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具有残差指标结构的非参数联立方程模型识别AI 解读

We present new identification results for a class of nonseparable nonparametric simultaneous equations models introduced by Matzkin (2008). These models combine traditional exclusion restrictions with a requirement that each structural error enter through a “residual index.” Our identification results are constructive and encompass a range of special cases with varying demands on the exogenous variation provided by instruments and the shape of the joint density of the…

处理变量误测且内生时的异质性处理效应AI 解读

This paper studies the identifying power of an instrumental variable in the nonparametric heterogeneous treatment effect framework when a binary treatment is mismeasured and endogenous. Using a binary instrumental variable, I characterize the sharp identified set for the local average treatment effect under the exclusion restriction of an instrument and the deterministic monotonicity of the true treatment in the instrument. Even allowing for general measurement error (e.g.,…

随机系数模型的设定检验AI 解读

In this paper, we suggest and analyze a new class of specification tests for random coefficient models. These tests allow to assess the validity of central structural features of the model, in particular linearity in coefficients, generalizations of this notion like a known nonlinear functional relationship, or degeneracy of the distribution of a random coefficient, that is, whether a coefficient is fixed or random, including whether an associated variable can be omitted…

相互依赖的持续时间：一个新模型AI 解读

This paper introduces a bivariate version of the generalized accelerated failure time model. It allows for simultaneity in the econometric sense that the two realized outcomes depend structurally on each other. Another feature of the proposed model is that it will generate equal durations with positive probability. Our approach takes a stylized economic model that leads to a univariate generalized accelerated failure time model as a starting point. In this model, agents…

离散选择的实证福利分析：若干一般结果AI 解读

This paper develops nonparametric methods for welfare‐analysis of economic changes in the common setting of multinomial choice. The results cover (a) simultaneous price‐change of multiple alternatives, (b) introduction/elimination of an option, (c) changes in choice‐characteristics, and (d) choice among nonexclusive alternatives. In these cases, Marshallian consumer surplus becomes path‐dependent, but Hicksian welfare remains well‐defined. We demonstrate that under…

断点回归何时有效？来自随机选举结果的证据AI 解读

We use elections data in which a large number of ties in vote counts between candidates are resolved via a lottery to study the personal incumbency advantage. We benchmark non‐experimental regression discontinuity design (RDD) estimates against the estimate produced by this experiment that takes place exactly at the cutoff. The experimental estimate suggests that there is no personal incumbency advantage. In contrast, conventional local polynomial RDD estimates suggest a…

粒子Gibbs采样器的分块策略与稳定性AI 解读

Sampling from the posterior probability distribution of the latent states of a hidden Markov model is nontrivial even in the context of Markov chain Monte Carlo. To address this, Andrieu et al. (2010) proposed a way of using a particle filter to construct a Markov kernel that leaves the posterior distribution invariant. Recent theoretical results have established the uniform ergodicity of this Markov kernel and shown that the mixing rate does not deteriorate provided the…

平均处理效应的双重稳健非参数推断AI 解读

Summary Doubly robust estimators are widely used to draw inference about the average effect of a treatment. Such estimators are consistent for the effect of interest if either one of two nuisance parameters is consistently estimated. However, if flexible, data-adaptive estimators of these nuisance parameters are used, double robustness does not readily extend to inference. We present a general theoretical study of the behaviour of doubly robust estimators of an average…

半参数因果推断中的 Cp 模型选择准则AI 解读

Summary For marginal structural models, which play an important role in causal inference, we consider a model selection problem within a semiparametric framework using inverse-probability-weighted estimation or doubly robust estimation. In this framework, the modelling target is a potential outcome that may be missing, so there is no classical information criterion. We define a mean squared error for treating the potential outcome and derive an asymptotic unbiased estimator…

病例对照研究中复杂多基因与环境交互作用的半参数分析AI 解读

Many methods have recently been proposed for efficient analysis of case-control studies of gene-environment interactions using a retrospective likelihood framework that exploits the natural assumption of gene-environment independence in the underlying population. However, for polygenic modelling of gene-environment interactions, which is a topic of increasing scientific interest, applications of retrospective methods have been limited due to a requirement in the literature…

贝叶斯局部极值样条AI 解读

Summary We consider shape-restricted nonparametric regression on a closed set $\mathcal{X} \subset \mathbb{R},$ where it is reasonable to assume that the function has no more than $H$ local extrema interior to $\mathcal{X}$. Following a Bayesian approach we develop a nonparametric prior over a novel class of local extremum splines. This approach is shown to be consistent when modelling any continuously differentiable function within the class considered, and we use itto…

标签未知时概率质量函数的估计AI 解读

In the context of a species sampling problem, we discuss a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator for the underlying probability mass function. The estimator is known in the computer science literature as the high profile estimator. We prove strong consistency and derive the rates of convergence, for an extended model version of the estimator. We also study a sieved estimator for which similar consistency results are derived. Numerical computation of the sieved estimator…

