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有意偏置的 Bootstrap 方法AI 解读

Summary A class of weighted bootstrap techniques, called biased bootstrap or b-bootstrap methods, is introduced. It is motivated by the need to adjust empirical methods, such as the ‘uniform’ bootstrap, in a surgical way to alter some of their features while leaving others unchanged. Depending on the nature of the adjustment, the b-bootstrap can be used to reduce bias, or to reduce variance or to render some characteristic equal to a predetermined quantity. Examples of the…

通过核回归理解指数平滑AI 解读

Summary Exponential smoothing is the most common model-free means of forecasting a future realization of a time series. It requires the specification of a smoothing factor which is usually chosen from the data to minimize the average squared residual of previous one-step-ahead forecasts. In this paper we show that exponential smoothing can be put into a nonparametric regression framework and gain some interesting insights into its performance through this interpretation. We…

基于核乘积估计量的分类AI 解读

Multivariate kernel density estimation is often used as the basis for a nonparametric classification technique. However, the multivariate kernel classifier suffers from the curse of dimensionality, requiring inordinately large sample sizes to achieve a reasonable degree of accuracy in high dimensional settings. A variance stabilising approach to kernel classification can be motivated through an alternative interpretation of linear and quadratic discriminant analysis in which…

分布函数平滑的带宽选择AI 解读

Several approaches can be made to the choice of bandwidth in the kernel smoothing of distribution functions. Recent proposals by Sarda (1993) and by Altman & Leger (1995) are analogues of the ‘leave-one-out’ and ‘plug-in’ methods which have been widely used in density estimation. In contrast, a method of crossvalidation appropriate to the smoothing of distribution functions is proposed. Selection of the bandwidth parameter is based on unbiased estimation of a mean integrated…

Wicksell 问题中的渐近有效估计AI 解读

We consider the classical Wicksell problem of estimating an unknown distribution function $G$of the radii of balls, based on their observed crosssections. It is assumed that the underlying distribution function$G$ belongs to a Hölder class of smoothness $\gamma >1/2$. We prove that, for a suitable choice of the smoothing parameters, kernel-type estimators are asymptotically efficient for a large class of symmetric bowl-shaped loss functions.

规则网格数据下光滑曲线近似的全局表现AI 解读

Approximating boundaries using data recorded on a regular grid induces discrete rounding errors in both vertical and horizontal directions. In cases where grid points exhibit at least some degree of randomness, an extensive theory has been developed for local-polynomial boundary estimators. It is inapplicable to regular grids, however. In this paper we impose strict regularity of the grid and describe the performance of local linear estimators in this context. Unlike the…

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利用平滑 ROC 曲线概括和比较诊断系统AI 解读

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves are used for summarizing the performance of imperfect diagnostic systems, especially in biomedical research. These curves are also appropriate for summarizing the performance of a discriminant analysis but are under-utilized by statisticians. This article is illustrates the use of these curves for comparing competing diagnostic systems, develops new estimation methods based on kernel density estimation, and studies the…

正电子发射断层成像及广义反卷积模型的变异性评估AI 解读

The problem of variance assessment for positron emission tomography (PET) image reconstructions is considered in the context of generalized deconvolution. A refinement of an approximate technique proposed by Carson and colleagues is examined. Computational implications of representing the reconstruction kernel in terms of a weighted sum of Gaussian densities are developed. Bias and variance characteristics of the resulting variance estimators are examined by numerical…

连接函数与方差函数未知时的拟似然回归AI 解读

We consider the multiple regression model E(y) = μ, μ = g(x T β), var(y) — [sgrave]2(μ) with predictors x, link function g, and variance function [sgrave]2(·). The aim is to reduce the assumptions in a fully parametric generalized linear model or a quasi-likelihood model by allowing the link and the variance functions to be unknown but smooth. These functions are then estimated nonparametrically, and the estimates are substituted into the quasi-likelihood function. We…

链接函数与方差函数未知的拟似然回归AI 解读

We consider the multiple regression model E(y) = μ, μ = g(x T β), var(y) — [sgrave]2(μ) with predictors x, link function g, and variance function [sgrave]2(·). The aim is to reduce the assumptions in a fully parametric generalized linear model or a quasi-likelihood model by allowing the link and the variance functions to be unknown but smooth. These functions are then estimated nonparametrically, and the estimates are substituted into the quasi-likelihood function. We…

正电子发射断层成像及广义反卷积模型的变异评估AI 解读

The problem of variance assessment for positron emission tomography (PET) image reconstructions is considered in the context of generalized deconvolution. A refinement of an approximate technique proposed by Carson and colleagues is examined. Computational implications of representing the reconstruction kernel in terms of a weighted sum of Gaussian densities are developed. Bias and variance characteristics of the resulting variance estimators are examined by numerical…

