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时变系数已实现波动率模型的非参数估计与预测AI 解读

This article introduces a new specification for the heterogenous autoregressive (HAR) model for the realized volatility of S&P 500 index returns. In this modeling framework, the coefficients of the HAR are allowed to be time-varying with unspecified functional forms. The local linear method with the cross-validation (CV) bandwidth selection is applied to estimate the time-varying coefficient HAR (TVC-HAR) model, and a bootstrap method is used to construct the point-wise…

经济环境不确定性下的组合密度即时预测AI 解读

We introduce a combined density nowcasting (CDN) approach to dynamic factor models (DFM) that in a coherent way accounts for time-varying uncertainty of several model and data features to provide more accurate and complete density nowcasts. The combination weights are latent random variables that depend on past nowcasting performance and other learning mechanisms. The combined density scheme is incorporated in a Bayesian sequential Monte Carlo method which rebalances the set…

用于汇率市场传染分析的贝叶斯马尔可夫切换相关性模型AI 解读

This article develops a new Markov-switching vector autoregressive (VAR) model with stochastic correlation for contagion analysis on financial markets. The correlation and the log-volatility dynamics are driven by two independent Markov chains, thus allowing for different effects such as volatility spill-overs and correlation shifts with various degrees of intensity. We outline a suitable Bayesian inference procedure based on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. We then…

基于稀疏投影的高维变点估计AI 解读

Summary Change points are a very common feature of ‘big data’ that arrive in the form of a data stream. We study high dimensional time series in which, at certain time points, the mean structure changes in a sparse subset of the co-ordinates. The challenge is to borrow strength across the co-ordinates to detect smaller changes than could be observed in any individual component series. We propose a two-stage procedure called inspect for estimation of the change points: first,…

通过网络连接产生的长记忆AI 解读

Many time series exhibit “long memory”: Their autocorrelation function decays slowly with lag. This behavior has traditionally been modeled via unit roots or fractional Brownian motion and explained via aggregation of heterogeneous processes, nonlinearity, learning dynamics, regime switching, or structural breaks. This paper identifies a different and complementary mechanism for long‐memory generation by showing that it can naturally arise when a large number of simple…

长期风险识别：贝叶斯混频方法AI 解读

We document that consumption growth rates are far from i.i.d. and have a highly persistent component. First, we estimate univariate and multivariate models of cash‐flow (consumption, output, dividends) growth that feature measurement errors, time‐varying volatilities, and mixed‐frequency observations. Monthly consumption data are important for identifying the stochastic volatility process; yet the data are contaminated, which makes the inclusion of measurement errors…

利用矩条件进行状态空间模型的贝叶斯估计AI 解读

We consider Bayesian estimation of state space models when the measurement density is not available but estimating equations for the parameters of the measurement density are available from moment conditions. The most common applications are partial equilibrium models involving moment conditions that depend on dynamic latent variables (e.g., time–varying parameters, stochastic volatility) and dynamic general equilibrium models when moment equations from the first order…

长期利率风险评估的情景生成AI 解读

We propose a statistical model of the term structure of U.S. treasury yields tailored for long-term probability-based scenario generation and forecasts. Our model is easy to estimate and is able to simultaneously reproduce the positivity, persistence, and factor structure of the yield curve. Moreover, we incorporate heteroskedasticity and time-varying correlations across yields, both prevalent features of the data. The model also features a regime-switching short-rate model.…

非交换潜变量模型的非参数估计AI 解读

We propose a two-step method to nonparametrically estimate multivariate models in which the observed outcomes are independent conditional on a discrete latent variable. Applications include microeconometric models with unobserved types of agents, regime-switching models, and models with misclassification error. In the first step, we estimate weights that transform moments of the marginal distribution of the data into moments of the conditional distribution of the data for…

Kendall 秩相关系数变化检验AI 解读

For a bivariate time series (( X i , Y i )) i =1,..., n , we want to detect whether the correlation between X i and Y i stays constant for all i = 1,... n . We propose a nonparametric change-point test statistic based on Kendall’s tau. The asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis of no change follows from a new U -statistic invariance principle for dependent processes. Assuming a single change-point, we show that the location of the change-point is consistently…

局部平稳时间序列的分位数谱分析AI 解读

Summary Classical spectral methods are subject to two fundamental limitations: they can account only for covariance-related serial dependences, and they require second-order stationarity. Much attention has been devoted lately to quantile-based spectral methods that go beyond covariance-based serial dependence features. At the same time, covariance-based methods relaxing stationarity into much weaker local stationarity conditions have been developed for a variety of time…

时变 ARCH 模型中的参数稳定性与半参数推断AI 解读

Summary We develop a complete methodology for detecting time varying or non-time-varying parameters in auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) processes. For this, we estimate and test various semiparametric versions of time varying ARCH models which include two well-known non-stationary ARCH-type models introduced in the econometrics literature. Using kernel estimation, we show that non-time-varying parameters can be estimated at the usual parametric rate of…

