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存在机制转换的协整模型中基于残差的检验AI 解读

In this paper we examine tests for cointegration which allow for the possibility of regime shifts. We propose ADF-, Zα-, and Zt-type tests designed to test the null of no cointegration against the alternative of cointegration in the presence of a possible regime shift. In particular we consider cases where the intercept and/or slope coefficients have a single break of unknown timing. A formal proof is provided for the limiting distributions of the various tests for the…

周期成分动态线性模型的贝叶斯推断AI 解读

Dynamic linear models (DLM's) with time-varying cyclical components are developed for the analysis of time series with persistent though time-varying cyclical behavior. The development covers inference on wavelengths of possibly several persistent cycles in nonstationary time series, permitting explicit time variation in amplitudes and phases of component waveforms, decomposition of stochastic inputs into purely observational noise and innovations that impact on the waveform…

周期成分动态线性模型中的贝叶斯推断AI 解读

Dynamic linear models (DLM's) with time-varying cyclical components are developed for the analysis of time series with persistent though time-varying cyclical behavior. The development covers inference on wavelengths of possibly several persistent cycles in nonstationary time series, permitting explicit time variation in amplitudes and phases of component waveforms, decomposition of stochastic inputs into purely observational noise and innovations that impact on the waveform…

质量控制与动力系统中的序贯变点检测AI 解读

SUMMARY After a brief survey of a large variety of sequential detection procedures that are widely scattered in statistical references on quality control and engineering references on fault detection and signal processing, we study some open problems concerning these procedures and introduce a unified theory of sequential changepoint detection. This theory leads to a class of sequential detection rules which are not too demanding in computational and memory requirements for…

二次ARCH模型AI 解读

We introduce a new model for time-varying conditional variances as the most general quadratic version possible within the ARCH class. Hence, it encompasses all the existing restricted quadratic variance functions. Its properties are very similar to those of GARCH models, but avoids some of their criticisms. In univariate applications to daily U.S. and monthly U.K. stock market returns, QARCH adequately represents volatility and risk premia. QARCH is easy to incorporate in…

We consider independent random elements $X_1, \ldots, X_n, n \in \mathbb{N}$, with values in a measurable space $(\mathscr{X}, \mathscr{B})$ so that $X_1, \ldots, X_{\lbrack n\theta\rbrack}$ have a common distribution $\nu_1$ and the remaining $X_{\lbrack n\theta\rbrack + 1}, \ldots, X_n$ have a common distribution $\nu_2 \neq \nu_1$, for some $\theta \in (0, 1)$. The change point $\theta$ as well as the distributions are unknown. A family of tests is introduced for the…

随机游走、趋势函数断点与货币流通速度的混沌结构AI 解读

This paper examines the times-series properties of U.S. velocity series, using E. Zivot and D. W. K. Andrews's (1992) variation of P. Perron's (1989) test. It also tests for deterministic noisy chaos using the Nychka, Ellner, Gallant, and McCaffrey (1992) nonparametric test for positivity of the maximum Lyapunov exponent. Comparisons are made among simple sum and Divisia aggregates using the Thornton and Yue (1992) series of Divisia monetary aggregates for an extended sample…

通过马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛方法进行贝叶斯模型选择AI 解读

SUMMARY Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) integration methods enable the fitting of models of virtually unlimited complexity, and as such have revolutionized the practice of Bayesian data analysis. However, comparison across models may not proceed in a completely analogous fashion, owing to violations of the conditions sufficient to ensure convergence of the Markov chain. In this paper we present a framework for Bayesian model choice, along with an MCMC algorithm that does not…

生殖与发育实验中联合暴露数据的阈值模型AI 解读

In risk assessment, thresholds are generally believed to exist for toxic reproductive and developmental agents. Therefore, dose combinations exist below the threshold where the response is not distinguishable from background and above the threshold where a dose-response trend results. Because data from combination experiments are more reflective of human exposure to environmental agents, threshold models that incorporate the effect of interactions among these agents are…

针对随机序增大备择的稳健序贯监测方案AI 解读

We sequentially observe independent observations $X_1, X_2,\ldots$ such that initially they have distribution $G_0$; at some unknown time $\nu$ they become stochastically larger, having distribution $G_1$. Neither $G_0$ nor $G_1$ is fully specified. We wish to detect that a change has taken place as soon as possible after its occurrence, subject to a constraint on the rate of false alarms. We derive a family of nonparametric sequential procedures based on ranks, with…

摘要暂缺

伪结构突变AI 解读

A quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the break date is analyzed. Consistency of the estimator is demonstrated under very general conditions, provided that the data-generating process is not integrated. However, the asymptotic distribution of the estimator is quite different for time series that are integrated of order one. In that case, when there is no break, the analyst can be spuriously led to the estimation of a break near the middle of the time series.

