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分位数中的区制特定股票收益可预测性AI 解读

This article captures the underlying regime switching mechanism in the prediction of stock returns via a predictive quantile regression with multiple thresholds. The predictability of each predictor is allowed to switch from one regime to another according to the value of a threshold variable and could vary across quantiles, and the predictors could possess heterogeneous degrees of persistence. Statistical learning techniques, including a sequential estimation procedure, an…

动态空间自回归模型的推断与变点检测AI 解读

We analyze a varying-coefficient spatial autoregressive model with spatial fixed effects. One salient feature of the model is the incorporation of multiple spatial weight matrices through their linear combinations with varying coefficients, which help solve the problem of choosing the most “correct” one for applied econometricians who often face the availability of multiple expert spatial weight matrices. We estimate and make inferences on the model coefficients and…

交互固定效应面板中潜在组结构的收缩估计与识别AI 解读

This paper provides a framework for joint shrinkage estimation and identification of latent group structures in panel data models with interactive fixed effects and large number of explanatory variables. The latent structure of the model allows individuals to be classified into a number of groups where the number of groups and/or each individual’s group identity are unknown. A doubly penalized principal component estimation procedure using a pairwise fusion penalty and an…

将预测能力推断扩展至机器学习方法AI 解读

The use of machine learning methods for predictive purposes has exponentially increased over the past two decades, but uncertainty quantification for predictive comparisons remains challenging and underdeveloped. This article addresses this gap by extending the classic inference theory for predictive ability in time series to modern machine learners, such as Lasso or Deep Learning. We investigate under which conditions such extensions are possible. For standard out-of-sample…

通过选择后推断稳健发现微生物组成特征AI 解读

Identifying taxa associated with host phenotypes is crucial for understanding host-microbe interactions and their underlying molecular mechanisms. However, analyzing microbiome data presents unique challenges, as the observed abundances of taxa are high-dimensional, compositional, and subject to both sample-specific and taxon-specific biases. Many existing methods for differential abundance testing struggle to balance false discovery rate control with statistical power. In…

非参数二元选择模型的核化估计方法AI 解读

We propose a new estimator for nonparametric binary choice models that does not impose a parametric structure on either the systematic function of covariates or the distribution of the error term. A key advantage of our approach is its computational scalability in the number of covariates. For instance, even when assuming a normal error distribution as in probit models, commonly used sieves for approximating an unknown function of covariates can lead to a large-dimensional…

文本词项选择与分析：频率学派和贝叶斯策略及解释AI 解读

Economic analysis based on text data has expanded rapidly, yet the ultra-high dimensionality of text data presents substantial challenges for term selection and estimation. We propose the Information-Adaptive Lasso and Information-Adaptive Spike-and-Slab Lasso as novel frequentist and Bayesian approaches to address these challenges. A key theoretical contribution of this study is the establishment of the rate of convergence in term-selection consistency, which we show to be…

经济增长建模的贝叶斯方法：变量选择与截面依赖AI 解读

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework designed to address two critical econometric challenges in empirical growth studies: variable selection and cross-sectional dependence. We first propose a growth regression model that incorporates cross-sectional dependence through a multi-factor structure and accounts for variable selection with sparse coefficients. We then introduce a new Bayesian Adaptive LASSO estimator specifically designed for this model, capable of performing…

从树集成中提取可解释模型：计算与统计视角AI 解读

Tree ensembles are non-parametric methods widely recognized for their accuracy and ability to capture complex interactions. While these models excel at prediction, they are difficult to interpret and may fail to uncover useful relationships in the data. We propose an estimator to extract compact sets of decision rules from tree ensembles. The extracted models are accurate and can be manually examined to reveal relationships between the predictors and the response. A key…

存在隐藏混杂时过参数化模型的在线推断AI 解读

Abstract In this paper, we study online estimation and inference of regression coefficients in the presence of hidden confounders by leveraging over-parameterized models. Unlike existing offline approaches that rely on factor and sparse models, our closed-form estimator simultaneously removes hidden-confounder bias and is directly applicable to streaming data. Using tools from random matrix theory, we analyse phase transition phenomena in the variance of the coefficient…

高维极值图结构学习AI 解读

Extremal graphical models encode the conditional independence structure of multivariate extremes. Key statistics for learning extremal graphical structures are empirical extremal variograms, for which we prove non-asymptotic concentration bounds that hold under general domain of attraction conditions. For the popular class of Hüsler--Reiss models, we propose a majority voting algorithm for learning the underlying graph from data through $L^1$ regularized optimization. Our…

私有线性回归对噪声尾部的适应AI 解读

While the traditional goal of statistics is to infer population parameters, modern practice increasingly demands protection of individual privacy. One way to address this need is to adapt classical statistical procedures into privacy-preserving algorithms. In this article, we develop differentially private tail-robust methods for linear regression. The tradeoff among bias, privacy, and robustness is controlled by a tunable robustification parameter in the Huber loss. We…

