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具有固定效应的广义变换模型的非参数估计AI 解读

This paper considers a generalized panel data transformation model with fixed effects where the structural function is assumed to be additive. In our model, no parametric assumptions are imposed on the transformation function, the structural function, or the distribution of the idiosyncratic error term. The model is widely applicable and includes many popular panel data models as special cases. We propose a kernel-based nonparametric estimator for the structural function.…

双重差分推断：独立聚类假设有多可信？AI 解读

Summary We analyze the challenges for inference in difference‐in‐differences (DID) when there is spatial correlation. We present novel theoretical insights and empirical evidence on the settings in which ignoring spatial correlation should lead to more or less distortions in DID applications. We show that details, such as the time frame used in the estimation, the choice of the treated and control groups, and the choice of the estimator, are key determinants of distortions…

重印：异质面板中的单位根检验AI 解读

This paper proposes unit root tests for dynamic heterogeneous panels based on the mean of individual unit root statistics. In particular it proposes a standardized t-bar test statistic based on the (augmented) Dickey–Fuller statistics averaged across the groups. Under a general setting this statistic is shown to converge in probability to a standard normal variate sequentially with T (the time series dimension) →∞, followed by N (the cross sectional dimension) →∞. A diagonal…

重印：动态面板模型的初始条件与矩限制AI 解读

Estimation of the dynamic error components model is considered using two alternative linear estimators that are designed to improve the properties of the standard first-differenced GMM estimator. Both estimators require restrictions on the initial conditions process. Asymptotic efficiency comparisons and Monte Carlo simulations for the simple AR(1) model demonstrate the dramatic improvement in performance of the proposed estimators compared to the usual first-differenced GMM…

摘要暂缺

初始条件与 Blundell–Bond 估计量AI 解读

We place the Blundell–Bond paper in the context of the early development of panel data estimators that accounted for unobserved heterogeneity, dynamics and persistent economic series. The initial work focused on appropriate econometric methods to estimate dynamic models using unbalanced panel data with many firms and/or individuals but covering a small number of time periods. Eliminating the unobserved firm-specific ‘fixed’ effects by taking first-differences and using as…

含缺失观测的高维潜在因子模型及其因果推断应用AI 解读

This paper develops the inferential theory for latent factor models estimated from large dimensional panel data with missing observations. We propose an easy-to-use all-purpose estimator for a latent factor model by applying principal component analysis to an adjusted covariance matrix estimated from partially observed panel data. We derive the asymptotic distribution for the estimated factors, loadings and the imputed values under an approximate factor model and general…

少量时间期数下交互固定效应模型的处理效应AI 解读

This paper considers identifying and estimating the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) when untreated potential outcomes are generated by an interactive fixed effects model. That is, in addition to time-period and individual fixed effects, we consider the case where there is an unobserved time invariant variable whose effect on untreated potential outcomes may change over time and which can therefore cause outcomes (in the absence of participating in the…

高维面板数据缺失值与协方差的因子插补AI 解读

Economists are blessed with a wealth of data for analysis, but more often than not, values in some entries of the data matrix are missing. Various methods have been proposed to handle missing observations in a few variables. We exploit the factor structure in panel data of large dimensions. Our tall-project algorithm first estimates the factors from a tall block in which data for all rows are observed, and projections of unit specific sample size are then used to estimate…

因子结构误差下网络溢出效应的收缩估计AI 解读

This paper explores the estimation of a panel data model with cross-sectional interaction that is flexible both in its approach to specifying the network of connections between cross-sectional units, and in controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. It is assumed that there are different sources of information available on a network, which can be represented in the form of multiple weights matrices. These matrices may reflect observed links, different measures of…

组成员身份与系数发生结构突变的面板分组模型估计AI 解读

This paper considers linear panel data models with a grouped pattern of heterogeneity when the latent group membership structure and/or the values of slope coefficients change at a break point. We propose a least squares approach to jointly estimate the break point, group membership structure, and coefficients. The proposed estimators are consistent, and the asymptotic distribution of the coefficient estimators is identical to that under known break point and group structure…

异质分布下的多维潜在分组结构AI 解读

This paper aims to identify the multi-dimensional latent grouped heterogeneity of distributional effects. We consider a panel quantile regression model with additive cross-section and time fixed effects. The cross-section effects and quantile slope coefficients are both characterized by grouped patterns of heterogeneity, but each unit can belong to different groups for cross-section effects and slopes. We propose a composite-quantile approach to jointly estimate…

用于车队车辆保险定价的分层随机效应模型AI 解读

Summary We propose a count‐data model with hierarchical random effects for the posterior insurance ratemaking of vehicles belonging to a fleet, by allowing random effects for the fleet, the vehicles, and time. We derive a simple closed‐form ratemaking formula based on a hierarchical random‐effects specification. We estimate the corresponding econometric model and compute insurance premiums according to the past experience of both the vehicle and the fleet. Our model can be…