时变系数贝叶斯VARMA模型的高效估计AI 解读

Summary Empirical work in macroeconometrics has been mostly restricted to using vector autoregressions (VARs), even though there are strong theoretical reasons to consider general vector autoregressive moving averages (VARMAs). A number of articles in the last two decades have conjectured that this is because estimation of VARMAs is perceived to be challenging and proposed various ways to simplify it. Nevertheless, VARMAs continue to be largely dominated by VARs,…

同时含时变与时间不变解释变量的若干非线性面板模型估计AI 解读

The so-called “fixed effects” approach to the estimation of panel data models suffers from the limitation that it is not possible to estimate the coefficients on explanatory variables that are time-invariant. This is in contrast to a “random effects” approach, which achieves this by making much stronger assumptions on the relationship between the explanatory variables and the individual-specific effect. In a linear model, it is possible to obtain the best of both worlds by…

对低频污染稳健的参数估计AI 解读

We provide methods to robustly estimate the parameters of stationary ergodic short-memory time series models in the potential presence of additive low-frequency contamination. The types of contamination covered include level shifts (changes in mean) and monotone or smooth time trends, both of which have been shown to bias parameter estimates toward regions of persistence in a variety of contexts. The estimators presented here minimize trimmed frequency domain quasi-maximum…

局部分块分位数回归AI 解读

In this paper, we consider the nonparametric estimation of a broad class of quantile regression models, in which the partially linear, additive, and varying coefficient models are nested. We propose for the model a two-stage kernel-weighted least squares estimator by generalizing the idea of local partitioned mean regression (Christopeit and Hoderlein, 2006, Econometrica 74, 787–817) to a quantile regression framework. The proposed estimator is shown to have desirable…

高维马尔可夫随机场模型的变点估计AI 解读

Summary The paper investigates a change point estimation problem in the context of high dimensional Markov random-field models. Change points represent a key feature in many dynamically evolving network structures. The change point estimate is obtained by maximizing a profile penalized pseudolikelihood function under a sparsity assumption. We also derive a tight bound for the estimate, up to a logarithmic factor, even in settings where the number of possible edges in the…

异质变点推断AI 解读

Summary We propose, a heterogeneous simultaneous multiscale change point estimator called ‘H-SMUCE’ for the detection of multiple change points of the signal in a heterogeneous Gaussian regression model. A piecewise constant function is estimated by minimizing the number of change points over the acceptance region of a multiscale test which locally adapts to changes in the variance. The multiscale test is a combination of local likelihood ratio tests which are properly…

识别高频数据中非平稳微观结构噪声与时变流动性的无模型方法AI 解读

In this paper, we provide non-parametric statistical tools to test stationarity of microstructure noise in general hidden Itô semimartingales, and discuss how to measure liquidity risk using high-frequency financial data. In particular, we investigate the impact of non-stationary microstructure noise on some volatility estimators, and design three complementary tests by exploiting edge effects, information aggregation of local estimates and high-frequency asymptotic…

具有自回归与异方差扰动的动态空间自回归模型AI 解读

Summary We propose a new class of models specifically tailored for spatiotemporal data analysis. To this end, we generalize the spatial autoregressive model with autoregressive and heteroskedastic disturbances, that is, SARAR(1, 1), by exploiting the recent advancements in score‐driven (SD) models typically used in time series econometrics. In particular, we allow for time‐varying spatial autoregressive coefficients as well as time‐varying regressor coefficients and…

波动率的非参数变点分析AI 解读

In this work, we develop change-point methods for statistics of high-frequency data. The main interest is in the volatility of an Itô semimartingale, the latter being discretely observed over a fixed time horizon. We construct a minimax-optimal test to discriminate continuous paths from paths with volatility jumps, and it is shown that the test can be embedded into a more general theory to infer the smoothness of volatilities. In a high-frequency setting, we prove weak…

贝叶斯变点检测的最优性AI 解读

By introducing suitable loss random variables of detection, we obtain optimal tests in terms of the stopping time or alarm time for Bayesian change-point detection not only for a general prior distribution of change-points but also for observations being a Markov process. Moreover, the optimal (minimal) average detection delay is proved to be equal to $1$ for any (possibly large) average run length to false alarm if the number of possible change-points is finite.

市场微观结构噪声下预平均已实现波动率的自助推断AI 解读

The main contribution of this paper is to propose a bootstrap method for inference on integrated volatility based on the pre-averaging approach, where the pre-averaging is done over all possible overlapping blocks of consecutive observations. The overlapping nature of the pre-averaged returns implies that the leading martingale part in the pre-averaged returns are k n -dependent with k n growing slowly with the sample size n . This motivates the application of a blockwise…

β 混合随机变量尾指数的变点检验AI 解读

The tail index as a measure of tail thickness provides information that is not captured by standard volatility measures. It may however change over time. Currently available procedures for detecting those changes for dependent data (e.g., Quintos et al ., 2001) are all based on comparing Hill (1975) estimates from different subsamples. We derive tests for a wide class of other tail index estimators. The limiting distribution of the test statistics is shown not to depend on…