一致随机序的非参数拟合优度检验AI 解读

We propose $L^{p}$ distance-based goodness-of-fit (GOF) tests for uniform stochastic ordering with two continuous distributions $F$ and $G$, both of which are unknown. Our tests are motivated by the fact that when $F$ and $G$ are uniformly stochastically ordered, the ordinal dominance curve $R=FG^{-1}$ is star-shaped. We derive asymptotic distributions and prove that our testing procedure has a unique least favorable configuration of $F$ and $G$ for $p\in [1,\infty]$. We use…

高斯白噪声模型中的自适应Bernstein–von Mises定理AI 解读

We investigate Bernstein–von Mises theorems for adaptive nonparametric Bayesian procedures in the canonical Gaussian white noise model. We consider both a Hilbert space and multiscale setting with applications in $L^{2}$ and $L^{\infty}$, respectively. This provides a theoretical justification for plug-in procedures, for example the use of certain credible sets for sufficiently smooth linear functionals. We use this general approach to construct optimal frequentist…

高维半参数回归的似然比推断框架AI 解读

We propose a new inferential framework for high-dimensional semiparametric generalized linear models. This framework addresses a variety of challenging problems in high-dimensional data analysis, including incomplete data, selection bias and heterogeneity. Our work has three main contributions: (i) We develop a regularized statistical chromatography approach to infer the parameter of interest under the proposed semiparametric generalized linear model without the need of…

利用因子模型进行充分预测AI 解读

We consider forecasting a single time series when there is a large number of predictors and a possible nonlinear effect. The dimensionality was first reduced via a high-dimensional factor model implemented by the principal component analysis. Using the extracted factors, we develop a novel forecasting method called the sufficient forecasting, which provides a set of sufficient predictive indices, inferred from high-dimensional predictors, to deliver additional predictive…

私人类型相关的二元博弈：模型相容性与识别AI 解读

This paper studies the rationalization and identification of binary games where players have correlated private types. Allowing for type correlation is crucial in global games and in models with social interactions as it represents correlated private information and homophily, respectively. Our approach is fully nonparametric in the joint distribution of types and the strategic effects in the payoffs. First, under monotone pure Bayesian Nash Equilibrium strategy, we…

非交换潜变量模型的非参数估计AI 解读

We propose a two-step method to nonparametrically estimate multivariate models in which the observed outcomes are independent conditional on a discrete latent variable. Applications include microeconometric models with unobserved types of agents, regime-switching models, and models with misclassification error. In the first step, we estimate weights that transform moments of the marginal distribution of the data into moments of the conditional distribution of the data for…

广义动态因子模型与波动率：估计和预测AI 解读

In large panels of financial time series with dynamic factor structure on the levels or returns, the volatilities of the common and idiosyncratic components often exhibit strong correlations, indicating that both are exposed to the same market volatility shocks. This suggests, alongside the dynamic factor decomposition of returns, a dynamic factor decomposition of volatilities or volatility proxies. Based on this observation, Barigozzi and Hallin (2016) proposed an entirely…

结构非参数协整回归在最大定义域上的一致收敛速率AI 解读

This paper presents uniform convergence rates for kernel regression estimators, in the setting of a structural nonlinear cointegrating regression model. We generalise the existing literature in three ways. First, the domain to which these rates apply is much wider than the domains that have been considered in the existing literature, and can be chosen so as to contain as large a fraction of the sample as desired in the limit. Second, our results allow the regression…

利用广义平顶已实现核估计含噪资产价格的二次变差谱AI 解读

This paper analyzes a generalized class of flat-top realized kernel estimators for the quadratic variation spectrum, that is, the decomposition of quadratic variation into integrated variance and jump variation. The underlying log-price process is contaminated by additive noise, which consists of two orthogonal components to accommodate α -mixing dependent exogenous noise and an asymptotically non-degenerate endogenous correlation structure. In the absence of jumps, the…

Kendall 秩相关系数变化检验AI 解读

For a bivariate time series (( X i , Y i )) i =1,..., n , we want to detect whether the correlation between X i and Y i stays constant for all i = 1,... n . We propose a nonparametric change-point test statistic based on Kendall’s tau. The asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis of no change follows from a new U -statistic invariance principle for dependent processes. Assuming a single change-point, we show that the location of the change-point is consistently…

结构经济模型中随机系数的半参数估计AI 解读

This paper discusses nonparametric estimation of the distribution of random coefficients in a structural model that is nonlinear in the random coefficients. We establish that the problem of recovering the probability density function ( pdf ) of random parameters falls into the class of convexly-constrained inverse problems. The framework offers an estimation method that separates computational solution of the structural model from estimation. We first discuss nonparametric…

直接与间接处理效应：工具变量下的因果链与中介分析AI 解读

Summary The paper discusses the non-parametric identification of causal direct and indirect effects of a binary treatment based on instrumental variables. We identify the indirect effect, which operates through a mediator (i.e. intermediate variable) that is situated on the causal path between the treatment and the outcome, as well as the unmediated direct effect of the treatment by using distinct instruments for the endogenous treatment and the endogenous mediator. We…