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时变 ARCH 模型中的归一化最小二乘估计AI 解读

We investigate the time-varying ARCH (tvARCH) process. It is shown that it can be used to describe the slow decay of the sample autocorrelations of the squared returns often observed in financial time series, which warrants the further study of parameter estimation methods for the model. Since the parameters are changing over time, a successful estimator needs to perform well for small samples. We propose a kernel normalized-least-squares (kernel-NLS) estimator which has a…

概率分布二次距离的统一基础AI 解读

This work builds a unified framework for the study of quadratic form distance measures as they are used in assessing the goodness of fit of models. Many important procedures have this structure, but the theory for these methods is dispersed and incomplete. Central to the statistical analysis of these distances is the spectral decomposition of the kernel that generates the distance. We show how this determines the limiting distribution of natural goodness-of-fit tests.…

In a large class of statistical inverse problems it is necessary to suppose that the transformation that is inverted is known. Although, in many applications, it is unrealistic to make this assumption, the problem is often insoluble without it. However, if additional data are available, then it is possible to estimate consistently the unknown error density. Data are seldom available directly on the transformation, but repeated, or replicated, measurements increasingly are…

平滑非参数条件分位数前沿估计AI 解读

Traditional estimators for nonparametric frontier models (DEA, FDH) are very sensitive to extreme values/outliers. Recently, Aragon et al. [2005. Nonparametric frontier estimation: a conditional quantile-based approach. Econometric Theory 21, 358-389] proposed a nonparametric [alpha]-frontier model and estimator based on a suitably defined conditional quantile which is more robust to extreme values/outliers. Their estimator is based on a nonsmooth empirical conditional…

利用 SIMEX 选择变量含误差问题中的平滑参数AI 解读

SIMEX methods are attractive for solving curve estimation problems in errors-in-variables regression, using parametric or semiparametric techniques. However, nonparametric approaches are generally of quite a different type, being based on, for example, kernels, local-linear modeling, ridging, orthogonal series, or splines. All of these techniques involve the challenging (and not well studied) issue of empirical smoothing parameter choice. We show that SIMEX can be used…

贝叶斯层级曲线配准AI 解读

Functional data often exhibit a common shape, but with variations in amplitude and phase across curves. The analysis often proceeds by synchronization of the data through curve registration. In this article we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for curve registration. Our hierarchical model provides a formal account of amplitude and phase variability while borrowing strength from the data across curves in the estimation of the model parameters. We discuss extensions of…

确定性动态模型中时变系数的高效局部估计及 HIV-1 应用AI 解读

Recently deterministic dynamic models have become very popular in biomedical research and other scientific areas; examples include modeling human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) dynamics, pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic analysis, tumor cell kinetics, and genetic network modeling. In this article we propose estimation methods for the time-varying coefficients in deterministic dynamic systems that are usually described by a set of differential equations. Three two-stage local…

惩罚样条的渐近性质AI 解读

We study the asymptotic behaviour of penalized spline estimators in the univariate case. We use B-splines and a penalty is placed on mth-order differences of the coefficients. The number of knots is assumed to converge to infinity as the sample size increases. We show that penalized splines behave similarly to Nadaraya--Watson kernel estimators with ‘equivalent’ kernels depending upon m. The equivalent kernels we obtain for penalized splines are the same as those found by…

核折棒过程AI 解读

We propose a class of kernel stick-breaking processes for uncountable collections of dependent random probability measures. The process is constructed by first introducing an infinite sequence of random locations. Independent random probability measures and beta-distributed random weights are assigned to each location. Predictor-dependent random probability measures are then constructed by mixing over the locations, with stick-breaking probabilities expressed as a kernel…

谱密度估计的同时置信带AI 解读

We propose a method for the construction of simultaneous confidence bands for a smoothed version of the spectral density of a Gaussian process based on nonparametric kernel estimators obtained by smoothing the periodogram. A studentized statistic is used to determine the width of the band at each frequency and a frequency-domain bootstrap approach is employed to estimate the distribution of the supremum of this statistic over all frequencies. We prove by means of strong…

利用惩罚样条回归进行非参数小区域估计AI 解读

Summary The paper proposes a small area estimation approach that combines small area random effects with a smooth, non-parametrically specified trend. By using penalized splines as the representation for the non-parametric trend, it is possible to express the non-parametric small area estimation problem as a mixed effect model regression. The resulting model is readily fitted by using existing model fitting approaches such as restricted maximum likelihood. We present…

高维模型选择：基于二次风险的方法AI 解读

Summary We propose a general class of risk measures which can be used for data-based evaluation of parametric models. The loss function is defined as the generalized quadratic distance between the true density and the model proposed. These distances are characterized by a simple quadratic form structure that is adaptable through the choice of a non-negative definite kernel and a bandwidth parameter. Using asymptotic results for the quadratic distances we build a…

