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Hellinger 相关系数AI 解读

In this article, the defining properties of any valid measure of the dependence between two continuous random variables are revisited and complemented with two original ones, shown to imply other usual postulates. While other popular choices are proved to violate some of these requirements, a class of dependence measures satisfying all of them is identified. One particular measure, that we call the Hellinger correlation, appears as a natural choice within that class due to…

可能存在水平突变时的积分阶数半参数检验AI 解读

Lobato and Robinson developed semiparametric tests for the null hypothesis that a series is weakly autocorrelated, or I(0), about a constant level, against fractionally integrated alternatives. These tests have the advantage that the user is not required to specify a parametric model for any weak autocorrelation present in the series. We extend this approach in two distinct ways. First, we show that it can be generalized to allow for testing of the null hypothesis that a…

依赖关系对欧洲市场风险的影响：非参数时变方法AI 解读

Multivariate dependence measures are crucial for risk management, where variables usually have heavy tails and non-Gaussian distributions. We propose a multivariate time varying Kendall’s tau estimator in a nonparametric context, allowing for local stationary variables. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator are provided. A simulation study is conducted which supports the idea of better performance than other related methods in many complex scenarios. The…

条件极端分位数的固定 k 推断AI 解读

We develop a new extreme value theory for repeated cross-sectional and longitudinal/panel data to construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals (CIs) for conditional extremal quantiles from a fixed number k of nearest-neighbor tail observations. As a by-product, we also construct CIs for extremal quantiles of coefficients in linear random coefficient models. For any fixed k, the CIs are uniformly valid without parametric assumptions over a set of nonparametric data…

非平稳波动率下的自适应协整检验AI 解读

This article develops a class of adaptive cointegration tests for multivariate time series with nonstationary volatility. Persistent changes in the innovation variance matrix of a vector autoregressive model lead to size distortions in conventional cointegration tests, which may be resolved using the wild bootstrap, as shown in recent work by Cavaliere, Rahbek, and Taylor. We show that it also leads to the possibility of constructing tests with higher power, by taking the…

以 copula 连接单变量 D-vine 的多元时间序列建模AI 解读

This article proposes a novel multivariate time series model named copula-linked univariate D-vines (CuDvine), which enables the simultaneous copula-based modeling of both temporal and cross-sectional dependence for multivariate time series. To construct CuDvine, we first build a semiparametric univariate D-vine time series model (uDvine) based on a D-vine. The uDvine generalizes the existing first-order copula-based Markov chain models to Markov chains of an…

正象限依赖双变量 Copula 的非参数估计与检验AI 解读

In many practical scenarios (e.g., finance, system reliability, etc.), it is often of interest to estimate a bivariate distribution and test for some desired association properties like positive quadrant dependent (PQD) or negative quadrant dependent (NQD). Often estimation and testing for PQD/NQD property are performed using copula models as it then eliminates the need for estimating marginal distributions. Many parametric copula families have been used that allow for…

抽样时点内生时积分波动率的拉普拉斯估计AI 解读

We study a class of nonparametric volatility estimators based on the Laplace transform, which are robust to the presence of the endogeneity of observation times. Asymptotic properties and feasible central limit theorems are established. In the presence of time endogeneity, our bias-corrected Laplace estimator takes advantage of the informational content of time endogeneity, which leads to narrower confidence bounds. The finite sample properties of the estimator are studied…

结合分位数回归与形状约束的加性边界稳健估计AI 解读

We consider the estimation of the boundary of a set when it is known to be sufficiently smooth, to satisfy certain shape constraints and to have an additive structure. Our proposed method is based on spline estimation of a conditional quantile regression and is resistant to outliers and/or extreme values in the data. This work is a desirable extension of existing works in the literature and can also be viewed as an alternative to existing estimators that have been used in…

混合型保险赔付数据的非参数 Copula 估计AI 解读

Multivariate claim data are common in insurance applications, for example, claims of each policyholder from different types of insurance coverages. Understanding the dependencies among such multivariate risks is critical to the solvency and profitability of insurers. Effectively modeling insurance claim data is challenging due to their special complexities. At the policyholder level, claim outcomes usually follow a two-part mixed distribution: a probability mass at zero…

核扩展随机神经网络AI 解读

Abstract The deep neural network suffers from many fundamental issues in machine learning. For example, it often gets trapped into a local minimum in training, and its prediction uncertainty is hard to be assessed. To address these issues, we propose the so-called kernel-expanded stochastic neural network (K-StoNet) model, which incorporates support vector regression as the first hidden layer and reformulates the neural network as a latent variable model. The former maps the…

异方差或无处理基准效应模型误设下最优个体化处理规则的高效学习AI 解读

Abstract Recent development in data-driven decision science has seen great advances in individualized decision making. Given data with individual covariates, treatment assignments and outcomes, researchers can search for the optimal individualized treatment rule (ITR) that maximizes the expected outcome. Existing methods typically require initial estimation of some nuisance models. The double robustness property that can protect from misspecification of either the…

