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利用贝叶斯变量选择进行VAR预测AI 解读

SUMMARY This paper develops methods for automatic selection of variables in Bayesian vector autoregressions (VARs) using the Gibbs sampler. In particular, I provide computationally efficient algorithms for stochastic variable selection in generic linear and nonlinear models, as well as models of large dimensions. The performance of the proposed variable selection method is assessed in forecasting three major macroeconomic time series of the UK economy. Data‐based…

通过导数约束建模内生解释变量与异质性结构方程AI 解读

In this paper, I present a general modeling framework for nonparametric models with endogenous regressors and heterogeneity. I show that many existing models in the literature can be derived from a structural equation with unobserved heterogeneity by imposing constancy assumptions on the first and second derivatives. I consider a less restrictive model that imposes constancy assumptions on the second partial derivative of the structural equation. Assuming the existence of…

非参数回归中的空间自适应采样AI 解读

While adaptive sensing has provided improved rates of convergence in sparse regression and classification, results in nonparametric regression have so far been restricted to quite specific classes of functions. In this paper, we describe an adaptive-sensing algorithm which is applicable to general nonparametric-regression problems. The algorithm is spatially adaptive, and achieves improved rates of convergence over spatially inhomogeneous functions. Over standard function…

随机效应与固定效应面板模型中的神谕有效变量选择AI 解读

This paper generalizes the results for the Bridge estimator of Huang, Horowitz, and Ma (2008) to linear random and fixed effects panel data models which are allowed to grow in both dimensions. In particular, we show that the Bridge estimator isoracle efficient. It can correctly distinguish between relevant and irrelevant variables and the asymptotic distribution of the estimators of the coefficients of the relevant variables is the same as if only these had been included in…

带错误控制的变量选择：再论稳定性选择AI 解读

Summary Stability selection was recently introduced by Meinshausen and Bühlmann as a very general technique designed to improve the performance of a variable selection algorithm. It is based on aggregating the results of applying a selection procedure to subsamples of the data. We introduce a variant, called complementary pairs stability selection, and derive bounds both on the expected number of variables included by complementary pairs stability selection that have low…

向量误差修正模型中的随机搜索变量选择及英国宏观应用AI 解读

SUMMARY This paper develops methods for stochastic search variable selection (currently popular with regression and vector autoregressive models) for vector error correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner. We apply our methods to a large UK…

随机搜索变量选择中的有限总体估计量AI 解读

Monte Carlo algorithms are commonly used to identify a set of models for Bayesian model selection or model averaging. Because empirical frequencies of models are often zero or one in high-dimensional problems, posterior probabilities calculated from the observed marginal likelihoods, renormalized over the sampled models, are often employed. Such estimates are the only recourse in several newer stochastic search algorithms. In this paper, we prove that renormalization of…

尺度化稀疏线性回归AI 解读

Scaled sparse linear regression jointly estimates the regression coefficients and noise level in a linear model. It chooses an equilibrium with a sparse regression method by iteratively estimating the noise level via the mean residual square and scaling the penalty in proportion to the estimated noise level. The iterative algorithm costs little beyond the computation of a path or grid of the sparse regression estimator for penalty levels above a proper threshold. For the…

离散度算子与抗异常的二阶函数型数据分析AI 解读

Inferences related to the second-order properties of functional data, as expressed by covariance structure, can become unreliable when the data are non-Gaussian or contain unusual observations. In the functional setting, it is often difficult to identify atypical observations, as their distinguishing characteristics can be manifold but subtle. In this paper, we introduce the notion of a dispersion operator, investigate its use in probing the second-order structure of…

惩罚平衡抽样AI 解读

Linear mixed models cover a wide range of statistical methods, which have found many uses in the estimation for complex surveys. The purpose of this work is to consider methods by which linear mixed models may be used at the design stage of a survey to incorporate available auxiliary information. This paper reviews the ideas of balanced sampling and the cube algorithm, and proposes an implementation of the latter by which penalized balanced samples can be selected. Such…

块稀疏信号 ℓ₁ 恢复的精度保证AI 解读

We introduce a general framework to handle structured models (sparse and block-sparse with possibly overlapping blocks). We discuss new methods for their recovery from incomplete observation, corrupted with deterministic and stochastic noise, using block-$\ell_{1}$ regularization. While the current theory provides promising bounds for the recovery errors under a number of different, yet mostly hard to verify conditions, our emphasis is on verifiable conditions on the problem…

留受试者交叉验证的渐近最优性与高效计算AI 解读

Although the leave-subject-out cross-validation (CV) has been widely used in practice for tuning parameter selection for various nonparametric and semiparametric models of longitudinal data, its theoretical property is unknown and solving the associated optimization problem is computationally expensive, especially when there are multiple tuning parameters. In this paper, by focusing on the penalized spline method, we show that the leave-subject-out CV is optimal in the sense…

