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含持续与暂时无效率的半参数随机前沿模型贝叶斯估计AI 解读

We propose kernel estimators for the densities of persistent and transient inefficiencies in a generalized panel data stochastic frontier model. This approach relaxes the conventional distributional assumptions imposed on the inefficiencies, thereby increasing robustness. A Bayesian sampling algorithm is developed to estimate all model parameters and unobserved entities, as well as the bandwidths needed to construct the densities of persistent and transient inefficiencies.…

序数 Probit 模型的半参数贝叶斯估计：跨国、年龄与性别的生活满意度AI 解读

We employ a novel semiparametric Bayesian ordinal probit model to re-examine the relationships between age and life satisfaction (“happiness”) across countries and gender. Within our ordinal choice framework we introduce a new scheme for cutpoint simulation and develop a locally adaptive method for smoothing an otherwise erratic collection of age dummy variable coefficients. We find strong evidence that employment status is deeply intertwined with the reported happiness of…

用于域泛化的域特定非参数回归AI 解读

We propose a domain-specific regression approach for domain generalization, taking into account possible heterogeneity among the datasets from different sources. In the proposed model, the domain-specific features are characterized through linear functionals of the marginal source distributions. The predictors are combined with the domain-specific linear functionals as inputs in the model. Using the source data sets, we estimate the domain-index function and the regression…

从树集成中提取可解释模型：计算与统计视角AI 解读

Tree ensembles are non-parametric methods widely recognized for their accuracy and ability to capture complex interactions. While these models excel at prediction, they are difficult to interpret and may fail to uncover useful relationships in the data. We propose an estimator to extract compact sets of decision rules from tree ensembles. The extracted models are accurate and can be manually examined to reveal relationships between the predictors and the response. A key…

混杂变量非可忽略缺失下中介分析的有效非参数推断AI 解读

Mediation analysis is widely used for exploring treatment mechanisms; however, it faces challenges when nonignorable missing confounders are present. Efficient inference of mediation effects and the efficiency loss due to nonignorable missingness have been rarely studied in the literature because of the difficulties arising from the ill-posed inverse problem. In this paper, we propose a general shadow variable framework for identifying mediation effects, allowing shadow…

时空极端事件的模式AI 解读

In environmental science applications, extreme events frequently exhibit a complex spatio-temporal structure, which is difficult to describe flexibly and estimate in a computationally efficient way using state-of-art parametric extreme-value models. In this paper, we propose a computationally-cheap non-parametric approach to investigate the probability distribution of temporal clusters of spatial extremes, and study within-cluster patterns with respect to various…

利用双重机器学习估计直接与间接分位数处理效应AI 解读

We propose a framework to disentangle the quantile treatment effect of a binary treatment at a specific rank into an indirect quantile treatment effect that operates through a mediator and an unmediated direct quantile treatment effect. We establish identification results for these effects under the sequential ignorability assumption and propose double/debiased machine learning estimators, based on the efficient influence functions of the cumulative distribution functions of…

带函数型协变量的随机区块模型：变分非参数推断AI 解读

We propose a functional stochastic block model whose vertices involve functional data information. This new model extends the classic stochastic block model with vector-valued nodal information, and finds applications in real-world networks whose nodal information could be functional curves. Examples include international trade data in which a network vertex (country) is associated with the annual or quarterly GDP over a certain time period, and MyFitnessPal data in which a…

协变量增强的累积和泡沫监测程序AI 解读

We explore how information from covariates can be incorporated into the CUSUM-based real-time monitoring procedure for explosive asset price bubbles developed in Homm and Breitung (2012, Journal of Financial Econometrics 10, 198–231). Where dynamic covariates are present in the data generating process (DGP), the false positive rate (FPR) of the basic CUSUM procedure, which is based on the assumption that prices follow a univariate DGP, under the null of no explosivity will…

含议价机制双向拍卖的非参数识别与估计AI 解读

This article studies the nonparametric identification and estimation of double auctions with one buyer and one seller. This model assumes that both bidders submit their own sealed bids, and the transaction price is determined by a weighted average between the submitted bids when the buyer’s offer is higher than the seller’s ask. It captures the bargaining process between two parties. Working within this double auction model, we first establish the nonparametric…

多元对称下基于最优传输的分布无关符号、秩与单样本位置检验AI 解读

We propose a novel and unified framework for distribution-free testing under multivariate symmetry (that includes central symmetry, sign symmetry, spherical symmetry, etc.) based on the theory of optimal transport. Our approach leads to notions of distribution-free generalized multivariate signs, absolute ranks and signed-ranks. As a consequence, we develop analogues of the sign and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests that share many of the appealing properties of their…

利用情感分析改进投资决策：概率排序框架AI 解读

We develop a probabilistic framework to extract sentiment information from text by training a model to predict and rank sentiments in newly encountered documents. Our approach imposes a joint semi-parametric model on text and ordinal response variables, addressing the challenges of sparse sentiment signals and complex response distributions. Through a word screening procedure and the use of normalized ranks, our approach achieves consistent sentiment ranking without…

