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The problem of estimating the number of binary responses that can be attributed to high levels of a continuous covariate is studied. The distribution of the covariate in the population is combined with the relative odds of response to produce a function, areas under which represent numbers of responses attributable to covariate values in that range. A combination of parametric and nonparametric smoothing is proposed. Consistent estimates of variance are developed as well as…

地震时间演化的贝叶斯分析AI 解读

We adopt a Bayesian approach to analyze the occurrence times of seismic events and their magnitudes. We choose an epidemic model for the process of occurrence times conditional on the observed magnitude values. The locations of, and dependencies between, the model parameters are determined on the basis of historical and physical information. The overall prior variability is deliberately made diffuse. We generate samples from the joint posterior distribution of the model…

单调剂量—响应曲线的估计AI 解读

Estimating monotone dose—response curves with independent, normal errors has been studied in detail in the literature. A simple procedure using a generalization of the studentized maximum modulus technique is proposed for constructing confidence bands for monotone regression functions. This procedure is shown to compare well with its predecessors. The center of this smooth and efficient confidence band is then used to estimate a smooth monotone regression function. Its…

地震时间演化的贝叶斯分析AI 解读

We adopt a Bayesian approach to analyze the occurrence times of seismic events and their magnitudes. We choose an epidemic model for the process of occurrence times conditional on the observed magnitude values. The locations of, and dependencies between, the model parameters are determined on the basis of historical and physical information. The overall prior variability is deliberately made diffuse. We generate samples from the joint posterior distribution of the model…

平均剩余寿命过程AI 解读

Yang and Hall and Wellner initiated investigations of the asymptotic uniform behaviour of mean residual life (MRL) processes. They obtained results holding true over fixed and expanding compact subintervals of $[0, \infty)$. In this exposition we study MRL processes over the whole positive half-line $[0, \infty)$. We describe classes of weight functions which enable us to establish the (a) strong uniform-over-$[0, \infty)$ consistency and (b)weak uniform-over-$[0, \infty)$ ap…

关于 Hall–Wellner 置信带猜想的反例AI 解读

Hall and Wellner proposed a natural extension of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov simultaneous confidence band for survival curve using the Kaplan-Meier estimator. They and Gill conjectured that the confidence band holds for all t up to the last observed failure time. A counterexample is given herein, showing that this may not always be true.

不完整生存数据中分位数函数的非参数似然比置信带AI 解读

The purpose of this paper is to derive confidence bands for quantile functions using a nonparametric likelihood ratio approach. The method is easy to implement and has several appealing properties. It applies to right-censored and left-truncated data, and it does not involve density estimation or even require the existence of a density. Previous approaches (e.g., bootstrap) have imposed smoothness conditions on the density. The performance of the proposed method is…

更不易包含零的非等变同时置信区间AI 解读

We present a procedure for finding simultaneous confidence intervals for the expectations μ = (μ j ) n j=1 of a set of independent random variables, identically distributed up to their location parameters, that yields intervals less likely to contain zero than the standard simultaneous confidence intervals for many μ ≠ 0. The procedure is defined implicitly by inverting a nonequivariant hypothesis test with a hyperrectangular acceptance region whose orientation depends on…

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多元 t 分布的路径长度不等式及其多重比较应用AI 解读

This article presents a new inequality for the multivariate-t distribution, which implies a new method for multiple comparisons whose foundation rests on a recent inequality due to Naiman. The new method is promising in view of the fact that it utilizes information (estimator intercorrelations) ignored by the most widely used multiple comparison methods yet is not computationally prohibitive, requiring only the numerical evaluation of a single one-dimensional integral. In…

面向多重假设检验的贝叶斯实验设计AI 解读

The problem of designing an optimal experiment for the purpose of performing one or more hypothesis tests is considered. The Bayesian decision theoretic approach is used to arrive at several new optimality criteria for this purpose. For a single hypothesis test, the resulting optimal designs are the well-known φ-optimal designs that minimize the posterior variance of the parameter being tested. For multiple tests, an experimental design must perform well under several…

更不易包含零的非等变同时置信区间AI 解读

We present a procedure for finding simultaneous confidence intervals for the expectations μ = (μ j ) n j=1 of a set of independent random variables, identically distributed up to their location parameters, that yields intervals less likely to contain zero than the standard simultaneous confidence intervals for many μ ≠ 0. The procedure is defined implicitly by inverting a nonequivariant hypothesis test with a hyperrectangular acceptance region whose orientation depends on…

