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一类简单的分布无关秩单位根检验AI 解读

We propose a class of distribution-free rank-based tests for the null hypothesis of a unit root. This class is indexed by the choice of a reference density g, which need not coincide with the unknown actual innovation density f. The validity of these tests, in terms of exact finite-sample size, is guaranteed, irrespective of the actual underlying density, by distribution-freeness. Those tests are locally and asymptotically optimal under a particular asymptotic scheme, for…

评《含稳定过程的矩阵随机积分弱收敛》AI 解读

In this comment we identify a lacuna in a proof in the paper by M. Caner published in 1997 in Econometric Theory concerning the weak limit behavior of various expressions involving heavy-tailed multivariate vectors and the convergence of stochastic integrals. In a later paper (Caner, 1998) the results for these limit relations are used to formulate tests for cointegration with infinite variance errors.

VAR 学习动态下前瞻模型的模拟检验AI 解读

In this paper we propose a simulation-based technique to investigate the finite sample performance of likelihood ratio (LR) tests for the nonlinear restrictions that arise when a class of forward-looking (FL) models typically used in monetary policy analysis is evaluated with vector autoregressive (VAR) models. We consider ‘one-shot’ tests to evaluate the FL model under the rational expectations hypothesis and sequences of tests obtained under the adaptive learning…

含分段线性趋势的I(2)协整模型AI 解读

This paper presents likelihood analysis of the I(2) cointegrated vector autoregression which allows for piecewise linear deterministic terms. Limiting behaviour of the maximum likelihood estimators are derived, which is used to further derive the limiting distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic for the cointegration ranks, extending Nielsen and Rahbek. The provided asymptotic theory extends also the results in Johansen et al. where asymptotic inference is discussed in…

对横截面依赖稳健的面板单位根区块自助检验AI 解读

In this paper we consider the issue of unit root testing in cross-sectionally dependent panels. We consider panels that may be characterized by various forms of cross-sectional dependence including (but not exclusive to) the popular common factor framework. We consider block bootstrap versions of the group-mean (Im et al., 2003) and the pooled (Levin et al., 2002) unit root coefficient DF tests for panel data, originally proposed for a setting of no cross-sectional…

TFT自助法：频域重抽样与时域时间序列复制AI 解读

A new time series bootstrap scheme, the time frequency toggle (TFT)-bootstrap, is proposed. Its basic idea is to bootstrap the Fourier coefficients of the observed time series, and then to back-transform them to obtain a bootstrap sample in the time domain. Related previous proposals, such as the “surrogate data” approach, resampled only the phase of the Fourier coefficients and thus had only limited validity. By contrast, we show that the appropriate resampling of phase and…

单位根回归中的函数形式误设AI 解读

We examine the limit properties of the nonlinear least squares (NLS) estimator under functional form misspecification in regression models with a unit root. Our theoretical framework is the same as that of Park and Phillips (2001, Econometrica 69, 117–161). We show that the limit behavior of the NLS estimator is largely determined by the relative orders of magnitude of the true and fitted models. If the estimated model is of different order of magnitude than the true model,…

非线性误差修正模型的估计AI 解读

Asymptotic theory for the estimation of nonlinear vector error correction models that exhibit regime-specific short-run dynamics is developed. In particular, regimes are determined by the error correction term, and the transition between regimes is allowed to be discontinuous, as in, e.g., threshold cointegration. Several nonregular problems are resolved. First of all, consistency—square root n consistency for the cointegrating vector β —is established for the least squares…

存量—流量 I(2)–I(1) 系统的机制转换：美国财政可持续性AI 解读

In the last two decades, fiscal sustainability has been tested through the use of non-stationary time series analysis. Two different approximations can be found in the literature: first, a univariate approach that has focused on the stochastic properties of the stock of debt and, second, a multivariate one that has focused on the long‐run properties of the flows of expenditures and revenues, i.e., in the stochastic properties of the deficit. In this paper we unify these…

弱分数协整的完全修正窄带最小二乘估计AI 解读

We consider estimation of the cointegrating relation in the weak fractional cointegration model, where the strength of the cointegrating relation (difference in memory parameters) is less than one‐half. A special case is the stationary fractional cointegration model, which has found important applications recently, especially in financial economics. Previous research on this model has considered a semi‐parametric narrow‐band least squares (NBLS) estimator in the frequency…

具有非平稳多因子误差结构的面板AI 解读

The presence of cross-sectionally correlated error terms invalidates much inferential theory of panel data models. Recently, work by Pesaran (2006) has suggested a method which makes use of cross-sectional averages to provide valid inference in the case of stationary panel regressions with a multifactor error structure. This paper extends this work and examines the important case where the unobservable common factors follow unit root processes. The extension to I(1)…

