始冲击数量的确定AI 解读

A widely held but untested assumption underlying macroeconomic analysis is that the number of shocks driving economic fluctuations, q, is small. In this article we associate q with the number of dynamic factors in a large panel of data. We propose a methodology to determineq without having to estimate the dynamic factors. We first estimate a VAR in r static factors, where the factors are obtained by applying the method of principal components to a large panel of data, then…

欧元区的国际联系：全球 VAR 分析AI 解读

Abstract This paper presents a quarterly global model combining individual country vector error‐correcting models in which the domestic variables are related to the country‐specific foreign variables. The global VAR (GVAR) model is estimated for 26 countries, the euro area being treated as a single economy, over the period 1979–2003. It advances research in this area in a number of directions. In particular, it provides a theoretical framework where the GVAR is derived as an…

协整自回归模型中的共同依赖周期AI 解读

Abstract This paper investigates codependent cycles, i.e., transitory components that react to common stimuli in a similar, although not necessarily synchronous fashion. Unlike previous studies, the methodology of this paper allows FIML estimation of the restricted VAR/VECM and therefore the extraction of the unobserved codependent cyclical components via a Beveridge‐Nelson decomposition. It is further shown that the number and order of cofeature combinations that yield the…

长预测期多变量脉冲响应函数的小样本置信区间AI 解读

Abstract Existing methods for constructing confidence bands for multivariate impulse response functions may have poor coverage at long lead times when variables are highly persistent. The goal of this paper is to propose a simple method that is not pointwise and that is robust to the presence of highly persistent processes. We use approximations based on local‐to‐unity asymptotic theory, and allow the horizon to be a fixed fraction of the sample size. We show that our method…

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