离散观测函数型数据的协方差检验：何时有效、如何实施AI 解读

For covariance test in functional data analysis, existing methods are developed only for fully observed curves, whereas in practice, trajectories are typically observed discretely and with noise. To bridge this gap, we employ a pool-smoothing strategy to construct an FPC-based test statistic, allowing the number of estimated eigenfunctions to grow with the sample size. This yields a consistently nonparametric test, while the challenge arises from the concurrence of diverging…

极值图模型中的参数与非参数对称性AI 解读

Abstract Coloured graphical models provide a parsimonious approach to modeling high-dimensional data by exploiting symmetries in the model parameters. In this work, we introduce the notion of colouring for extremal graphical models on generalized multivariate Pareto distributions, a natural class of limiting distributions for threshold exceedances. Thanks to a stability property of the generalized multivariate Pareto distributions, coloured extremal tree models can be…

迈向个体层面数据融合的统一半参数理论AI 解读

We consider inference about a finite-dimensional parameter integrating samples from independent sources. A recently developed theory considers scenarios where sources align with subsets of the conditional distributions of a single factorization of the joint target distribution. While this theory applies in many settings, it falls short in important data fusion problems, such as two-sample instrumental variable analysis, settings that integrate data from epidemiological…

Vecchia 高斯过程的概率与统计性质AI 解读

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are widely used to model dependencies in spatial statistics and machine learning. However, exact inference is computationally intractable for GP regression, with a time complexity of O(n3). The Vecchia approximation scales up computation by introducing sparsity into the spatial dependency structure, represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Despite its practical popularity, this approach lacks rigorous theoretical foundations, and the choice of…

马尔可夫折棒过程AI 解读

Stick-breaking has a long history and is one of the most popular procedures for constructing random discrete distributions in statistics and machine learning. In particular, due to their intuitive construction and computational tractability they are ubiquitous in modern Bayesian nonparametric inference. Most widely used models, such as the Dirichlet and the Pitman–Yor processes, rely on i.i.d. or independent length variables. Here, we pursue a completely unexplored research…

利用最优传输构建多属性数据的Copula图模型AI 解读

Abstract Motivated by modern data types such as images and multi-view data, the multi-attribute graphical model aims to uncover conditional independence structures among vector-valued nodes. Under the Gaussian assumption, such independence is encoded in blockwise zeros of the precision matrix. To relax the restrictive Gaussian assumption, we propose a semiparametric multi-attribute graphical model leveraging a newly introduced cyclically monotone copula. This copula treats…

具有已知极点的密度及其导数：非参数估计的一致收敛率AI 解读

We study the uniform convergence rates of nonparametric estimators for a probability density function and its derivatives when the density has a known pole. Such situations arise in some structural microeconometric models, for example, in auction, labor, and consumer search, where uniform convergence rates of density functions are important for nonparametric and semiparametric estimation. Existing uniform convergence rates based on Rosenblatt’s kernel estimator are derived…

含潜变量的马尔可夫过程学习与识别AI 解读

We consider the problem of identifying the parameters of a time-homogeneous bivariate Markov chain when only one of the two variables is observable. We show that, subject to conditions that we spell out, the transition kernel and the distribution of the initial condition are uniquely recoverable (up to an arbitrary relabelling of the state space of the latent variable) from the joint distribution of four (or more) consecutive time-series observations. The result is,…

没有工具变量时的边际处理效应AI 解读

ABSTRACT We propose a method for defining, identifying, and estimating the marginal treatment effect (MTE) without imposing the instrumental variable (IV) assumptions of independence, exclusion, and separability (or monotonicity). Under a new definition of the MTE based on reduced‐form treatment error that is statistically independent of the covariates, we find that the relationship between the MTE and standard treatment parameters holds in the absence of IVs. We provide a…

存在非均衡行为的不完全信息离散博弈的非参数识别AI 解读

ABSTRACT This paper studies empirical discrete‐choice games with incomplete information under nonparametric specifications of both the payoff function and the distribution of private information. It relaxes the standard global equilibrium assumption —under which players follow equilibrium strategies for all realizations of the control variables—and introduces a weaker local equilibrium assumption that requires the equilibrium restriction only for some, but not all,…

缓冲储蓄行为的统计推断AI 解读

ABSTRACT There is an ongoing debate about the buffer‐stock saving hypothesis. This paper develops a formal test of the hypothesis by examining the sub‐unity of the marginal propensity to consume out of permanent income (MPCP). Our test relies on a novel estimator of the average derivative of a nonparametric consumption model, using constructed measures of latent permanent income shocks that accommodate nonparametric income distributions. Following Li and Vuong (1998), we use…

股票指数间的跳跃传染：来自期权市场的证据AI 解读

We analyze the contagious propagation of jumps among international stock market indices, using a rich panel of high-frequency stock and options data ( 692,892 option contracts) over the period 2006–2015. We propose a bivariate option pricing model designed to allow for time and space amplification of jumps in option markets. We develop a semi-parametric estimation procedure, which employs a continuum of moment conditions in GMM with implied states and non-parametric…