协整与长期资产配置AI 解读

We show that economic restrictions of cointegration between asset cash flows and aggregate consumption have important implications for return dynamics and optimal portfolio rules, particularly at long investment horizons. When cash flows and consumption share a common stochastic trend (i.e., are cointegrated), temporary deviations between their levels forecast long-horizon dividend growth rates and returns, and consequently, alter the term profile of risks and expected…

协整面板的参数可合并性新检验AI 解读

This paper proposes a new test of the null hypothesis that the parameters in a cointegrated panel data regression are equal across the cross-section. The asymptotic distribution of the new test statistic is derived and simulation results are provided to suggest that it performs very well in small samples. An empirical application to the monetary exchange rate model is also provided. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

弱收敛假设下的检验效率AI 解读

The asymptotic validity of tests is usually established by making appropriate primitive assumptions, which imply the weak convergence of a specific function of the data, and an appeal to the continuous mapping theorem. This paper, instead, takes the weak convergence of some function of the data to a limiting random element as the starting point and studies efficiency in the class of tests that remain asymptotically valid for all models that induce the same weak limit. It is…

条件异方差下的协整秩检验AI 解读

We analyze the properties of the conventional Gaussian-based cointegrating rank tests of Johansen (1996, Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models) in the case where the vector of series under test is driven by globally stationary, conditionally heteroskedastic (martingale difference) innovations. We first demonstrate that the limiting null distributions of the rank statistics coincide with those derived by previous authors who assume either…

无限方差创新下空间单向自回归模型的 M 估计AI 解读

We study the limiting behavior of the M -estimators of parameters for a spatial unilateral autoregressive model with independent and identically distributed innovations in the domain of attraction of a stable law with index α ∈ (0, 2]. Both stationary and unit root models and some extensions are considered. It is also shown that self-normalized M -estimators are asymptotically normal. A numerical example and a simulation study are also given.

衔接局部与适度偏离单位根的极限理论AI 解读

A limit theory is established for autoregressive time series that smooths the transition between local and moderate deviations from unity and provides a transitional form that links conventional unit root distributions and the standard normal. Edgeworth expansions of the limit theory are given. These expansions show that the limit theory that holds for values of the autoregressive coefficient that are closer to stationarity than local (i.e. deviations of the form , where n…

I(1) 数据的自助法AI 解读

A functional law is given for an I(1) sample data version of the continuous-path block bootstrap of Paparoditis and Politis (2001a). The results provide an alternative demonstration that continuous-path block bootstrap unit root tests are consistent under the null.

协整向量自回归模型中的若干识别问题AI 解读

The paper analyses some identification problems in the cointegrated vector autoregressive model. A criteria for identification by linear restrictions on individual relations is given. The asymptotic distribution of the estimators of [alpha] and [beta] is derived when they are identified by linear restrictions on [beta], and when they are identified by linear restrictions on [alpha]. It it shown that, in the latter case, a component of is asymptotically Gaussian. Finally we…

协整回归模型中的多重结构变化检验AI 解读

We consider testing for multiple structural changes in cointegrated systems and derive the limiting distribution of the sup-Wald test under mild conditions on the errors and regressors for a variety of testing problems. We show that even if the coefficients of the integrated regressors are held fixed but the intercept is allowed to change, the limit distributions are not the same as would prevail in a stationary framework. We also propose a sequential procedure that permits…

产生协整关系的交易层面纯跳跃价格模型AI 解读

We propose a new transaction-level bivariate log-price model that yields fractional or standard cointegration. The model provides a link between market microstructure and lower-frequency observations. The two ingredients of our model are a long-memory stochastic duration process for the waiting times, {τk}, between trades and a pair of stationary noise processes, ({ek} and {ηk}), which determine the jump sizes in the pure-jump log-price process. Our model includes feedback…

多重协整的混合正态推断AI 解读

Asymptotic likelihood analysis of cointegration in I (2) models (see Johansen, 1997, 2006; Boswijk, 2000; Paruolo, 2000) has shown that inference on most parameters is mixed normal, implying hypothesis test statistics with an asymptotic χ 2 null distribution. The asymptotic distribution of the multicointegration parameter estimator so far has been characterized by a Brownian motion functional, which has been conjectured to have a mixed normal distribution, based on…

季节协整过程的完全修正估计AI 解读

We extend the framework of the fully modified, ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator introduced by Phillips and Hansen (1990) to the case of seasonally cointegrated processes at a given frequency. First we extend a weak convergence result of sample covariance matrices (Phillips, 1988) to the case of seasonal unit roots. Using a complex number framework, we then show that we can take into account the constraints that exist in a situation of seasonal cointegration as…

时变协整AI 解读

In this paper we propose a time-varying vector error correction model in which the cointegrating relationship varies smoothly over time. The Johansen setup is a special case of our model. A likelihood ratio test for time-invariant cointegration is defined and its asymptotic chi-square distribution is derived. We apply our test to the purchasing power parity hypothesis of international prices and nominal exchange rates, and we find evidence of time-varying cointegration.