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动态资产定价模型的回归估计AI 解读

We propose regression-based estimators for beta representations of dynamic asset pricing models with an affine pricing kernel specification. We allow for state variables that are cross-sectional pricing factors, forecasting variables for the price of risk, and factors that are both. The estimators explicitly allow for time-varying prices of risk, time-varying betas, and serially dependent pricing factors. Our approach nests the Fama-MacBeth two-pass estimator as a special…

时间序列自归一化：近期进展综述AI 解读

This article reviews some recent developments on the inference of time series data using the self-normalized approach. We aim to provide a detailed discussion about the use of self-normalization in different contexts and highlight distinctive feature associated with each problem and connections among these recent developments. The topics covered include: confidence interval construction for a parameter in a weakly dependent stationary time series setting, change point…

协变量聚合的群组检测数据中患病率的参数与非参数估计AI 解读

Group testing is a technique employed in large screening studies involving infectious disease, where individuals in the study are grouped before being observed. Parametric and nonparametric estimators of conditional prevalence have been developed in the group testing literature, in the case where the binary variable indicating the disease status is available only for the group, but the explanatory variable is observed for each individual. However, for reasons such as the…

删失与内生性下的处理效应AI 解读

This article develops a nonparametric approach to identification and estimation of treatment effects on censored outcomes when treatment may be endogenous and have arbitrarily heterogenous effects. Identification is based on an instrumental variable that satisfies the exclusion and monotonicity conditions standard in the local average treatment effects framework. The article proposes a censored quantile treatment effects estimator, derives its asymptotic distribution, and…

Statistical inference on conditional dependence is essential in many fields including genetic association studies and graphical models. The classic measures focus on linear conditional correlations, and are incapable of characterizing non-linear conditional relationship including non-monotonic relationship. To overcome this limitation, we introduces a nonparametric measure of conditional dependence for multivariate random variables with arbitrary dimensions. Our measure…

高维均值向量的非参数多元检验AI 解读

This work is concerned with testing the population mean vector of nonnormal high-dimensional multivariate data. Several tests for high-dimensional mean vector, based on modifying the classical Hotelling T2 test, have been proposed in the literature. Despite their usefulness, they tend to have unsatisfactory power performance for heavy-tailed multivariate data, which frequently arise in genomics and quantitative finance. This article proposes a novel high-dimensional…

不可忽略缺失数据下广义线性模型的半参数伪似然AI 解读

We consider identifiability and estimation in a generalized linear model in which the response variable and some covariates have missing values and the missing data mechanism is nonignorable and unspecified. We adopt a pseudo-likelihood approach that makes use of an instrumental variable to help identifying unknown parameters in the presence of nonignorable missing data. Explicit conditions for the identifiability of parameters are given. Some asymptotic properties of the…

连续处理效应的一致半参数有效估计AI 解读

This article studies identification, estimation, and inference of general unconditional treatment effects models with continuous treatment under the ignorability assumption. We show identification of the parameters of interest, the dose–response functions, under the assumption that selection to treatment is based on observables. We propose a semiparametric two-step estimator, and consider estimation of the dose–response functions through moment restriction models with…

混合不同收敛速度估计量的简明公式AI 解读

Suppose that two estimators, θ^S,n and θ^N,n, are available for estimating an unknown parameter θ, and are known to have convergence rates n1/2 and rn = o(n1/2), respectively, based on a sample of size n. Typically, the more efficient estimator θ^S,n is less robust than θ^N,n, and a definitive choice cannot be easily made between them under practical circumstances. We propose a simple mixture estimator, in the form of a linear combination of θ^S,n and θ^N,n, which…

样本选择与不依从下的处理效应界：Job Corps的工资影响AI 解读

Randomized and natural experiments are commonly used in economics and other social science fields to estimate the effect of programs and interventions. Even when employing experimental data, assessing the impact of a treatment is often complicated by the presence of sample selection (outcomes are only observed for a selected group) and noncompliance (some treatment group individuals do not receive the treatment while some control individuals do). We address both of these…

条件平均处理效应的估计AI 解读

We consider a functional parameter called the conditional average treatment effect (CATE), designed to capture the heterogeneity of a treatment effect across subpopulations when the unconfoundedness assumption applies. In contrast to quantile regressions, the subpopulations of interest are defined in terms of the possible values of a set of continuous covariates rather than the quantiles of the potential outcome distributions. We show that the CATE parameter is…

自适应后验集中速率AI 解读

We investigate the problem of deriving posterior concentration rates under different loss functions in nonparametric Bayes. We first provide a lower bound on posterior coverages of shrinking neighbourhoods that relates the metric or loss under which the shrinking neighbourhood is considered, and an intrinsic pre-metric linked to frequentist separation rates. In the Gaussian white noise model, we construct feasible priors based on a spike and slab procedure reminiscent of…