主成分空间中的高维回归与维数增益：再考察AI 解读

Benefits of exploiting sparsity in the space of principal components have been well documented both empirically and theoretically (Lang and Zou; Silin and Fan). In this article, we further reveal another unexpected advantage of exploiting sparsity in the space of principal components when the data are contaminated by measurement errors. Assuming the coefficient vector resides in an lq ball (0≤q≤1), we show that an l1 penalized principal components regression has a prediction…

流式数据高维广义线性模型的自适应去偏 LassoAI 解读

Online statistical inference facilitates real-time analysis of sequentially collected data, making it different from traditional methods that rely on static datasets. This article introduces a novel approach to online inference in high-dimensional generalized linear models, where we update regression coefficient estimates and their standard errors upon each new data arrival. In contrast to existing methods that either require full dataset access or large-dimensional summary…

高维线性回归中的残差重要性加权迁移学习AI 解读

Transfer learning is an emerging paradigm for leveraging multiple sources to improve the statistical inference on a single target. In this paper, we propose a novel approach named residual importance weighted transfer learning (RIW-TL) for high-dimensional linear models built on penalized likelihood. Compared to existing methods such as Trans-Lasso that selects sources in an (approximately) all-in-or-all-out manner, RIW-TL includes samples via importance weighting and thus…

KL-BSS：重新审视结构方程模型邻域选择的最优性AI 解读

Abstract We introduce a new method for neighbourhood selection in linear structural equation models that improves over classical methods such as best subset selection (BSS) and the Lasso. Our method, called KL-BSS, takes advantage of the existence of underlying structure in SEM—even when this structure is unknown—and is easily implemented using existing solvers. Under weaker eigenvalue conditions compared to BSS and the Lasso, KL-BSS can provably recover the support of…

经验风险最小化中的梯度下降推断AI 解读

Gradient descent is one of the most widely used iterative algorithms in modern statistical learning. However, its precise algorithmic dynamics in high-dimensional settings remain only partially understood, which has limited its broader potential for statistical inference applications. This paper provides a precise, nonasymptotic joint distributional characterization of gradient descent iterates and their debiased statistics in a broad class of empirical risk minimization…

递归自适应分割估计的统计与计算权衡AI 解读

Models based on recursive adaptive partitioning such as decision trees and their ensembles are popular for high-dimensional regression as they can potentially avoid the curse of dimensionality. Because empirical risk minimization (ERM) is computationally infeasible, these models are typically trained using greedy algorithms. Although effective in many cases, these algorithms have been empirically observed to get stuck at local optima. We explore this phenomenon in the…

利用最优传输构建多属性数据的Copula图模型AI 解读

Abstract Motivated by modern data types such as images and multi-view data, the multi-attribute graphical model aims to uncover conditional independence structures among vector-valued nodes. Under the Gaussian assumption, such independence is encoded in blockwise zeros of the precision matrix. To relax the restrictive Gaussian assumption, we propose a semiparametric multi-attribute graphical model leveraging a newly introduced cyclically monotone copula. This copula treats…

双重 LASSO：复现与实践启示AI 解读

ABSTRACT The rise of machine learning (ML) is one of the most prominent developments in applied econometrics in the past decade. The focus of much economic analysis is causal, rather than prediction, and Belloni et al. (2014) demonstrate how ML methods can be used in causal inference. This paper undertakes a narrow and wide replication of the Monte Carlo and empirical examples presented by Belloni et al. (2014). We discuss practical implications of this replication for the…

强化学习变量选择的序贯 Knockoffs 方法AI 解读

In real-world applications of reinforcement learning, it is often challenging to obtain a state representation that is parsimonious and satisfies the Markov property without prior knowledge. Consequently, it is common practice to construct a state larger than necessary, e.g., by concatenating measurements over contiguous time points. However, needlessly increasing the dimension of the state may slow learning and obfuscate the learned policy. We introduce the notion of a…

面板回归模型的核范数正则化估计AI 解读

In this paper we investigate panel regression models with interactive fixed effects. We propose two new estimation methods that are based on minimizing convex objective functions. The first method minimizes the sum of squared residuals with a nuclear (trace) norm regularization. The second method minimizes the nuclear norm of the residuals. We establish the consistency of the two resulting estimators. Those estimators have a very important computational advantage compared to…

高维预测回归中的 LASSO 推断AI 解读

LASSO inflicts shrinkage bias on estimated coefficients, which undermines asymptotic normality and invalidates standard inferential procedures based on the t -statistic. Given cross sectional data, the desparsified LASSO has emerged as a well-known remedy for correcting the shrinkage bias. In the context of high dimensional predictive regression, the desparsified LASSO faces an additional challenge: the Stambaugh bias arising from nonstationary regressors modeled as local…

是否应利用辅助网络信息改进大型协方差矩阵估计？AI 解读

This paper uses the auxiliary network information, observed in addition to the original sample, to infer latent network structures in the population correlation matrix and thus improve high-dimensional covariance matrix estimation. Building on estimated Location Indicator and Relative Importance matrices, we propose two Network-Guided estimators. Network-Guided Thresholding uses auxiliary network data to regularize the large and small elements in the sample covariance…