论文检索

贝叶斯经验似然的大样本依据AI 解读

This study investigates the asymptotic properties of the Bayesian empirical likelihood (BEL), which uses the empirical likelihood as an alternative to a parametric likelihood for Bayesian inference. We establish two asymptotic equivalence results based on the Bernstein–von Mises (BvM) theorem by introducing a new formulation of the moment restriction model. First, the limiting posterior distribution of the BEL is the same as that of a parametric Bayesian method that uses the…

含动态潜在因子的小维度 VAR 模型中的工具变量推断AI 解读

We study semiparametric inference in a small-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) model of order p augmented by unobservable common factors with a dynamic described by a VAR process of order q . This state-space specification is useful to measure separately the direct causality effects and the responses to dynamic common factors. We show that the state-space parameters are identifiable from the autocovariance function of the observed process. We estimate the model by…

马丁努森对《因果模型的参数化与模拟》的讨论AI 解读

I congratulate the authors on an interesting and useful contribution to the literature on causal inference. The authors propose a nice way of generating data so that a given causal structure of interest is preserved. This is a handy tool to have when for instance one needs to generate data to investigate small sample performance of a new inference procedure. I find it less attractive to use the suggested procedure for estimation purposes as is also alluded to in the paper…

通过迭代投影奇异值分解进行半参数张量因子分析AI 解读

Abstract This paper introduces a general framework of Semi-parametric TEnsor Factor Analysis (STEFA) that focuses on the methodology and theory of low-rank tensor decomposition with auxiliary covariates. Semi-parametric TEnsor Factor Analysis models extend tensor factor models by incorporating auxiliary covariates in the loading matrices. We propose an algorithm of iteratively projected singular value decomposition (IP-SVD) for the semi-parametric estimation. It iteratively…

HulC：利用凸包构造置信区域AI 解读

Abstract We develop and analyse the HulC, an intuitive and general method for constructing confidence sets using the convex hull of estimates constructed from subsets of the data. Unlike classical methods which are based on estimating the (limiting) distribution of an estimator, the HulC is often simpler to use and effectively bypasses this step. In comparison to the bootstrap, the HulC requires fewer regularity conditions and succeeds in many examples where the bootstrap…

包络中心子空间的半参数有效估计AI 解读

The estimation of the central space is at the core of the sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) literature. However, it is well known that the finite-sample estimation suffers from collinearity among predictors. Cook et al. (2013) proposed the predictor envelope method under linear models that can alleviate the problem by targeting a bigger space - which not only envelopes the central information, but also partitions the predictors by finding an uncorrelated set of material…

广义局部平均处理效应模型的有效稳健估计AI 解读

This article studies the estimation of causal parameters in the generalized local average treatment effect (GLATE) model, which expands upon the traditional LATE model to include multivalued treatments. We derive the efficient influence function (EIF) and the semiparametric efficiency bound (SPEB) for two types of causal parameters: the local average structural function (LASF) and the local average structural function for the treated (LASFT). The moment conditions generated…

极端事件建模：时变极端尾部形状AI 解读

We propose a dynamic semiparametric framework to study time variation in tail parameters.The framework builds on the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for modeling peaks over thresholds as in Extreme Value Theory, but casts the model in a conditional framework to allow for time-variation in the tail parameters.We establish parameter regions for stationarity and ergodicity and for the existence of (unconditional) moments and consider conditions for consistency and…

无排除限制的样本选择模型：参数异质性与部分识别AI 解读

This paper studies semiparametric versions of the classical sample selection model (Heckman, 1976, 1979) without exclusion restrictions. We extend the analysis in Honoré and Hu (2020) by allowing for parameter heterogeneity and derive implications of this model. We also consider models that allow for heteroskedasticity and briefly discuss other extensions. The key ideas are illustrated in a simple wage regression for females. We find that the derived implications of a…

半参数二元响应模型的分布式估计与推断AI 解读

The development of modern technology has enabled data collection of unprecedented size, which poses new challenges to many statistical estimation and inference problems. This paper studies the maximum score estimator of a semiparametric binary choice model under a distributed computing environment without prespecifying the noise distribution. An intuitive divide-and-conquer estimator is computationally expensive and restricted by a nonregular constraint on the number of…

协调 model-X 与双重稳健条件独立检验AI 解读

Model-X approaches to testing conditional independence between a predictor and an outcome variable given a vector of covariates usually assume exact knowledge of the conditional distribution of the predictor given the covariates. Nevertheless, model-X methodologies are often deployed with this conditional distribution learned in sample. We investigate the consequences of this choice through the lens of the distilled conditional randomization test (dCRT). We find that Type-I…

半参数最优协整检验AI 解读

This paper aims to address the issue of semiparametric efficiency for cointegration rank testing in finite-order vector autoregressive models, where the innovation distribution is considered an infinite-dimensional nuisance parameter. Our asymptotic analysis relies on Le Cam’s theory of limit experiment, which in this context is of the Locally Asymptotically Brownian Functional (LABF) type likelihood ratios. By exploiting the structural representation of LABF, an…