高维协变量非线性交互的广义加性系数模型估计与推断AI 解读

In the low-dimensional case, the generalized additive coefficient model (GACM) proposed by Xue and Yang [Statist. Sinica 16 (2006) 1423–1446] has been demonstrated to be a powerful tool for studying nonlinear interaction effects of variables. In this paper, we propose estimation and inference procedures for the GACM when the dimension of the variables is high. Specifically, we propose a groupwise penalization based procedure to distinguish significant covariates for the…

单调函数的非参数置信区间AI 解读

We study nonparametric isotonic confidence intervals for monotone functions. In [Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 1699–1731], pointwise confidence intervals, based on likelihood ratio tests using the restricted and unrestricted MLE in the current status model, are introduced. We extend the method to the treatment of other models with monotone functions, and demonstrate our method with a new proof of the results of Banerjee–Wellner [Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 1699–1731] and also by…

重复测量结果的函数单指标广义部分线性模型：核与样条融合平滑AI 解读

We propose a generalized partially linear functional single index risk score model for repeatedly measured outcomes where the index itself is a function of time. We fuse the nonparametric kernel method and regression spline method, and modify the generalized estimating equation to facilitate estimation and inference. We use local smoothing kernel to estimate the unspecified coefficient functions of time, and use B-splines to estimate the unspecified function of the single…

利用分位数进行面板非参数识别AI 解读

This paper considers identification and estimation of ceteris paribus effects of continuous regressors in nonseparable panel models with time homogeneity. The effects of interest are derivatives of the average and quantile structural functions of the model. We find that these derivatives are identified with two time periods for “stayers”, i.e. for individuals with the same regressor values in two time periods. We show that the identification results carry over to models that…

具有固定效应的异质面板半参数模型AI 解读

This paper develops methodology for semiparametric panel data models in a setting where both the time series and the cross section are large. Such settings are common in finance and other areas of economics. Our model allows for heterogeneous nonparametric covariate effects as well as unobserved time and individual specific effects that may depend on the covariates in an arbitrary way. To model the covariate effects parsimoniously, we impose a dimensionality reducing common…

摘要暂缺

时间聚合数据下动态离散模型的估计AI 解读

An important component in dynamic discrete choice models and dynamic discrete games is the transition density of state variables from the current period to the next period. Most empirical dynamic discrete choice models identify the theoretical time interval in the behavioral model with that observed in the data set. However, many empirical data sets are time aggregated. In this paper, we show that when the time interval in the behavioral theory model differs from that in the…

弱依赖与弱条件下级数估计量的最优一致收敛率及渐近正态性AI 解读

We show that spline and wavelet series regression estimators for weakly dependent regressors attain the optimal uniform (i.e. sup-norm) convergence rate (n/logn)−p/(2p+d) of Stone (1982), where d is the number of regressors and p is the smoothness of the regression function. The optimal rate is achieved even for heavy-tailed martingale difference errors with finite (2+(d/p))th absolute moment for d/p<2. We also establish the asymptotic normality of t statistics for possibly…

非参数条件分位数导数函数估计中的最优平滑AI 解读

Marginal effect in nonparametric quantile regression is of special interest as it quantitatively measures how one unit change in explanatory variable heterogeneously affects dependent variable ceteris paribus at distinct quantiles. In this paper, we propose a data-driven bandwidth selection procedure based on the gradient of an unknown quantile regression function. Our method delivers the bandwidth with the oracle property in the sense that it is asymptotically equivalent to…

处理效应估计：中国2008年经济刺激计划案例AI 解读

Researchers often face the challenge of estimating the counterfactuals to evaluate the treatment effects. Hsiao et al. (2012) propose a method that offers more flexibilities by allowing the influence of the unobservable latent factors to vary cross-section. This paper relaxes the linear conditional mean assumption in their method by extending it to a semi-parametric setting. The asymptotic distribution properties of the average treatment effect estimator is derived and…

固定效应面板部分指定Tobit回归的估计AI 解读

This paper presents an estimation of a partly specified Tobit model with fixed effects by extending the symmetric trimming procedure proposed in Honoré (1992). Under some sufficient conditions, we present conditions to identify both the parametric and the nonparametric component of the unknown parameter. Under some sufficient conditions, we establish that the proposed estimates are consistent and the estimates of the parametric component are asymptotically normally…

固定效应非参数面板模型中的误差序列相关检验AI 解读

In this paper we consider the problem of testing serial correlation in fixed effects panel data model in a nonparametric framework. Using asymptotic results developed in Su and Lu (2013), we show that our test statistic has a standard normal distribution under the null hypothesis of zero serial correlation. The test statistic diverges to infinity at the rate of N under the alternative hypothesis that error is serially correlated, where N is the cross sectional sample size.…