利用Lasso进行效应修饰的选择后推断AI 解读

Abstract Effect modification occurs when the effect of the treatment on an outcome varies according to the level of other covariates and often has important implications in decision-making. When there are tens or hundreds of covariates, it becomes necessary to use the observed data to select a simpler model for effect modification and then make valid statistical inference. We propose a two-stage procedure to solve this problem. First, we use Robinson's transformation to…

未知零假设分布下的错误发现率控制：能否模拟理想程序？AI 解读

Classical multiple testing theory prescribes the null distribution, which is often too stringent an assumption for nowadays large scale experiments. This paper presents theoretical foundations to understand the limitations caused by ignoring the null distribution, and how it can be properly learned from the same data set, when possible. We explore this issue in the setting where the null distributions are Gaussian with unknown rescaling parameters (mean and variance) whereas…

基于平均 Fréchet 导数的函数型充分降维AI 解读

Sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) embodies a family of methods that aim for reduction of dimensionality without loss of information in a regression setting. In this article, we propose a new method for nonparametric function-on-function SDR, where both the response and the predictor are a function. We first develop the notions of functional central mean subspace and functional central subspace, which form the population targets of our functional SDR. We then introduce an…

基于 HSIC 的自适应独立性检验AI 解读

The Hilbert–Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) is a dependence measure based on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces that is widely used to test independence between two random vectors. Remains the delicate choice of the kernel. In this work, we develop a new HSIC-based aggregated procedure which avoids such a kernel choice, and provide theoretical guarantees for this procedure. To achieve this, on the one hand, we introduce non-asymptotic single tests based on Gaussian…

适用于非参数与半参数回归的参数化 Copula 估计AI 解读

We consider a multivariate response regression model where each coordinate is described by a location-scale non- or semiparametric regression and where the dependence structure of the “noise term” is described by a parametric copula. Our goal is to estimate the associated Euclidean copula parameter, given a sample of the response and the covariate. In the absence of the copula sample, the usual oracle ranks are no longer computable. Instead, we study the normal scores…

分布式非参数函数估计：最优收敛率与自适应代价AI 解读

Distributed minimax estimation and distributed adaptive estimation under communication constraints for Gaussian sequence model and white noise model are studied. The minimax rate of convergence for distributed estimation over a given Besov class, which serves as a benchmark for the cost of adaptation, is established. We then quantify the exact communication cost for adaptation and construct an optimally adaptive procedure for distributed estimation over a range of Besov…

最优传输定义的多元秩与分位数：一致性、速率和非参数检验AI 解读

In this paper, we study multivariate ranks and quantiles, defined using the theory of optimal transport, and build on the work of Chernozhukov et al. (Ann. Statist. 45 (2017) 223–256) and Hallin et al. (Ann. Statist. 49 (2021) 1139–1165). We study the characterization, computation and properties of the multivariate rank and quantile functions and their empirical counterparts. We derive the uniform consistency of these empirical estimates to their population versions, under…

高维无岭最小二乘插值中的意外现象AI 解读

Interpolators—estimators that achieve zero training error—have attracted growing attention in machine learning, mainly because state-of-the art neural networks appear to be models of this type. In this paper, we study minimum ℓ2 norm (“ridgeless”) interpolation least squares regression, focusing on the high-dimensional regime in which the number of unknown parameters p is of the same order as the number of samples n. We consider two different models for the feature…

网络矩统计量的 Edgeworth 展开AI 解读

Network method of moments (Ann. Statist. 39 (2011) 2280–2301) is an important tool for nonparametric network inference. However, there has been little investigation on accurate descriptions of the sampling distributions of network moment statistics. In this paper, we present the first higher-order accurate approximation to the sampling CDF of a studentized network moment by Edgeworth expansion. In sharp contrast to classical literature on noiseless U-statistics, we show that…

评《具有随机波动率和非共轭先验的大型贝叶斯向量自回归》AI 解读

Fully Bayesian inference in a vector autoregression with stochastic volatility (VAR-SV) typically relies on simulations from a multi-step Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Carriero et al. (2019) propose a new, faster, “triangular” algorithm (TA) to replace the systemwide algorithm (SWA) in the most time-consuming step of the VAR-SV’s standard MCMC algorithm. This paper analytically shows that the TA and SWA generally sample from different distributions, thereby…

高度持久预测变量下的半参数检验AI 解读

We address the issue of semiparametric efficiency in the bivariate regression problem with a highly persistent predictor, where the joint distribution of the innovations is regarded an infinite-dimensional nuisance parameter. Using a structural representation of the limit experiment and exploiting invariance relationships therein, we construct invariant point-optimal tests for the regression coefficient of interest. This approach naturally leads to a family of feasible tests…

时变模型的同时推断AI 解读

A general class of non-stationary time series is considered in this paper. We estimate the time-varying coefficients by using local linear M-estimation. For these estimators, weak Bahadur representations are obtained and are used to construct simultaneous confidence bands. For practical implementation, we propose a bootstrap based method to circumvent the slow logarithmic convergence of the theoretical simultaneous bands. Our results substantially generalize and unify the…