具有时变内生性的相关随机系数面板模型AI 解读

This paper studies a class of linear panel models with random coefficients. We do not restrict the joint distribution of the time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity and the covariates. We investigate identification of the average partial effect (APE) when fixed-effect techniques cannot be used to control for the correlation between the regressors and the time-varying disturbances. Relying on control variables, we develop a constructive two-step identification argument. The…

半参数模型两步 M 估计的平均估计量AI 解读

In a two-step extremum estimation (M-estimation) framework with a finite-dimensional parameter of interest and a potentially infinite-dimensional first-step nuisance parameter, this paper proposes an averaging estimator that combines a semiparametric estimator based on a nonparametric first step and a parametric estimator which imposes parametric restrictions on the first step. The averaging weight is an easy-to-compute sample analog of an infeasible optimal weight that…

灵活的面板随机生产前沿模型AI 解读

Summary We propose a flexible stochastic production frontier model with fixed effects for the panel data in which the semiparametric frontier is additive with bivariate interactions. To avoid potential misspecification and/or “wrong skew problem” due to distributional assumptions, we model the conditional mean of the inefficiency to depend on environmental variables and to be known up to a vector of parameters. We propose a difference‐based estimator for parameters…

双重稳健泛函的选择性机器学习AI 解读

Summary While model selection is a well-studied topic in parametric and nonparametric regression or density estimation, selection of possibly high-dimensional nuisance parameters in semiparametric problems is far less developed. In this paper, we propose a selective machine learning framework for making inferences about a finite-dimensional functional defined on a semiparametric model, when the latter admits a doubly robust estimating function and several candidate machine…

连续处理断点设计中的非线性与非可分结构函数AI 解读

Many empirical examples of regression discontinuity (RD) designs concern a continuous treatment variable, but the theoretical aspects of such models are less studied. This study examines the identification and estimation of the structural function in fuzzy RD designs with a continuous treatment variable. The structural function fully describes the causal impact of the treatment on the outcome. We show that the nonlinear and nonseparable structural function can be…

中间混杂下因果中介分析的信息传递干预AI 解读

Abstract Recent approaches to causal inference have focused on causal effects defined as contrasts between the distribution of counterfactual outcomes under hypothetical interventions on the nodes of a graphical model. In this article, we develop theory for causal effects defined with respect to a different type of intervention, one which alters the information propagated through the edges of the graph. These information transfer interventions may be more useful than node…

用半参数累积概率模型处理多重检测限AI 解读

Detection limits (DLs), where a variable cannot be measured outside of a certain range, are common in research. DLs may vary across study sites or over time. Most approaches to handling DLs in response variables implicitly make strong parametric assumptions on the distribution of data outside DLs. We propose a new approach to deal with multiple DLs based on a widely used ordinal regression model, the cumulative probability model (CPM). The CPM is a rank-based, semiparametric…

生存混合成员区块模型AI 解读

Whenever we send a message via a channel such as e-mail, Facebook, WhatsApp, WeChat, or LinkedIn, we care about the response rate—the probability that our message will receive a response—and the response time—how long it will take to receive a reply. Recent studies have made considerable efforts to model the sending behaviors of messages in social networks with point processes. However, statistical research on modeling response rates and response times on social networks is…

半参数近端因果推断AI 解读

Skepticism about the assumption of no unmeasured confounding, also known as exchangeability, is often warranted in making causal inferences from observational data; because exchangeability hinges on an investigator's ability to accurately measure covariates that capture all potential sources of confounding.In practice, the most one can hope for is that covariate measurements are at best proxies of the true underlying confounding mechanism operating in a given observational…

用于总体规模估计的双重稳健捕获—再捕获方法AI 解读

Estimation of population size using incomplete lists has a long history across many biological and social sciences. For example, human rights groups often construct partial lists of victims of armed conflicts, to estimate the total number of victims. Earlier statistical methods for this setup often use parametric assumptions, or rely on suboptimal plug-in-type nonparametric estimators; but both approaches can lead to substantial bias, the former via model misspecification…

利用 Copula 求解估计方程AI 解读

Thanks to their ability to capture complex dependence structures, copulas are frequently used to glue random variables into a joint model with arbitrary marginal distributions. More recently, they have been applied to solve statistical learning problems such as regression or classification. Framing such approaches as solutions of estimating equations, we generalize them in a unified framework. We can then obtain simultaneous, coherent inferences across multiple…

依赖删失下基于 Copula 的 Cox 比例风险模型AI 解读

Most existing copula models for dependent censoring in the literature assume that the parameter defining the copula is known. However, prior knowledge on this dependence parameter is often unavailable. In this article we propose a novel model under which the copula parameter does not need to be known. The model is based on a parametric copula model for the relation between the survival time (T) and the censoring time (C), whereas the marginal distributions of T and C follow…