参数稳定性的移动估计检验AI 解读

In this paper a new class of tests for parameter stability, the moving-estimates (ME) test, is proposed. It is shown that in the standard situation the ME test asymptotically equivalent to the maximal likelihood ratio test under the alternative of a temporary parameter shift. It is also shown that the asymptotic null distribution of the ME test is determined by the increments of a vector Brownian bridge and that under a broad class of alternatives the ME test is consistent…

结构稳定性的非参数条件矩检验AI 解读

This paper considers a nonparametric conditional moment test of stability of an econometric model against the alternative of instability. The alternative hypothesis allows for more than one structural change, although in this case it has to be fairly smooth. This complements existing results for stability in a parametric setting. Also, it is shown that the test is always consistent, unlike the available “parametric” tests, which normally rely on the assumption of a correct…

投影部分似然及其在纵向数据中的应用AI 解读

An estimating equation, which we call the projected partial score, is introduced for longitudinal data analysis. The estimating equation is obtained by projecting the partial likelihood score function onto the vector space spanned by a class of ‘conditionally linear’ estimating equations. We demonstrate that removing certain terms from the projection of the full likelihood score does not alter important inferential properties of the estimating equation, and doing so is…

线性回归中突变的最小绝对偏差估计AI 解读

This paper develops the asymptotic theory for least absolute deviation estimation of a shift in linear regressions. Rates of convergence and asymptotic distributions for the estimated regression parameters and the estimated shift point are derived. The asymptotic theory is developed both for fixed magnitude of shift and for shift with magnitude converging to zero as the sample size increases. Asymptotic distributions are also obtained for trending regressors and for…

将定性调查回答转化为定量预期的方法：澳大利亚制造业应用AI 解读

Abstract This paper analyses and extends alternative procedures for converting qualitative expectations responses to quantitative expectations. A number of conversion procedures is investigated, including the probability model, the time‐varying parameter probability model, and the regression approach. The informational content of the survey expectations is compared with simple time series models. It is found that the expectations models are superior for many series, both in…

自回归模型参数与阶数变化的检验AI 解读

The problem of testing whether or not a change has occurred in the parameter values and order of an autoregressive model is considered. It is shown that if the white noise in the AR model is weakly stationary with finite fourth moments, then under the null hypothesis of no changepoint, the normalized Gaussian likelihood ratio test statistic converges in distribution to the Gumbel extreme value distribution. An asymptotically distribution-free procedure for testing a change…

变点检测策略误报运行长度的一则注记AI 解读

A new proof is given to a known result on the average run length to false alarm of the Shiryayev-Roberts change-point detection policy when the observations are nonlattice. Via the approach of this new proof, the average run length to false alarm can be calculated in the lattice case and for the mixed-type Shiryayev-Roberts scheme.

用广义似然比统计量序贯检测变点AI 解读

We study sequential detection of a change-point using the generalized likelihood ratio statistic. For the special case of detecting a change in a normal mean with known variance, we give approximations to the average run lengths and compare our procedure to standard CUSUM tests and combined CUSUM-Shewhart tests. Several examples indicating extensions to problems involving multiple parameters are discussed.

摘要暂缺

瑞典社会保险办事机构的劳动使用效率AI 解读

Abstract This paper considers the estimation of frontier production functions in panel data models. It proposes a multi‐stage method to obtain estimates of (1) the parameters of a flexible input requirement function and (2) technical inefficiency decomposed into time‐invariant (firm‐specific), time‐varying, and the residual components. The proposed method is used to analyse labour‐use efficiency of Swedish local social insurance offices on the basis of a large panel of…

时变贴现因子现值模型的协整检验AI 解读

Abstract The paper analyses the impact of persistence and volatility in the discount rate in present‐value models on cointegration tests in levels and in logarithms. In simulations we find that the probability of not rejecting the null of no cointegration depends on the persistence of the discount rate process and can be very high when the expected returns process is highly persistent. In contrast, the cointegration tests are very robust with respect to the level of…

可逆跳跃马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛计算与贝叶斯模型判定AI 解读

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian computation have until recently been restricted to problems where the joint distribution of all variables has a density with respect to some fixed standard underlying measure. They have therefore not been available for application to Bayesian model determination, where the dimensionality of the parameter vector is typically not fixed. This paper proposes a new framework for the construction of reversible Markov chain samplers…