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直接利用回归分位数构造线性模型置信集AI 解读

Direct use of the empirical quantile function provides a standard distribution-free approach to constructing confidence intervals and confidence bands for population quantiles. We apply this method to construct confidence intervals and confidence bands for regression quantiles and to construct prediction intervals based on sample regression quantiles. Comparison of the direct method with the studentization and the bootstrap methods are discussed. Simulation results show that…

密度函数的序贯置信带AI 解读

This paper proposes a fully sequential procedure for constructing a fixed-width confidence band for an unknown density on a finite interval and shows the procedure has the desired coverage probability asymptotically as the width of the band approaches zero. The procedure is based on a result of Bickel and Rosenblatt. Its implementation in the sequential setting cannot be obtained using Anscombe's theorem, because the normalized maximal deviations between the kernel estimate…

异方差误差下线性回归的同时置信带AI 解读

The Scheffé method may be used to construct simultaneous confidence bands for a regression surface for the whole predictor space. When the bands need only hold for a subset of that space, previous authors have described how the bands can be appropriately narrowed while still maintaining the desired level of confidence. Data with heteroscedastic errors occur often, and unless some transformation is feasible, there is no obvious way to construct bands using the current…

异方差误差下线性回归的同时置信带AI 解读

The Scheffé method may be used to construct simultaneous confidence bands for a regression surface for the whole predictor space. When the bands need only hold for a subset of that space, previous authors have described how the bands can be appropriately narrowed while still maintaining the desired level of confidence. Data with heteroscedastic errors occur often, and unless some transformation is feasible, there is no obvious way to construct bands using the current…

SUMMARY It is known that iterative weighted least squares (IWLS) does not merely yield a convenient way of fitting the general class of regression models considered by Green but is also a useful means of unifying techniques of model checking. However, an extension of these results to models containing nuisance or incidental parameters has made little progress beyond some special cases. Unfortunately, regression models with nuisance parameters that are not dispersion…

用于分位数同时置信区间的上下界分布AI 解读

We propose a new method for constructing parametric confidence intervals for quantiles of an unknown distribution. These confidence intervals are constructed so that the joint probability that all intervals simultaneously contain their respective percentiles is at least a preset value. Thus we may also use the set of either upper or lower confidence limits to define an upper (or lower) bound distribution function, which we call an upper (or lower) tolerance distribution…

分布函数的非参数似然置信带AI 解读

Berk and Jones described a nonparametric likelihood test of uniformity with greater asymptotic Bahadur efficiency than any weighted Kolmogorov–Smirnov test at any alternative to U[0, 1]. We invert this test to form confidence bands for a distribution function using Noé's recursion. Nonparametric likelihood bands are narrower in the tails and wider in the center than Kolmogorov-Smirnov bands and are asymmetric about the empirical cumulative distribution function. This article…

用于分位数同时置信区间的上下界分布AI 解读

We propose a new method for constructing parametric confidence intervals for quantiles of an unknown distribution. These confidence intervals are constructed so that the joint probability that all intervals simultaneously contain their respective percentiles is at least a preset value. Thus we may also use the set of either upper or lower confidence limits to define an upper (or lower) bound distribution function, which we call an upper (or lower) tolerance distribution…

形状约束密度的有限样本置信包络AI 解读

A conservative finite-sample simultaneous confidence envelope for a density can be found by solving a finite set of finite-dimensional linear programming problems if the density is known to be monotonic or to have at most $k$ modes relative to a positive weight function. The dimension of the problems is at most $(n/\log n)^{1/3}$, where $n$ is the number of observations. The linear programs find densities attaining the largest and smallest values at a point among cumulative…

多重假设检验的逐步重抽样方法AI 解读

This article introduces a method of multiple hypothesis testing that combines the idea of sequential multiple testing procedures with the structure of resampling methods. The method can be seen as an alternative to the analytic method of Dunnett and Tamhane, which requires a specific distributional form. Resampling incorporates the covariance structure of the data without the need for distributional assumptions. Recent work by Westfall and Young has shown that a step-down…