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矩条件模型的广义经验似然准则AI 解读

GEL methods that generalize and extend previous contributions are defined and analyzed for moment condition models specified in terms of weakly dependent data. These procedures offer alternative one-step estimators and tests that are asymptotically equivalent to their efficient two-step GMM counterparts. The basis for GEL estimation is via a smoothed version of the moment indicators using kernel function weights that incorporate a bandwidth parameter. Examples for the choice…

空间数据非参数回归的渐近理论AI 解读

Nonparametric regression with spatial, or spatio-temporal, data is considered. The conditional mean of a dependent variable, given explanatory ones, is a nonparametric function, while the conditional covariance reflects spatial correlation. Conditional heteroscedasticity is also allowed, as well as non-identically distributed observations. Instead of mixing conditions, a (possibly non-stationary) linear process is assumed for disturbances, allowing for long range, as well as…

带固定效应的非参数时变系数面板数据模型AI 解读

This paper is concerned with developing a non‐parametric time‐varying coefficient model with fixed effects to characterize non‐stationarity and trending phenomenon in a non‐linear panel data model. We develop two methods to estimate the trend function and the coefficient function without taking the first difference to eliminate the fixed effects. The first one eliminates the fixed effects by taking cross‐sectional averages, and then uses a non‐parametric local linear method…

非平稳半参数模型的数据驱动带宽选择AI 解读

This article extends the asymptotic results of the traditional least squares cross-validatory (CV) bandwidth selection method to semiparametric regression models with nonstationary data. Two main findings are that (a) the CV-selected bandwidth is stochastic even asymptotically and (b) the selected bandwidth based on the local constant method converges to 0 at a different speed than that based on the local linear method. Both findings are in sharp contrast to existing results…

波动率函数的倾斜非参数估计及实证应用AI 解读

This article proposes a novel positive nonparametric estimator of the conditional variance function without reliance on logarithmic or other transformations. The estimator is based on an empirical likelihood modification of conventional local-level nonparametric regression applied to squared residuals of the mean regression. The estimator is shown to be asymptotically equivalent to the local linear estimator in the case of unbounded support but, unlike that estimator, is…

未知时点趋势变动检验：OLS 稳健检验的固定 b 分析AI 解读

This paper analyzes tests for a shift in the trend function of a time series at an unknown date based on ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates of the trend function. Inference about the trend parameters depends on the serial correlation structure of the data through the long-run variance (zero frequency spectral density) of the errors. Asymptotically pivotal tests can be obtained by the use of serial correlation robust standard errors that require an estimate of the…

函数型混合效应谱分析AI 解读

In many experiments, time series data can be collected from multiple units and multiple time series segments can be collected from the same unit. This article introduces a mixed effects Cramér spectral representation which can be used to model the effects of design covariates on the second-order power spectrum while accounting for potential correlations among the time series segments collected from the same unit. The transfer function is composed of a deterministic component…

局部平稳过程的平稳性度量及检验应用AI 解读

In this article we investigate the problem of measuring deviations from stationarity in locally stationary time series. Our approach is based on a direct estimate of the L2-distance between the spectral density of the locally stationary process and its best approximation by a spectral density of a stationary process. An explicit expression of the minimal distance is derived, which depends only on integrals of the spectral density of the locally stationary process and its…

总体归属不确定时多个总体的密度估计AI 解读

We devise methods to estimate probability density functions of several populations using observations with uncertain population membership, meaning from which population an observation comes is unknown. The probability of an observation being sampled from any given population can be calculated. We develop general estimation procedures and bandwidth selection methods for our setting. We establish large-sample properties and study finite-sample performance using simulation…

全基因组关联研究中的群体分层校正AI 解读

Genomewide association studies have become the primary tool for discovering the genetic basis of complex human diseases. Such studies are susceptible to the confounding effects of population stratification, in that the combination of allele-frequency heterogeneity with disease-risk heterogeneity among different ancestral subpopulations can induce spurious associations between genetic variants and disease. This article provides a statistically rigorous and computationally…

自回归筛自助法的有效范围AI 解读

We explore the limits of the autoregressive (AR) sieve bootstrap, and show that its applicability extends well beyond the realm of linear time series as has been previously thought. In particular, for appropriate statistics, the AR-sieve bootstrap is valid for stationary processes possessing a general Wold-type autoregressive representation with respect to a white noise; in essence, this includes all stationary, purely nondeterministic processes, whose spectral density is…

连续字典下的随机展开：Lévy 自适应回归核AI 解读

This article describes a new class of prior distributions for nonparametric function estimation. The unknown function is modeled as a limit of weighted sums of kernels or generator functions indexed by continuous parameters that control local and global features such as their translation, dilation, modulation and shape. Lévy random fields and their stochastic integrals are employed to induce prior distributions for the unknown functions or, equivalently, for the number of…