时变处理边际结构Cox模型的工具变量估计AI 解读

Summary Robins (1998) introduced marginal structural models, a general class of counterfactual models for the joint effects of time-varying treatments in complex longitudinal studies subject to time-varying confounding. Robins (1998) established the identification of marginal structural model parameters under a sequential randomization assumption, which rules out unmeasured confounding of treatment assignment over time. The marginal structural Cox model is one of the most…

高维潜在面板分位数回归及其资产定价应用AI 解读

We propose a generalization of the linear panel quantile regression model to accommodate both sparse and dense parts: sparse means that while the number of covariates available is large, potentially only a much smaller number of them have a nonzero impact on each conditional quantile of the response variable; while the dense part is represent by a low-rank matrix that can be approximated by latent factors and their loadings. Such a structure poses problems for traditional…

含固定效应的时变变换模型识别及家庭资源份额应用AI 解读

We provide new results showing identification of a large class of fixed-T panel models, where the response variable is an unknown, weakly monotone, time-varying transformation of a latent linear index of fixed effects, regressors, and an error term drawn from an unknown stationary distribution. Our results identify the transformation, the coefficient on regressors, and features of the distribution of the fixed effects. We then develop a full-commitment intertemporal…

纵向数据的超高维分位数回归：血压分析应用AI 解读

Despite major advances in research and treatment, identifying important genotype risk factors for high blood pressure remains challenging. Traditional genome-wide association studies (GWAS) focus on one single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) at a time. We aim to select among over half a million SNPs along with time-varying phenotype variables via simultaneous modeling and variable selection, focusing on the most dangerous blood pressure levels at high quantiles. Taking…

通过匹配恢复潜在变量AI 解读

We propose an optimal-transport-based matching method to nonparametrically estimate linear models with independent latent variables. The method consists in generating pseudo-observations from the latent variables, so that the Euclidean distance between the model’s predictions and their matched counterparts in the data is minimized. We show that our nonparametric estimator is consistent, and we document that it performs well in simulated data. We apply this method to study…

利用 PSID 估计男性劳动收入波动的变化趋势AI 解读

The Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) has been the workhorse dataset used to estimate trends in U.S. earnings volatility at the individual level. We provide updated estimates for male earnings volatility using additional years of data. The analysis confirms prior work showing upward trends in the 1970s and 1980s, with a near doubling of the level of volatility over that period. The results also confirm prior work showing a resumption of an upward trend starting in the…

允许非强因子的面板回归：因子与载荷增广估计AI 解读

This article considers linear panel data models where the dependence of the regressors and the unobservables is modeled through a factor structure. The number of time periods and the sample size both go to infinity. Unlike in most existing methods for the estimation of this type of models, nonstrong factors are allowed and the number of factors can grow to infinity with the sample size. We study a class of two-step estimators of the regression coefficients. In the first…

高维时间序列条件协方差矩阵预测：广义动态因子方法AI 解读

Based on a General Dynamic Factor Model with infinite-dimensional factor space and MGARCH volatility models, we develop new estimation and forecasting procedures for conditional covariance matrices in high-dimensional time series. The finite-sample performance of our approach is evaluated via Monte Carlo experiments and outperforms the most alternative methods. This new approach is also used to construct minimum one-step-ahead variance portfolios for a high-dimensional panel…

具有内生投入与相关随机成分的面板随机前沿模型AI 解读

In this article, we consider a panel stochastic frontier model in which the composite error term εit has four components, that is, εit=τi−ηi+vit−uit, where ηi and uit are persistent and transient inefficiency components, τi consists of the random firm effects and vit is the random noise. Two distinguishing features of the proposed model are (i) the inputs are allowed to be correlated with one or more of the error components in the production function; (ii) time-invariant and…

含不可观测异质性的空间面板分位数模型AI 解读

This paper introduces a spatial panel quantile model with unobserved heterogeneity. The proposed model is capable of capturing high-dimensional cross-sectional dependence and allows heterogeneous regression coefficients. For estimating model parameters, a new estimation procedure is proposed. When both the time and cross-sectional dimensions of the panel go to infinity, the uniform consistency and the asymptotic normality of the estimated parameters are established. In order…

同根异叶：面板数据中的时间序列与横截面方法AI 解读

One dominant approach to evaluate the causal effect of a treatment is through panel data analysis, whereby the behaviors of multiple units are observed over time. The information across time and units motivates two general approaches: (i) horizontal regression (i.e., unconfoundedness), which exploits time series patterns, and (ii) vertical regression (e.g., synthetic controls), which exploits cross‐sectional patterns. Conventional wisdom often considers the two approaches to…