自适应函数型线性回归AI 解读

We consider the estimation of the slope function in functional linear regression, where scalar responses are modeled in dependence of random functions. Cardot and Johannes [J. Multivariate Anal. 101 (2010) 395–408] have shown that a thresholded projection estimator can attain up to a constant minimax-rates of convergence in a general framework which allows us to cover the prediction problem with respect to the mean squared prediction error as well as the estimation of the…

广义平滑有限混合模型AI 解读

We propose a general class of models and a unified Bayesian inference methodology for flexibly estimating the density of a response variable conditional on a possibly high-dimensional set of covariates. Our model is a finite mixture of component models with covariate-dependent mixing weights. The component densities can belong to any parametric family, with each model parameter being a deterministic function of covariates through a link function. Our MCMC methodology allows…

跨国增长回归中的变量选择与函数形式不确定性AI 解读

Regression analyses of cross-country economic growth data are complicated by two main forms of model uncertainty: the uncertainty in selecting explanatory variables and the uncertainty in specifying the functional form of the regression function. Most discussions in the literature address these problems independently, yet a joint treatment is essential. We present a new framework that makes such a joint treatment possible, using flexible nonlinear models specified by…

经济应用中用于贝叶斯模型平均的 g 先验混合AI 解读

We examine the issue of variable selection in linear regression modelling, where we have a potentially large amount of possible covariates and economic theory offers insufficient guidance on how to select the appropriate subset. In this context, Bayesian Model Averaging presents a formal Bayesian solution to dealing with model uncertainty. Our main interest here is the effect of the prior on the results, such as posterior inclusion probabilities of regressors and predictive…

具有线性计算成本的最优变点检测AI 解读

In this article, we consider the problem of detecting multiple changepoints in large datasets. Our focus is on applications where the number of changepoints will increase as we collect more data: for example, in genetics as we analyze larger regions of the genome, or in finance as we observe time series over longer periods. We consider the common approach of detecting changepoints through minimizing a cost function over possible numbers and locations of changepoints. This…

同时降维与变量选择的稀疏降秩回归AI 解读

The reduced-rank regression is an effective method in predicting multiple response variables from the same set of predictor variables. It reduces the number of model parameters and takes advantage of interrelations between the response variables and hence improves predictive accuracy. We propose to select relevant variables for reduced-rank regression by using a sparsity-inducing penalty. We apply a group-lasso type penalty that treats each row of the matrix of the…

大型协方差矩阵的正定 ℓ1 惩罚估计AI 解读

The thresholding covariance estimator has nice asymptotic properties for estimating sparse large covariance matrices, but it often has negative eigenvalues when used in real data analysis. To fix this drawback of thresholding estimation, we develop a positive-definite ℓ1-penalized covariance estimator for estimating sparse large covariance matrices. We derive an efficient alternating direction method to solve the challenging optimization problem and establish its convergence…

基于惩罚可信区域的一致高维贝叶斯变量选择AI 解读

For high-dimensional data, particularly when the number of predictors greatly exceeds the sample size, selection of relevant predictors for regression is a challenging problem. Methods such as sure screening, forward selection, or penalized regressions are commonly used. Bayesian variable selection methods place prior distributions on the parameters along with a prior over model space, or equivalently, a mixture prior on the parameters having mass at zero. Since exhaustive…

可加模型的直接同时推断及营养不足建模应用AI 解读

This article proposes a simple and fast approach to build simultaneous confidence bands and perform specification tests for smooth curves in additive models. The method allows for handling of spatially heterogeneous functions and its derivatives as well as heteroscedasticity in the data. It is applied to study the determinants of chronic undernutrition of Kenyan children, with a particular focus on the highly nonlinear age pattern in undernutrition. Model estimation using…

相关追踪：指数模型的前向逐步变量选择AI 解读

Summary A stepwise procedure, correlation pursuit (COP), is developed for variable selection under the sufficient dimension reduction framework, in which the response variable Y is influenced by the predictors X1,X2,…,Xp through an unknown function of a few linear combinations of them. Unlike linear stepwise regression, COP does not impose a special form of relationship (such as linear) between the response variable and the predictor variables. The COP procedure selects…

高维变量选择一致性的紧条件AI 解读

We address the issue of variable selection in the regression model with very high ambient dimension, that is, when the number of variables is very large. The main focus is on the situation where the number of relevant variables, called intrinsic dimension, is much smaller than the ambient dimension $d$. Without assuming any parametric form of the underlying regression function, we get tight conditions making it possible to consistently estimate the set of relevant variables.…

高维惩罚经验似然方法AI 解读

This paper formulates a penalized empirical likelihood (PEL) method for inference on the population mean when the dimension of the observations may grow faster than the sample size. Asymptotic distributions of the PEL ratio statistic is derived under different component-wise dependence structures of the observations, namely, (i) non-Ergodic, (ii) long-range dependence and (iii) short-range dependence. It follows that the limit distribution of the proposed PEL ratio statistic…