广义可加部分线性模型的估计与变量选择AI 解读

We study generalized additive partial linear models, proposing the use of polynomial spline smoothing for estimation of nonparametric functions, and deriving quasi-likelihood based estimators for the linear parameters. We establish asymptotic normality for the estimators of the parametric components. The procedure avoids solving large systems of equations as in kernel-based procedures and thus results in gains in computational simplicity. We further develop a class of…

区块自助法 HAC 稳健检验：朴素自助法的精细性质AI 解读

This paper studies the properties of naive block bootstrap tests that are scaled by zero frequency spectral density estimators (long-run variance estimators). The naive bootstrap is a bootstrap where the formula used in the bootstrap world to compute standard errors is the same as the formula used on the original data. Simulation evidence shows that the naive bootstrap can be much more accurate than the standard normal approximation. The larger the HAC bandwidth, the greater…

非线性时间序列回归中均值与方差结构的联合设定检验AI 解读

This paper proposes a nonparametric simultaneous test for parametric specification of the conditional mean and variance functions in a time series regression model. The test is based on an empirical likelihood (EL) statistic that measures the goodness of fit between the parametric estimates and the nonparametric kernel estimates of the mean and variance functions. A unique feature of the test is its ability to distribute natural weights automatically between the mean and the…

大样本协方差与谱密度矩阵的高阶精确正半定估计AI 解读

A new class of large-sample covariance and spectral density matrix estimators is proposed based on the notion of flat-top kernels. The new estimators are shown to be higher-order accurate when higher-order accuracy is possible. A discussion on kernel choice is presented as well as a supporting finite-sample simulation. The problem of spectral estimation under a potential lack of finite fourth moments is also addressed. The higher-order accuracy of flat-top kernel estimators…

加性部分非线性模型的最优设计AI 解读

We develop optimal design theory for additive partially nonlinear regression models, and show that D-optimal designs can be found as the products of the corresponding D-optimal designs in one dimension. For partially nonlinear models, D-optimal designs depend on the unknown nonlinear model parameters, and misspecifications of these parameters can lead to poor designs. Hence we generalise our results to parameter robust optimality criteria, namely Bayesian and standardised…

结合非参数协方差估计的纵向数据高效半参数回归AI 解读

For longitudinal data, when the within-subject covariance is misspecified, the semiparametric regression estimator may be inefficient. We propose a method that combines the efficient semiparametric estimator with nonparametric covariance estimation, and is robust against misspecification of covariance models. We show that kernel covariance estimation provides uniformly consistent estimators for the within-subject covariance matrices, and the semiparametric profile estimator…

密度估计的自洽方法AI 解读

Summary The estimation of a density profile from experimental data points is a challenging problem, which is usually tackled by plotting a histogram. Prior assumptions on the nature of the density, from its smoothness to the specification of its form, allow the design of more accurate estimation procedures, such as maximum likelihood. Our aim is to construct a procedure that makes no explicit assumptions, but still providing an accurate estimate of the density. We introduce…

单指标模型的估计函数方法（EFM）AI 解读

Single-index models are natural extensions of linear models and circumvent the so-called curse of dimensionality. They are becoming increasingly popular in many scientific fields including biostatistics, medicine, economics and financial econometrics. Estimating and testing the model index coefficients β is one of the most important objectives in the statistical analysis. However, the commonly used assumption on the index coefficients, ‖β‖ = 1, represents a nonregular…

核密度估计的带宽选择：Oracle 不等式与自适应极小极大最优性AI 解读

We address the problem of density estimation with "$\mathbb{L}_{s}$-loss by selection of kernel estimators. We develop a selection procedure and derive corresponding $\mathbb{L}_{s}$-risk oracle inequalities. It is shown that the proposed selection rule leads to the estimator being minimax adaptive over a scale of the anisotropic Nikol’skii classes. The main technical tools used in our derivations are uniform bounds on the $\mathbb{L}_{s}$-norms of empirical processes…

独立同分布假设的广义游程检验AI 解读

We provide a family of tests for the IID hypothesis based on generalized runs, powerful against unspecified alternatives, providing a useful complement to tests designed for specific alternatives, such as serial correlation, GARCH, or structural breaks. Our tests have appealing computational simplicity in that they do not require kernel density estimation, with the associated challenge of bandwidth selection. Simulations show levels close to nominal asymptotic levels. Our…

时间聚合下的分数阶单整估计AI 解读

A result characterizing the effect of temporal aggregation in the frequency domain is known for arbitrary stationary processes and generalized for difference-stationary processes here. Temporal aggregation includes cumulation of flow variables as well as systematic (or skip) sampling of stock variables. Next, the aggregation result is applied to fractionally integrated processes. In particular, it is investigated whether typical frequency domain assumptions made for…

隐马尔可夫模型的非参数模型检验及其金融计量应用AI 解读

We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of…