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电价的状态转换长记忆模型AI 解读

In this paper we develop a regime switching model which can generate long memory (fractional integration) in each of the regime states. This property is relevant in a number of cases. For instance, the deregulated market for electricity power in the Nordic countries is characterized by electricity spot prices with a high degree of long memory. It occurs that in some time periods bilateral prices are identical whereas in other periods the prices differ. The latter occurs when…

VAR 模型中协整秩检验与选择的自助法算法AI 解读

In this paper a bootstrap algorithm for a reduced rank vector autoregressive model with a restricted linear trend and independent, identically distributed errors is analyzed. For testing the cointegration rank, the asymptotic distribution under the hypothesis is the same as for the usual likelihood ratio test, so that the bootstrap is consistent. It is furthermore shown that a bootstrap procedure for determining the rank is asymptotically consistent in the sense that the…

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短时段内协整关系失效的检验AI 解读

This article introduces tests for cointegration breakdown that may occur over a relatively short time period, such as at the end of the sample. The breakdown may be due to a shift in the cointegrating vector or due to a shift in the errors from being I(0) to being I(1). Tests are introduced based on the postbreakdown sum of squared residuals and sum of squared reverse partial sums of residuals. Critical values are provided using a subsampling method. Asymptotic results take…

不平衡协整AI 解读

Recently, increasing interest in the issue of fractional cointegration has emerged from theoretical and empirical viewpoints. Here, as opposed to the traditional prescription of unit root observables with weak dependent cointegrating errors, the orders of integration of these series are allowed to take real values, but, as in the traditional framework, equality of the orders of at least two observable series is necessary for cointegration. This assumption, in view of the…

无需观测过程矩假设的一般 GARCH(1,1) 模型混合性质AI 解读

We consider general, and possibly nonparametric, GARCH(1,1) processes. First we give conditions for the existence and the uniqueness of stationary ergodic solutions. Then we identify additional conditions for geometric ergodicity. These conditions consist of mild restrictions on the distribution of the latent independent process. No moment assumption is made on the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) process. Applications to the asymptotic…

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基于德国数据的欧元区小型货币系统AI 解读

Abstract Previous euro area money demand studies have used aggregated national time series data from the countries participating in the European Monetary Union (EMU). However, aggregation may be problematic because macroeconomic convergence processes have taken place in the countries of interest. Therefore, in this study, quarterly German data until 1998 are combined with data from the euro area from 1999 until 2002 and these series are used for fitting a small vector error…

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Burridge–Guerre 非参数单位根检验的推广AI 解读

In this note the nonparametric unit root test of Burridge and Guerre (1996, Econometric Theory, 12, 705–723), which is based on the standardized number of crossings of a level of a random walk, is extended in two ways, allowing for a deterministic trend in the process and more general innovations. The test has a well-known standard limit distribution. Monte Carlo experiments revealed the good finite-sample properties of the proposed test.The authors appreciate helpful…

内生解释变量单方程协整模型中的 fixed-b 渐近理论AI 解读

This note uses fixed bandwidth (fixed-b) asymptotic theory to suggest a new approach to testing cointegration parameters in a single-equation cointegration environment. It is shown that the standard tests still have asymptotic distributions that are free of serial correlation nuisance parameters regardless of the bandwidth or kernel used, even if the regressors in the cointegration relationship are endogenous.I thank Tim Vogelsang for his guidance, Pentti Saikkonen for the…

平稳与非平稳协整回归的工具变量估计AI 解读

Instrumental variables estimation is classically employed to avoid simultaneous equations bias in a stable environment. Here we use it to improve upon ordinary least-squares estimation of cointegrating regressions between non-stationary and/or long memory stationary variables where the integration orders of regressor and disturbance sum to less than 1, as happens always for stationary regressors, and sometimes for mean-reverting non-stationary ones. Unlike in the classical…

三区制SETAR模型中的单位根检验AI 解读

This paper proposes a simple testing procedure to distinguish a unit root process from a globally stationary three-regime self-exciting threshold autoregressive process. Following the threshold cointegration literature we assume that the process follows the random walk in the corridor regime, and therefore we propose that the null of a unit root be tested by the Wald statistic for the joint significance of autoregressive parameters in both lower and upper regimes. We…

初始观测来自无条件分布时的单位根检验与结构变化AI 解读

Following Elliott (1999; International Economic Review 40, 767--83.) and Perron and Rodríguez (2003; Journal of Econometrics 115,1--27), we develop unit root tests in the context of structural change models using GLS detrended data ( Elliott, Rothenberg and Stock 1996; Econometrica 64, 813--39) when the initial observation is drawn from its unconditional distribution. We derive the limiting distributions of the M-tests ( Stock, 1999 cointegration, causality and forecasting;…

含结构突变的单位根检验：联合假设的设定AI 解读

Several tests based on a t-ratio have been proposed in the literature to decide the order of integration of a time series allowing for a structural break. However, another approach based on testing a joint hypothesis of unit root and the irrelevance of some nuisance parameters is also feasible. This paper proposes new unit root tests consistent with the presence of a structural break applying this second perspective. Our approach deals both with the case where the break is…

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基于奇异值分解的广义降秩检验AI 解读

We propose a novel statistic to test the rank of a matrix. The rank statistic overcomes deficiencies of existing rank statistics, like: necessity of a Kronecker covariance matrix for the canonical correlation rank statistic of Anderson (1951), sensitivity to the ordering of the variables for the LDU rank statistic of Cragg and Donald (1996) and Gill and Lewbel (1992), a limiting distribution that is not a standard chi-squared distribution for the rank statistic of Robin and…

GARCH 模型的经验似然方法AI 解读

This paper develops an empirical likelihood approach for regular generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models and GARCH models with unit roots. For regular GARCH models, it is shown that the log empirical likelihood ratio statistic asymptotically follows a χ2 distribution. For GARCH models with unit roots, two versions of the empirical likelihood methods, the least squares score and the maximum likelihood score functions, are considered. For both…

关于另一类长期方差比单位根检验AI 解读

This paper investigates the effects of consistent and inconsistent long-run variance estimation on a test for a unit root, based on the generalization of the von Neumann ratio. The results from the Monte Carlo experiments suggest that the unit root tests based on an inconsistent estimator have less size distortion and more stability of size across different autocorrelation specifications as compared to the tests based on a consistent estimator. This improvement in size…

基于残差的随机协整检验AI 解读

We consider the problem of hypothesis testing in a modified version of the stochastic integration and cointegration framework of Harris, McCabe, and Leybourne (2002, Journal of Econometrics 111, 363–384). This nonlinear setup allows for volatility in excess of that catered for by the standard integration/cointegration paradigm through the introduction of nonstationary heteroskedasticity. We propose a test for stochastic cointegration against the alternative of no…