Rodeo：稀疏、贪心的非参数回归AI 解读

We present a greedy method for simultaneously performing local bandwidth selection and variable selection in nonparametric regression. The method starts with a local linear estimator with large bandwidths, and incrementally decreases the bandwidth of variables for which the gradient of the estimator with respect to bandwidth is large. The method—called rodeo (regularization of derivative expectation operator)—conducts a sequence of hypothesis tests to threshold derivatives,…

具有长记忆设计与误差的异方差回归模型渐近推断AI 解读

This paper discusses asymptotic distributions of various estimators of the underlying parameters in some regression models with long memory (LM) Gaussian design and nonparametric heteroscedastic LM moving average errors. In the simple linear regression model, the first-order asymptotic distribution of the least square estimator of the slope parameter is observed to be degenerate. However, in the second order, this estimator is n1/2-consistent and asymptotically normal for…

广义加性模型中的平滑回拟合AI 解读

Generalized additive models have been popular among statisticians and data analysts in multivariate nonparametric regression with non-Gaussian responses including binary and count data. In this paper, a new likelihood approach for fitting generalized additive models is proposed. It aims to maximize a smoothed likelihood. The additive functions are estimated by solving a system of nonlinear integral equations. An iterative algorithm based on smooth backfitting is developed…

扩散过程模型设定检验AI 解读

We propose a test for model specification of a parametric diffusion process based on a kernel estimation of the transitional density of the process. The empirical likelihood is used to formulate a statistic, for each kernel smoothing bandwidth, which is effectively a Studentized L2-distance between the kernel transitional density estimator and the parametric transitional density implied by the parametric process. To reduce the sensitivity of the test on smoothing bandwidth…

利用局部核估计方程分析相关失效时间数据的非参数回归AI 解读

We study nonparametric regression for correlated failure time data. Kernel estimating equations are used to estimate nonparametric covariate effects. Independent and weighted-kernel estimating equations are studied. The derivative of the nonparametric function is first estimated and the nonparametric function is then estimated by integrating the derivative estimator. We show that the nonparametric kernel estimator is consistent for any arbitrary working correlation matrix…

异方差与自相关稳健检验中的最优带宽选择AI 解读

In time series regressions with nonparametrically autocorrelated errors, it is now standard empirical practice to use kernel-based robust standard errors that involve some smoothing function over the sample autocorrelations. The underlying smoothing parameter b, which can be defined as the ratio of the bandwidth (or truncation lag) to the sample size, is a tuning parameter that plays a key role in determining the asymptotic properties of the standard errors and associated…

非经典测量误差模型的工具变量处理AI 解读

While the literature on nonclassical measurement error traditionally relies on the availability of an auxiliary data set containing correctly measured observations, we establish that the availability of instruments enables the identification of a large class of nonclassical nonlinear errors-in-variables models with continuously distributed variables. Our main identifying assumption is that, conditional on the value of the true regressors, some “measure of location” of the…

非线性加性自回归模型的样条回拟合核平滑AI 解读

Application of nonparametric and semiparametric regression techniques to high-dimensional time series data has been hampered due to the lack of effective tools to address the “curse of dimensionality.” Under rather weak conditions, we propose spline-backfitted kernel estimators of the component functions for the nonlinear additive time series data that are both computationally expedient so they are usable for analyzing very high-dimensional time series, and theoretically…

未知连接函数的一般非参数回归模型的速率最优估计AI 解读

This paper discusses a nonparametric regression model that naturally generalizes neural network models. The model is based on a finite number of one-dimensional transformations and can be estimated with a one-dimensional rate of convergence. The model contains the generalized additive model with unknown link function as a special case. For this case, it is shown that the additive components and link function can be estimated with the optimal rate by a smoothing spline that…

神经脉冲序列概率模型的若干理论结果AI 解读

This article contains two main theoretical results on neural spike train models, using the counting or point process on the real line as a model for the spike train. The first part of this article considers template matching of multiple spike trains. P-values for the occurrences of a given template or pattern in a set of spike trains are computed using a general scoring system. By identifying the pattern with an experimental stimulus, multiple spike trains can be deciphered…

k 单调密度估计：极限分布理论与样条联系AI 解读

We study the asymptotic behavior of the Maximum Likelihood and Least Squares Estimators of a k-monotone density g0 at a fixed point x0 when k>2. We find that the jth derivative of the estimators at x0 converges at the rate n−(k−j)/(2k+1) for j=0, …, k−1. The limiting distribution depends on an almost surely uniquely defined stochastic process Hk that stays above (below) the k-fold integral of Brownian motion plus a deterministic drift when k is even (odd). Both the MLE and…

比较回归方法时交叉验证的一致性AI 解读

Theoretical developments on cross validation (CV) have mainly focused on selecting one among a list of finite-dimensional models (e.g., subset or order selection in linear regression) or selecting a smoothing parameter (e.g., bandwidth for kernel smoothing). However, little is known about consistency of cross validation when applied to compare between parametric and nonparametric methods or within nonparametric methods. We show that under some conditions, with an appropriate…