非参数回归中的偏差校正置信带AI 解读

Summary Bias-corrected confidence bands for general nonparametric regression models are considered. We use local polynomial fitting to construct the confidence bands and combine the cross-validation method and the plug-in method to select the bandwidths. Related asymptotic results are obtained. Our simulations show that confidence bands constructed by local polynomial fitting have much better coverage than those constructed by using the Nadaraya–Watson estimator. The results…

随机曲线分布众数的非参数估计AI 解读

Summary Motivated by the need to develop meaningful empirical approximations to a ‘typical’ data value, we introduce methods for density and mode estimation when data are in the form of random curves. Our approach is based on finite dimensional approximations via generalized Fourier expansions on an empirically chosen basis. The mode estimation problem is reduced to a problem of kernel-type multivariate estimation from vector data and is solved using a new recursive…

用独立观测密度估计量强逼近弱依赖观测密度估计量AI 解读

We derive an approximation of a density estimator based on weakly dependent random vectors by a density estimator built from independent random vectors. We construct, on a sufficiently rich probability space, such a pairing of the random variables of both experiments that the set of observations $X_1,\ldots,X_n}$ from the time series model is nearly the same as the set of observations $Y_1,\ldots,Y_n}$ from the i.i.d. model. With a high probability, all sets of the form $({X_1,\ldots,X_n}\\Delta{Y_1,\ldots,Y_n})\bigcap([a_1,b_1]\times\ldots\times[a_d,b_d])$…

平滑样条 ANOVA 中的回拟合算法AI 解读

A computational scheme for fitting smoothing spline ANOVA models to large data sets with a (near) tensor product design is proposed. Such data sets are common in spatial-temporal analyses. The proposed scheme uses the backfitting algorithm to take advantage of the tensor product design to save both computational memory and time. Several ways to further speed up the backfitting algorithm, such as collapsing component functions and successive over-relaxation, are discussed. An…

回归样条的局部渐近性质与置信区域AI 解读

In this paper, we study the local behavior of regression splines. In particular, explicit expressions for the asymptotic pointwise bias and variance of regression splines are obtained. In addition, asymptotic normality for regression splines is established, leading to the construction of approximate confidence intervals and confidence bands for the regression function.

频域时间序列回归的高阶近似AI 解读

Second-order expansions and mean squared error approximations are given for efficient frequency domain regression estimators. While bandwidth choices do not figure in first order asymptotics for these estimators, they do influence second-order terms and it is shown how suitable choices will enhance second-order efficiency. Data-based bandwidth selection rules are given for practical implementation of these procedures. Two commonly used and asymptotically equivalent spectral…

基于固定平滑参数核密度估计量的拟合优度检验AI 解读

In this paper, we study the bias-corrected test developed in Fan (1994). It is based on the integrated squared difference between a kernel estimator of the unknown density function of a random vector and a kernel smoothed estimator of the parametric density function to be tested under the null hypothesis. We provide an alternative asymptotic approximation of the finite-sample distribution of this test by fixing the smoothing parameter. In contrast to the normal approximation…

用于非平稳性检验的零频自回归谱密度估计量AI 解读

Many unit root and cointegration tests require an estimate of the spectral density function at frequency zero of some process. Commonly used are kernel estimators based on weighted sums of autocovariances constructed using estimated residuals from an AR(1) regression. However, it is known that with substantially correlated errors, the OLS estimate of the AR(1) parameter is severely biased. In this paper, we first show that this least-squares bias induces a significant…

随机回归中条件方差函数的有效估计AI 解读

Conditional heteroscedasticity has often been used in modelling and understanding the variability of statistical data. Under a general set-up which includes nonlinear time series models as a special case, we propose an efficient and adaptive method for estimating the conditional variance. The basic idea is to apply a local linear regression to the squared residuals. We demonstrate that, without knowing the regression function, we can estimate the conditional variance…

事件历史分析的非参数乘法风险率模型AI 解读

A major issue in exploring and analyzing life history data with multiple states and events is the development and availability of flexible methods that allow simultaneous incorporation and estimation of baseline hazards, detection and modelling of nonlinear functional forms of covariates and time-varying effects, and the possibility to include time-dependent covariates. In this paper we consider a nonparametric multiplicative hazard model that takes into account these…

通过最小化密度幂散度实现稳健高效估计AI 解读

A minimum divergence estimation method is developed for robust parameter estimation. The proposed approach uses new density-based divergences which, unlike existing methods of this type such as minimum Hellinger distance estimation, avoid the use of nonparametric density estimation and associated complications such as bandwidth selection. The proposed class of ‘density power divergences’ is indexed by a single parameter α which controls the trade-off between robustness and…

局部最大似然估计与推断AI 解读

Summary Local maximum likelihood estimation is a nonparametric counterpart of the widely used parametric maximum likelihood technique. It extends the scope of the parametric maximum likelihood method to a much wider class of parametric spaces. Associated with this nonparametric estimation scheme is the issue of bandwidth selection and bias and variance assessment. This paper provides a unified approach to selecting a bandwidth and constructing confidence intervals in local…